̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Amrita Narlikar

Global politics on the agenda at Hay

bjb42 — Sun, 22 May 2011 12:40:28 +0000

How can global organisations be more representative of rising powers? It's one of the big issues of our times as we witness enormous shifts in the world's power dynamics, but it's not a new one.

Amrita Narlikar heads a new centre at Cambridge which uniquely attempts to look at the impact of rising global powers by placing it in a historical as well as political and economic context. She will talk about one aspect of this work – world trade – at the forthcoming Hay Festival [26 May to 5 June], where she joins 17 others ̽��ֱ�� speakers as part of the Cambridge series.

Dr Narlikar's talk will centre on the World Trade Organisation, but will broach wider questions of multilateral reform. “ ̽��ֱ��WTO is a fantastic example of attempts to accommodate the new powers like Brazil, China and India – the opportunities this presents and the unanticipated problems,” she says.

She adds that the WTO is quite distinctive as it has responded fairly well to the rise of new powers compared to other global institutions, such as the UN Security Council. It has given the new powers a major role in high table negotiations and decision-making. “It is one of the few organisations that has responded. You would expect this to make the balance of power fairer, but lots of unanticipated challenges have resulted,” she argues.

One of the positives is a greater diversity of players, but this has slowed down decision-making. Increasing the number of players coming to the table with different viewpoints has created a situation of recurrent deadlock. Trade rounds are taking longer to finish and, as a result, people are becoming more disengaged from the discussions, says Dr Narlikar.

Another problem is that, although there has been a broadening of the decision-makers at the WTO, the actual process of decision-making has not been reformed. It still relies on reaching a consensus on the issues being discussed. “That worked when the GATT talks were a rich man's club, a small group of countries which agreed with each other. It's very different when there is a diversity of countries at the core, with allies in the developing world. Consensus-based decision-making breaks down,” says Dr Narlikar.

Her talk will argue the need for the decision-making process to adapt to a more pluralistic system. “ ̽��ֱ��current system greatly delays the benefits of increasing diversification and creates a very polarised system which is not good if we value stability,” she says.

̽��ֱ��Centre for Rising Powers, which had its inaugural lecture on 12 May, is different from the other new country-specific research centres which has sprung up in response to the rise of the BRICs, says Dr Narlikar. ̽��ֱ��CRP looks at the rise and fall of powers theoretically and historically and how they negotiate and bargain for a place at the power table. “People are behaving as if this transition period has never happened before, but it is a deep-rooted phenomenon and there is always the risk of systemic upheaval,” says Dr Narlikar. “Further, as power transitions seldom happen in a vacuum, the Centre is just as interested in the established powers and other members of the international system that have to deal with, manage, or withstand the rise of new powers.”

̽��ֱ��CRP is very interdisciplinary – its steering committee includes academics with a background in economics, history and political science as well as practitioners. Dr Narlikar highlights that the Centre is committed to cutting-edge research, but with a view to informing and engaging with policy. Other events planned for the future include a panel discussion with former British ambassadors to Brazil, India and China.

Dr Narlikar's talk is just one of a range of sessions being given by Cambridge academics at the Hay Festival. They cover everything from Renaissance costume to liberal ideas about toleration to the history of astronomy. For full details, click here.

Ahead of her talk at the Hay Festival, Dr Amrita Narlikar, Director of the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge's new Centre for Rising Powers, discusses how countries like Brazil and China are changing the shape of global politics.

Consensus-based decision-making worked when trade talks were a rich man's club. It's very different with a diversity of countries at the core. 

Dr Amrita Narlikar

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Power in the balance

bjb42 — Wed, 11 May 2011 11:08:11 +0000

̽��ֱ��Centre for Rising Powers will bring together academics from different subject areas whose research touches on one of the most important questions in international relations: How different powers rise to the top of international politics, and how to predict the impact they will have when they do so?

Its formal launch will take place this Thursday (12 May), with an inaugural lecture given by Joseph Nye, ̽��ֱ�� Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard ̽��ֱ�� and one of the most influential researchers in the field of foreign policy and international relations.

Professor Nye is a former chairman of the US National Intelligence Council, served as Assistant Secretary of Defence for International Security Affairs under President Bill Clinton and currently co-chairs both America’s main cyber security project and the Advisory board of the USC Centre on Public Diplomacy. His lecture will be on the future of US-China relations.

In keeping with his theme, some of the Centre’s research will concern the big, emerging powers of the present day – in particular the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China. All four are expected to figure in the list of leading world economies by the year 2050, raising questions about the challenge they will pose to the liberal, western powers who have effectively dictated the course of international politics since the end of the Cold War.

Uniquely, however, the Centre for Rising Powers will also look beyond the immediate cases of the 21^st century. Researchers will also look at historical cases to understand more about how new powers emerge, how they can be accommodated, and the effect that this has on international stability in different cases. ̽��ֱ��rise and fall of Germany in the 19^th and 20^th centuries, or the emergence of the USA or the Soviet Union as global leaders over the course of the 20^th, could in this sense provide lessons for the future as valuable as those which can be drawn from the study of rising powers today.

̽��ֱ��changes which occur as a result of transitions in the world order are felt far beyond established corridors of power. By altering the course of international politics, these countries also impact on the global response to issues such as climate change, trade, international finance, migration, poverty reduction and international security. Far more than diplomacy alone rests on having a clear understanding of their intentions, their negotiating behaviour, and what the consequences of their leadership on such issues are likely to be.

̽��ֱ��findings which emerge from the Centre’s research will be fed back to international policy-makers. ̽��ֱ��new Centre already has links with various think-tanks, policy institutions and private sector organisations, and seminars, conferences and workshops in which research can be communicated back to these groups will be held by the Centre on a regular basis.

Dr Amrita Narlikar, Director of the Centre for Rising Powers, said: “Power transitions are one of the main sources of deadlock and conflict on the world stage, but they also have the potential to act as sources of renewal and change for the better.”

“As a result, the study of how powers rise and how the process should be handled has a direct impact on international co-operation, peace and stability – and on more general values such as efficiency, fairness and justice in the global order. ̽��ֱ��research that the Centre produces will, in some form or other, be of international policy relevance.”

̽��ֱ��inaugural lecture of the Centre for Rising Powers will be given by Professor Joseph Nye in the Old Library, Pembroke College, on Thursday, 12 May, 2011. For more information about the Centre for Rising Powers, its members and its work, please visit the website: https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/

A new research hub dedicated to the study of emerging powers and how different nations evolve to become leading political forces on the world stage, is being created at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge.

Power transitions are one of the main sources of deadlock and conflict on the world stage, but they also have the potential to act as sources of renewal and change for the better.

Dr Amrita Narlikar

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Cambridge makes Hay

bjb42 — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 09:16:17 +0000

̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge alumnus and Hay Festival director Peter Florence has invited the ̽��ֱ�� to contribute a third annual speaker series to the world-renowned Festival, held between May 27 and June 5.

̽��ֱ��Cambridge Hay series is a spin-off from the Cambridge Festival of Ideas, and features outstanding communicators from the Cambridge academic community.

Up to 5,000 people are expected to attend the talks and discussions in the Cambridge series and this year ̽��ֱ��Telegraph is the Festival’s media partner.

Highlights this year include philosopher Baroness Onora O'Neill debating the limits of toleration in today's society and Dr Amrita Narlikar on the rise of new powers Brazil, India and China and their impact on global governance. Dr Narlikar heads Cambridge's new Centre for Rising Powers.

India is one of the focuses for this year's Festival and Dr Kevin Greenbank and Dr Annamaria Motrescu will lead a session entitled “ ̽��ֱ��Reel Raj: cinefilm and audio archive from the Centre of South Asian Studies”. This includes remarkable footage from some of the almost 300 home movies in their collection which offer a unique glimpse of life in India and other parts of South Asia during the final days of the British Empire.

Hay audiences can also look forward to Dr Ha-Joon Chang on 23 myths of capitalism and Professor Tony Wrigley in conversation with George Monbiot, discussing a new look at the industrial revolution and the links between the industrial revolution and our current energy crisis. Professor Nicky Clayton will talk about her research on crow behaviour which was featured in a series of online films made available by the ̽��ֱ��.

And with an event which may appeal to adults and children alike, Cambridge ̽��ֱ�� Press Chief Executive Stephen Bourne will speak about the company’s decision to adopt a giant panda at the Chengdu Giant Panda Breeding Research Foundation in China – a bid to build closer working links with the country and to help protect the endangered species.

Other speakers include:

Dr Simon Mitton, on the books that have changed our view of the universe, from Alexandria to Cambridge
Professor Michael Lamb on children in the legal system
Professor Gerry Gilmore on whether science claims to know the unknowable
Professor Rosamond McKitterick on history, memory and ideas about the past
Dr Ulinka Rublack on dress codes in Renaissance Europe
Dr Clive Oppenheimer on eruptions that shook the world
Professor Simon Blackburn on the relationship between language and action, pragmatism, and practical reasoning.
Dr Rachel Polonsky on Molotov, one of Stalin's fiercest henchmen.

Nicola Buckley, currently Head of Community Affairs, said: “ ̽��ֱ�� ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge is delighted to be contributing its speaker series to the Hay Festival once again. We welcome the Festival director’s vision to open up Cambridge research on historic and contemporary India, among many other topics, to the Hay audience, and we look forward to lively talks and debates.”

̽��ֱ��full line-up for the Cambridge series at the Hay Festival is:

Fri 27/5, 5.15pm

Professor Sir Colin Humphreys

Cambridge Series 1 - " ̽��ֱ��Mystery of the Last Supper: Reconstructing the Final Days of Jesus".

Reconciling conflicting Gospel accounts and scientific evidence, the distinguished Cambridge physicist reveals the exact date of the Last Supper in a definitive new timeline of Holy Week and offers a complete reassessment of the final days of Jesus.

Fri 27/5, 6.30pm Professor John Barrow

̽��ֱ��Book of Universes

̽��ֱ��mathematician encounters universes where the laws of physics can change from time to time and from one region to another, universes that have extra hidden dimensions of space and time, universes that are eternal, universes that live inside black holes, universes that end without warning, colliding universes, inflationary universes, and universes that come into being from something else – or from nothing at all.

Fri 27/5, 7.45pm Dr Simon Mitton

From Alexandria to Cambridge

̽��ֱ��historian of astronomy examines of Five Books That Changed Our View of the Universe: Ptolemy's Almagest, Copernicus' De Revolutionibus, Galileo's Siderius Nuncius and Dialogo, and Newton's Principia. A facsimile of the Copernicus manuscript will be displayed.

Sat 28/5, 2.30pm Professor Michael Lamb

Angels, Demons, Dunces

̽��ֱ��developmental forensic psychologist examines our inconsistent views of children in the legal system.

Sun 29/5, 2.30pm Dr Ha-Joon Chang

23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism

̽��ֱ��economist turns all received wisdom about free markets, globalisation and the digital revolution on its head and offers an utterly compelling alternative. Chaired by Jesse Norman of the Treasury Select Committee.

Mon 30/5, 4pm Professor Tony Wrigley

Opening Pandora's Box: a New Look at the Industrial Revolution

All material production requires energy. All pre-industrial economies derived the bulk of their energy from agriculture. Production horizons were tightly bounded. ̽��ֱ��use of fossil fuel overcame this limitation. Chaired by George Monbiot.

Tues 31/5, 1130 Stephen Bourne

Panda-monium: social responsibility in China

Cambridge ̽��ֱ�� Press has adopted the young giant panda Jian Qiao at the Chengdu Research Foundation in China. Its CEO reports on the practicalities and symbolism of this new relationship, and we'll meet Jian Qiao on the big screen.

Tues 31/5, 1pm Professor Simon Blackburn

Practical Tortoise Raising

̽��ֱ��Philosopher explores the relationship between language and action, pragmatism, pluralism and practical reasoning.

Tues 31/5, 1pm Professor Clive Oppenheimer

Eruptions That Shook ̽��ֱ��World

̽��ֱ��volcanologist explores geological, historical and archaeological records to ask how volcanic eruptions have shaped the trajectory of human society through prehistory and history. He looks at the evidence for

volcanic cataclysm and considers how we can prepare ourselves for future catastrophes.

Tues 31/5, 5.30pm Dr Amrita Narlikar

̽��ֱ��Rise of New Powers and the Challenges of Global Trade Governance

No good deed goes unpunished: the WTO’s timely response to accommodate the new powers – Brazil, China, and India – at the heart of its decision-making has created new opportunities but also generated unanticipated new problems. What insights can be learnt about the rise of new powers within the WTO and in other multilateral organisations?

Tues 31/5, 7pm Dr Kevin Greenbank / Dr Annamaria Motrescu

̽��ֱ��Reel Raj: cinefilm and audio archive

An overview of the digital holdings of the Centre of South Asian Studies and their potential in the teaching of British and South Asian imperial history. Chaired by Hannah Rothschild.

Weds 1/6, 11.30am Professor Gerry Gilmore

Past, present and infinite future?

Was there anything before the beginning, why does science claim to know the apparently unknowable; where do I come from? What do we know about the infinite future?

Weds 1/6, 4pm Rev Dr John Polkinghorne

Quantum Theory

" ̽��ֱ��mathematician, theoretical physicist and priest explains the strange and exciting ideas that make the subatomic world so different from the world of the every day."

Thurs 2/6, 2.30pm Dr Ulinka Rublack

Dressing Up: Cultural identity in Renaissance Europe

Historian Dr Rublack will show why clothes made history and history can be about clothes. Her research imagines the Renaissance afresh by considering people´s appearances: what they wore, how this made them move, what images they created, and how all this made people feel about themselves.

Thurs 2/6, 5.30pm Dr Rachel Polonsky

Molotov's Magic Lantern

A luminous, original and unforgettable exploration of a country and its literature, viewed through the eyes of Vyacheslav Molotov, one of Stalin's fiercest henchmen.

Fri 3/6, 2.30pm Professor Nicky Clayton

̽��ֱ��Ape On Your Bird Table

Crows are as smart as apes. They manufacture tools, they are socially sophisticated, and they plan where to cache for tomorrow's breakfast. These findings have led to a re-evaluation of avian cognition, and resulted in a theory that intelligence evolved independently in apes and crows.

Sat 4/6, 2.30pm Professor Rosamond McKitterick

History, Memory and Ideas About the Past

̽��ֱ��historian focuses on uses of memory and the problems of the relation between memory and written, especially narrative and records of memory. Particular memories can also be exploited to reinforce an identity or even an ideology. Modern historians have distinguished between official and popular history and memory, as well as collective and individual manifestations and uses of memory. She will explore how helpful modern experience may be in interpreting the distant past. Case studies of historical narratives and epitaphs inscribed on stone from the early middle ages (c. 500-c.900) will serve to highlight both the kind of material with which an early medieval historian works, and its implications for historical knowledge and interpretation more generally.

Sun 5/6, 2.30pm Baroness Onora O'Neill

Is Toleration Still A Virtue?

̽��ֱ��philosopher is an exacting examiner of great issues such as freedom of speech, assisted suicide and

stem cell research. Here she explores a fundamental assumption of liberal societies.

̽��ֱ��books that have changed our view of the Universe, eruptions that shook the world and Stalin's fiercest henchmen are just some of the themes that will be under discussion during the popular Cambridge Series at this year's Hay Literary Festival.

We welcome the vision to open up Cambridge research on historic and contemporary India, among many other topics, to the Hay audience.

Nicola Buckley

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Hay Festival

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New kids on the block

bjb42 — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Writing in the book New Powers, ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge researcher Dr. Amrita Narlikar argues that the negotiation behaviour of these three emerging giants could act as an early warning system for diplomats, enabling countries like the US to better understand and handle them.

China, India and Brazil are all expected to rank within the world's top five economies by 2050. All three, however, also sit outside the circle of liberal, western powers which has dictated the course of international politics since the end of the Cold War.

Potentially, each could challenge the existing international order, and the rules and organisations that underpin it, and thereby pose a threat to international peace and stability.

Their intentions, however, remain obscure. ̽��ֱ��study argues that any new power will temper its diplomacy while still rising in an effort to gain acceptance on the world stage. At the same time, however, it suggests that by forensically examining their negotiating behaviour, clues emerge about what kind of great power each of China, India and Brazil will be.

"Rather than attempting to make educated guesses and predictions about these powers' future behaviour, we should be examining the methods that they are using to negotiate their way to the core of the international system," Dr. Narlikar said. "If correct, this research suggests that so far the established powers in the west have not negotiated correctly with any of the three."

̽��ֱ��study examines the negotiating approach of each of the three emerging powers, with particular emphasis on recent talks such as the Doha Development Round, or the UN Climate Change Conference at Copenhagen in December 2009.

It offers an analysis not just of each country's strategy, but also the basis on which it forms coalitions, the way in which its arguments are framed and the willingness or otherwise it has shown to lead on issues of international importance.

Among other recommendations, it suggests that the west should be moving towards a policy of "containment, rather than engagement" with China, which, it argues, will pose perhaps the biggest challenge to the existing international order in the future.

For some, China's high levels of military spending, economic growth and different political system already provide cause for alarm. Typically, however, the west has sought to handle its emergence by engaging it, for example, by giving it a seat on the UN Security Council, or in a variety of bilateral discussions with the US.

Dr. Narlikar suggests that the reason for this may be that since the 1970s, China has generally acted with "quiet restraint" on the international stage - a strategy which has made it appear more moderate than countries such as India, which has a longer record of blocking international agreements.

That position could, however, be changing. ̽��ֱ��study documents how in the past few years China's tactics have become more heavy-handed, pointing to examples such as the increasingly liberal use of its veto on the UN Security Council, its intransigence at the Copenhagen summit, and its supply of aid to African countries in a manner that appears to rival openly existing international development systems.

"China's recent negotiating behaviour discloses revisionist intentions, in contrast to cautious hedging in the past," Dr. Narlikar writes. "It allows established powers greater reason to pursue containment rather than engagement. Insofar as China's power is only growing, containment today is likely to be less costly than containment tomorrow."

By contrast, the study sees India as characteristically argumentative on the international stage, not least because its domestic political culture rewards its politicians for standing up to the west and its legitimacy rests on the support of smaller, developing countries.

While this may explain India's "just say no" stance on issues such as climate change, the book also indicates that both India and the West need to change their approach. India, it suggests, will secure greater acceptance at the global high table by leading more balanced negotiations internationally and regionally. ̽��ֱ��West, which has shown a preparedness to bend rules to accommodate India, should be demanding more concessions from it in return.

Brazil emerges as the one power among the three whose negotiation style exhibits a consistent willingness to act as an engaged and co-operative member of the international community.

Dr. Narlikar suggests that the time has come to engage it more seriously, rather than treating it as a "pushover" because it does not pose a threat to the existing order. Doing more to accommodate Brazil, she adds, for example by granting it a much-coveted seat on the UN Security Council, would legitimise and strengthen existing forms of international governance, and send out powerful signals to India and China as they strive for similar levels of acceptance.

New Powers; how to become one and how to manage them, by Dr. Amrita Narlikar, is published by C. Hurst & Co. on Thursday, July 8th.

̽��ֱ��negotiating styles of the world’s biggest rising powers – China, India and Brazil – could offer important clues about any future challenge they may pose to international stability, a new study suggests.

If correct, this research suggests that so far the established powers in the west have not negotiated correctly with any of the three.

Dr. Amrita Narlikar

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