̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research

What impact will new technology have on tackling emissions?

sj387 — Mon, 21 Oct 2013 09:14:01 +0000

Computational models provide unparalleled insight into current and future demand for water, land and energy, and the impact these demands have on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the environment. What if we could also take into account the fast pace at which new technologies are evolving? This is the aim of a new project in the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Land Economy.

Dr Jean-Francois Mercure, who leads the research, asserts that building this factor into models will help understanding of the degree to which improvements in energy-consuming technologies and their adoption can help governments reduce emissions: “Technology comes to life through innovation, timely investments and policy incentives, and so it’s important to include technology diffusion and its pace in energy modelling.

“However, this is challenging and most models today attempt to calculate cost-optimal technology roadmaps based on current technology, which is not necessarily likely to happen, and which disregard the process by which new technology regimes come to existence, but also how old technologies endure.”

Technological change occurs constantly, either following innovations in industrial systems or through evolutions of behaviours, such as in the adoption of electric cars. Earlier this year, with funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Mercure began work on a computational modelling system that takes into account the profile of technology transitions in the past to project how new transitions could arise in the future.

To do so, he is collaborating with environmental scientists at the Tyndall Centre at the ̽��ֱ�� of East Anglia and at the Open ̽��ֱ��, policy advisors and researchers at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change and the Committee for Climate Change, and applied economists at Cambridge Econometrics.

Mercure believes that this will be the first time an energy–economy–environment model at the global level simultaneously considers technology diffusion in all sectors of energy use alongside natural resource constraints and the interaction between sectors.

“If the global power sector is to decarbonise by 2050 without there being significant economic costs then all countries must make a contribution to the development of renewable technologies,” he added.

“Take as an example the solar photovoltaic industry. Large investments in Germany enabled production costs of firms in China to decline significantly in recent years, which could not have occurred without such investments. Technology sectors typically face a classic vicious circle: established technologies thrive because they are established, and emerging technologies see barriers to their diffusion due to the lock-in of established technologies. This will be the case unless an emerging technology is a radical improvement over established technologies, or it benefits from strong policy support and investment. This applies to many other sectors such as mobility technologies, industry and household appliances.”

Professor Douglas Crawford-Brown, Director of 4CMR, is excited by the prospects of this new modelling: “Dr Mercure’s work sits nicely at the intersection of aggregated economic sectors and the decisions of individual investors. He is plotting an intermediate ground in which both theories of investor behaviour and empirical econometrics allow for much greater insights into energy supply and demand.”

Mercure’s recent research has focused on the global electricity sector, which currently emits 38% of global fuel combustion emissions mostly through the use of fossil fuels. ̽��ֱ��new project will extend the model to all major energy-consuming sectors, including transport, industry (e.g. steel, cement) and buildings (heating, appliances), to model different scenarios of support policies for technological change.

“We want to be able to answer questions about the impact of policy changes on global emissions. Badly coordinated roadmaps of technological change can lead to increases in GHG emissions and so it’s important to know which types of policies will incentivise efficient emissions reductions in order to avoid dangerous climate change.”

New research seeks to take account of the fast pace at which technology is evolving in understanding how to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.

Technology comes to life through innovation, timely investments and policy incentives

Jean-Francois Mercure

Paul Krueger

Car2Go Electric Car Sharing

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Carbon offsets could help lower emissions without harming the economy

sc604 — Fri, 27 Sep 2013 07:00:00 +0000

Carbon taxes, offsets and other market-based measures could effectively address the impact of CO2 emissions from the aviation and international shipping industries, without significant financial impact to the world’s poorest countries, according to a new study led by researchers from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge.

̽��ֱ��study, prepared for the climate policy organisation Climate Strategies, concluded that market-based measures (MBMs) could be a key part of an overall emissions reduction strategy, while reducing GDP by less than 0.01 per cent on average.

Researchers from Cambridge ̽��ֱ��, CE Delft, Cambridge Econometrics, TAKS (Transport Analysis and Knowledge Systems) and Climate Strategies quantified the economic impacts of MBMs in shipping and aviation for ten selected countries, and determined the most effective and efficient tools to reduce these impacts.

̽��ֱ��team found that economic effects were more pronounced in countries whose economies were heavily reliant upon tourism and trade by sea and air. Many of these countries have been resistant to mandatory MBMs for the aviation and maritime industries, as they will inevitably raise the cost of transport. However, the researchers also looked into ways of minimising the economic effects of MBMs on the often-volatile tourism industry, such as exemptions for certain routes, lump sum rebates, investments in infrastructure efficiency and the development of more efficient ships and aircraft.

̽��ֱ��ten countries chosen for the study (Mexico, China, India, Trinidad and Tobago, Togo, Kenya, Maldives, Samoa, Cook Island and Chile) were selected because they are expected to be impacted more significantly by the implementation of global MBMs – either due to their dependence on these modes of transport, on international trade, on airborne tourism, or their remote location.

While there are numerous challenges associated with the implementation of MBMs, they could provide an important source of finance, especially for developing countries, to support climate change mitigation projects and programmes.

“On the one hand, there could be an exemption for poor, small island nations that are heavily reliant on tourism,” says Dr Annela Anger-Kraavi, who completed the research while a member of the ̽��ֱ��’s Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, and is now at the ̽��ֱ�� of East Anglia. “However, on the other hand, if it’s a small island nation in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, adding a £30 carbon tax is not a make or break amount for a tourist who already pays £1000 for their long-haul flight, and that £30 could go towards developing climate solutions.”

̽��ֱ��implementation of MBMs has been modelled by the team to limit international aviation emissions to 10 per cent below their 2005 levels and international shipping emissions to 20 per cent below their 2005 levels, achieved through a combination of CO2 reductions and offsets. ̽��ֱ��types of MBMs which the team considered included global emissions trading, mandatory carbon offsets and an international fund for greenhouse gas emissions.

International shipping and aviation together account for five per cent of annual anthropogenic, or human-induced, CO2 emissions, and is projected to increase in the coming decades. MBMs have been proposed to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), but need to be implemented globally in order to prevent shipping companies simply changing the flags on their ships in order to avoid incurring any extra costs to their business or airlines changing their flight routes to minimise the policy impacts.

̽��ֱ��results of the study were recently presented at an informal stakeholder discussion with government officials, NGO and industry representatives and journalists in London.

For more information on this story, contact Sarah Collins on sarah.collins@admin.cam.ac.uk or +44 (0)1223 332300.

Instead of harming the economies of developing countries, carbon offsets and taxes on shipping and aviation would have a minimal or even a positive economic impact if implemented wisely, according to a new study.

Adding a £30 carbon tax is not a make or break amount for a tourist who already pays £1000 for their long-haul flight, and that £30 could go towards developing climate solutions

Annela Anger

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Vapour trail

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Cambridge unveils plans to become Retrofit City

tdk25 — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 00:11:27 +0000

A landmark energy-efficiency initiative which aims to reduce the carbon emissions from buildings in Cambridge by 30% before 2050 through a massive, city-wide retrofit scheme, has been launched.

̽��ֱ��Cambridge Retrofit Project will function partly as a social enterprise, and partly as a professional delivery service, and is being run by representatives from organisations and businesses across the East Anglian city.

It has set itself the formidable task of supporting the retrofits of approximately 20,000 private homes, and another 20,000 non-residential properties, before the mid-way point of the 21st century. These will include Victorian terraces, modern shopping centres, and the medieval college buildings of the city’s 804-year-old ̽��ֱ��.

̽��ֱ��aim is to make a decisive contribution to the UK’s carbon reduction target of 80% by 2050 in a single move focused on the energy-efficiency of buildings. In the process, the project will also seek to make Cambridge the first city to hit that national objective. From today, businesses and residents are being urged to sign up through a newly-launched website, www.cambridgeretrofit.org, where a full list of the many organisations already involved can also be found.

“Retrofitting” essentially means adding new technologies and features to a building to increase its energy-efficiency and reduce its energy consumption. In practice, that can involve the introduction of measures such as loft and cavity wall insulation, enhanced window glazing, draught-proofing, energy-efficient lighting and improved boilers. ̽��ֱ��result is reduced energy consumption and carbon emissions, but the programme also aims to build up local businesses, create warmer homes and increase the value of properties.

Making those improvements throughout an entire city – especially one which, like Cambridge, has a daunting range of buildings dating back to the Middle Ages – will require a huge community effort that cuts across public and private sectors.

̽��ֱ��total cost of retrofits over the course of the programme is expected to be £1billion. ̽��ֱ��project team calculate, however, that the energy-savings that result will be worth £1.5billion. ̽��ֱ��environmental payoff will be even greater, – the city’s carbon footprint, currently 830,000 tons of CO2 a year is expected to decrease at a rate of about 1% a year, eventually falling to about 500,000 tons of CO2 per annum as a result of the retrofit programme.

Since 2012, organisations from across Cambridge have been drawing up plans which will enable the project’s leaders to stimulate demand for retrofits, and then bring that together with financial support and delivery services. ̽��ֱ��process has involved local planners, building firms, property managers, housing associations, lawyers, engineers, architects and researchers, as well as national government offices and English Heritage.

̽��ֱ��project will be handled by a Programme Management Unit, which breaks down into three sub-groups. A “Project Support and Aggregation” arm, run by the energy solutions firm, Day One Energy, will oversee the practical business of delivering and financing retrofits. ̽��ֱ��online consultation service, Consense, will lead the process of mobilising businesses and residents. Finally, supporting research and monitoring will be undertaken by the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research and its academic partners.

Overseeing this will be a group of 30 public and private sector partners, chaired by the former leader of Cambridge City Council, Sian Reid. This group will be responsible for monitoring the Unit’s performance and ensuring that it is acting in the best interests of the community.

Professor Douglas Crawford-Brown, Director of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, said: “It’s a huge challenge, but if we are going to achieve the ambitious carbon reduction targets that the UK has set, then we are going to have to learn how to run projects of this scale.”

“Crucially, our plan is to ensure that the business of retrofitting Cambridge’s buildings is demand-driven. Other attempts at initiatives like this have tended to work on the assumption that if a programme to make large-scale changes like this is created, people will use it. Our view is that you don’t start supplying until you’ve got the demand. Our first objective is to get big estate-holders involved.”

Residents, companies and public organisations alike can add their details to the website. Using this, retrofits will be co-ordinated by the Programme Management Unit to keep the costs as low as possible, and to ensure that local businesses and innovators form the project’s principal supply chain.

̽��ֱ��initial focus will be on the non-residential sector – the estates of the City and County Councils, property firms, schools, universities and the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge Colleges. These organisations are considered prime targets for retrofits because of the cost-saving benefits. “Our approach is that we’re not here to save your soul and we don’t care why you’re doing it, so long as you’re doing what needs to be done,” Crawford-Brown added.

Over time, the project will focus increasingly on the residential sector, working alongside local councils and other organisations to help reduce energy costs in homes.

̽��ֱ��Programme Management Unit will also offer all participants optional support through which they can negotiate the cost of retrofitting their properties. For example, in some cases, the Unit will take out an initial, low-cost loan to pay for the retrofit up front, then gradually pay this back by taking a cut of the profit made through energy-savings over time.

Several inaugural “beacon” projects are now being prepared by the project team, with a view to giving the scheme some initial momentum. They will include at least one college building, one commercial building, a local authority office and a ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge building.

Sian Reid, chair of the project’s oversight group, said: “It is wonderful to see that many Cambridge organisations have already signed up to Cambridge Retrofit. Getting people involved early, and then constantly broadcasting the successes that are happening in Cambridge, is crucial to the success of Cambridge Retrofit. There is a real opportunity here to create nationwide awareness of how retrofits can work for building owners, occupiers and communities. To do that, we have to make Cambridge a living example of best practice.”

Julian Huppert, MP for Cambridge, said: “Cambridge Retrofit has the exciting possibility of allowing everyone in Cambridge to benefit from more energy-efficient buildings, saving money and helping to protect the environment. I am pleased that so many people and organisations are coming together to make this happen.”

For more information about this story, please contact: Tom Kirk, Office of Communications, ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge. Tel: +44 (0)1223 332300; Email: thomas.kirk@admin.cam.ac.uk

A new network of public and private sector organisations aims to carry out retrofits across Cambridge, bringing down carbon emissions, cutting energy costs, and helping to make it the first city to meet the UK Climate Change Act carbon reduction target of 80% by 2050.

"We’re not here to save your soul and we don’t care why you’re doing it, so long as you’re doing what needs to be done"

Douglas Crawford-Brown

Cambridge Retrofit

̽��ֱ��wide range of building types in Cambridge, ranging from modern structures to medieval college buildings, make it a natural community in which to test the feasibility of city-wide retrofits to cut carbon emissions.

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