̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - David Edwards

Global timber supply threatened as climate change pushes cropland northwards

jg533 — Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:49:54 +0000

̽��ֱ��sight of vineyards in Britain is becoming more common as hotter summers create increasingly suitable conditions for growing grapes. But behind this success story is a sobering one: climate change is shifting the regions of the world suitable for growing crops.

Researchers at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge have uncovered a looming issue: as the land suitable for producing our food moves northwards, it will put a squeeze on the land we need to grow trees. ̽��ֱ��timber these trees produce is the basis of much of modern life – from paper and cardboard to furniture and buildings.

They say that the increasing competition between land for timber production and food production due to climate change has, until now, been overlooked – but is set to be an emerging issue as our demand for both continues to increase.

Under the worst-case scenario for climate change, where no action is taken to decarbonise society, the study found that over a quarter of existing forestry land – around 320 million hectares, equivalent to the size of India – will become more suitable for agriculture by the end of the century.

Most forests for timber production are currently located in the northern hemisphere in the US, Canada, China and Russia. ̽��ֱ��study found that 90% of all current forestry land that will become agriculturally productive by 2100 will be in these 4 countries.

In particular, tens of millions of hectares of timber-producing land across Russia will become newly suitable for agriculture – more than in the US, Canada and China put together – with conditions becoming favourable for potato, soy, and wheat farming.

“There’s only a finite area of suitable land on the planet where we can produce food and wood - 2 critical resources for society. As climate change worsens and agriculture is forced to expand northwards, there’s going to be increasing pressure on timber production,” said Dr Oscar Morton, a researcher in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences who co-led the study.

“We’ve got to be thinking 50 years ahead because if we want timber in the future, we need to be planting it now. ̽��ֱ��trees that will be logged by the end of this century are already in the ground – they’re on much slower cycles than food crops,” said Dr Chris Bousfield, a postdoctoral researcher in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and co-leader of the study.

Global food demand is projected to double by 2050 as the population grows and becomes more affluent. Global wood demand is also expected to double in the same timeframe, in large part because it is a low-carbon alternative to concrete and steel for construction.

Shifting timber production deeper into boreal or tropical forests are not viable options, because the trees in those regions have stood untouched for thousands of years and logging them would release huge amounts of carbon and threaten biodiversity.

“A major environmental risk of increasing competition for land between farming and forestry is that wood production moves into remaining areas of primary forest within the tropics or boreal zones. These are the epicentres of remaining global wilderness and untouched tropical forests are the most biodiverse places on Earth. Preventing further expansion is critical,” said David Edwards, Professor of Plant Ecology in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and senior author of the study.

To get their results, the researchers took satellite data showing intensive forestry across the world and overlaid it with predictions of suitable agricultural land for the world’s key crops -including rice, wheat, maize, soy and potato - in the future under various climate change scenarios.

Even in the best-case scenario, where the world meets net-zero targets, the researchers say there will still be significant future changes in the regions suitable for timber and crop production.

̽��ֱ��study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Timber production contributes over US $1.5 trillion (about £1.1 trillion) per year to national economies globally. Heatwaves and associated wildfires have caused huge recent losses of timber forests around the world. Climate change is also driving the spread of pests like the Bark Beetle, which attacks trees.

Climate change is expected to cause areas in the tropics to become too hot and inhospitable for growing food and make large areas of southern Europe much less suitable for food and wood production.

“Climate change is already causing challenges for timber production. Now on top of that, there will be this increased pressure from agriculture, creating a perfect storm of problems,” said Bousfield.

“Securing our future wood supply might not seem as pressing as securing the food we need to eat and survive. But wood is just as integrated within our daily lives and we need to develop strategies to ensure both food and wood security into the future,” said Morton.

Reference

Bousfield, C G, et al, ‘Climate change will exacerbate land conflict between agriculture and timber production.’ Nature Climate Change (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02113-z

Climate change will move and reduce the land suitable for growing food and timber, putting the production of these 2 vital resources into direct competition, a new study has found.

Gianluca Cerullo

Timber/farming contrast in the USA

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Thousands of birds and fish threatened by mining for clean energy transition

jg533 — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 15:00:57 +0000

New research has found that 4,642 species of vertebrate are threatened by mineral extraction around the world through mining and quarrying, and drilling for oil and gas.

Mining activity coincides with the world's most valuable biodiversity hotspots, which contain a hyper-diversity of species and unique habitats found nowhere else on Earth.

̽��ֱ��biggest risk to species comes from mining for materials fundamental to our transition to clean energy, such as lithium and cobalt – both essential components of solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars.

Quarrying for limestone, which is required in huge amounts for cement as a construction material, is also putting many species at risk.

̽��ֱ��threat to nature is not limited to the physical locations of the mines - species living at great distances away can also be impacted, for example by polluted watercourses, or deforestation for new access roads and infrastructure.

̽��ֱ��researchers say governments and the mining industry should focus on reducing the pollution driven by mining as an ‘easy win’ to reduce the biodiversity loss associated with mineral extraction.

This is the most complete global assessment of the threat to biodiversity from mineral extraction ever undertaken. ̽��ֱ��results are published today in the journal Current Biology.

“We simply won’t be able to deliver the clean energy we need to reduce our climate impact without mining for the materials we need, and that creates a problem because we’re mining in locations that often have very high levels of biodiversity,” said Professor David Edwards in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute, senior author of the report.

He added: “So many species, particularly fish, are being put at risk through the pollution caused by mining. It would be an easy win to work on reducing this freshwater pollution so we can still get the products we need for the clean energy transition, but in a way that isn’t causing so much biodiversity loss.”

Across all vertebrate species, fish are at particularly high risk from mining (2,053 species), followed by reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals. ̽��ֱ��level of threat seems to be linked to where a particular species lives and its lifestyle: species using freshwater habitats, and species with small ranges are particularly at risk.

“ ̽��ֱ��need for limestone as a core component of construction activity also poses a real risk to wildlife. Lots of species are very restricted in where they live because they're specialised to live on limestone. A cement mine can literally take out an entire hillside - and with it these species’ homes,” said Ieuan Lamb in the ̽��ֱ�� of Sheffield’s School of Biosciences, first author of the report.

̽��ֱ��Bent-Toed Gecko, for example, is threatened by limestone quarrying in Malaysia – it only exists on a single mountain range that planned mining activity will completely destroy.

To get their results, the researchers used International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) data to see which vertebrate species are threatened by mining. By mapping the locations of these species they could investigate the types of mining that are putting species at risk, and see where the risks are particularly high.

̽��ֱ��researchers discovered that species categorised as ‘vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered’ are more threatened by mineral extraction than species of lesser concern.

Watercourses can be affected in many ways, and water pollution can affect hundreds of thousands of square kilometres of rivers and flood plains. Mining sand as a construction material, for example, alters patterns of water flow in rivers and wetlands, making birds like the Indian Skimmer more accessible to predators.

Mineral extraction threatens vertebrate species populations across the tropics, with hotspots in the Andes, coastal West and Central Africa, and South-East Asia – which coincide with high mine density. For example, artisanal small-scale alluvial gold mining in Ghana threatens important bird areas through environmental mercury pollution.

Global demand for metal minerals, fossil fuels and construction materials is growing dramatically, and the extraction industry is expanding rapidly to meet this demand. In 2022 the revenue of the industry as a whole was estimated at US $943 billion.

Biodiversity underpins the protection of the world’s carbon stocks, which help to mitigate climate change.

̽��ֱ��study focused only on vertebrate species, but the researchers say mining is also likely to be a substantial risk to plants and invertebrates.

“There's no question that we are going to continue to mine - our entire societies are based on mined products. But there are environmental tensions embodied in our use of these products. Our report is a vital first step in avoiding biodiversity loss amidst the predicted drastic expansion of the mining industry,” said Edwards.

“Wildlife is more sensitive to mining in some regions of the world than in others, and our report can inform choices of where to prioritise getting our minerals to cause the least damage to biodiversity. Future policy should also focus on creating more circular economies - increasing recycling and reuse of materials, rather than just extracting more,” said Lamb.

̽��ֱ��research was funded by the Hossein Farmy scholarship.

Reference: Lamb, I P, ‘Global threats of extractive industries on vertebrate biodiversity.’ Current Biology, July 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2024.06.077

Our increasing demand for metals and minerals is putting over four thousand vertebrate species at risk, with the raw materials needed for clean energy infrastructure often located in global biodiversity hotspots, a study has found.

Our report is a vital first step in avoiding biodiversity loss amidst the predicted drastic expansion of the mining industry.

David Edwards

Gold mine in Rondonia, Amazonian Brazil

Yes

Rainforest wildlife under threat as below-canopy temperatures rise

jg533 — Mon, 03 Jun 2024 09:05:53 +0000

Crucial strongholds for biodiversity are under threat as temperatures are rising in tropical forests, the world’s most diverse terrestrial ecosystems, a new study reveals.

It has been long assumed that the forest subcanopy and understorey – where direct sunlight is reduced – would be insulated from the worst climate change impacts by the shielding effect of the forest canopy.

A new study, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, used a microclimate model to examine temperatures beneath the rainforest canopy across the global tropics.

This showed that between 2005 and 2019, most of the world’s undisturbed tropical forests experienced climate conditions at least partially outside the range of historic conditions. Many areas had transitioned to almost entirely new temperature averages.

Until recently, temperatures beneath the canopy in rainforests have remained relatively stable, meaning that the wildlife that lives there has evolved within a narrow range of temperatures. This leaves it poorly adapted to deal with temperatures outside this range.

̽��ֱ��study found pronounced shifts in climate regimes in a significant proportion of tropical forests, including globally important national parks, indigenous reserves, and large tracts of ecologically unfragmented areas.

Recent studies in largely undisturbed, or primary lowland tropical forests have found changes in species composition and significant declines in animal, insect, and plant populations. These changes are attributed to warming temperatures and are consistent with the findings of the new research.

"Tropical forests are the true powerhouses of global biodiversity, and the complex networks of species they contain underpin vast carbon stocks that help to mitigate climate change. A severe risk is that species are no longer able to survive within tropical forests as climate change intensifies, further exacerbating the global extinction crisis and degrading rainforest carbon stocks," said Professor David Edwards at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, a study co-author.

“Our study challenges the prevailing notion that tropical forest canopies will mitigate climate change impacts and it helps us understand how to prioritise conservation of these key areas of biodiversity effectively,” said Dr Alexander Lees, Reader in Biodiversity at Manchester Metropolitan ̽��ֱ��, a study co-author.

He added: “It is paramount that distant, wealth-related drivers of deforestation and degradation are addressed and that the future of those forests acting as climate refuges is secured by effecting legal protection, and by empowering indigenous communities.

“Notwithstanding the fundamental need for global carbon emission reductions, the prioritisation and protection of refugia and the restoration of highly threatened forests is vital to mitigate further damage to global tropical forest ecosystems.”

“Tropical forests, home to many of the world’s highly specialised species, are particularly sensitive to even small changes in climate,” said Dr Brittany Trew, Conservation Scientist for the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, and lead author of the study.

She added: “Our research shows that climate change is already impacting vast areas of pristine tropical forest globally. To provide species with the best chance to adapt to these changes, these forests must be protected from additional human-induced threats.”

“ ̽��ֱ��world's rainforests are incredible reservoirs of biodiversity, harbouring species that live in micro-environments in which climate conditions are generally stable. Thus, they are particularly sensitive to any changes brought about by climate change. It is vital that we take measures to safeguard these ecosystems from human pressures,” said Ilya Maclean, Professor of Global Change Biology at the ̽��ֱ�� of Exeter and senior author of the study.

̽��ֱ��study was made possible through a global collaboration that included researchers at Mountains of the Moon ̽��ֱ��, Uganda; Universidade Federal do Pará, Brazil; the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation and Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Perú. It was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Reference: Trew, B T et al: ‘Novel temperatures are already widespread beneath the world’s tropical forest canopies.’ Nature Climate Change, June 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02031-0

Adapted from a press released by Manchester Metropolitan ̽��ֱ��

Assumptions that tropical forest canopies protect from the effects of climate change are unfounded, say researchers.

A severe risk is that species are no longer able to survive within tropical forests as climate change intensifies, further exacerbating the global extinction crisis and degrading rainforest carbon stocks.

David Edwards

Alexander Lees

Rainforest on the south-eastern edge of Amazonia, Brazil

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Fish bellies, fava beans and food security

plc32 — Fri, 05 Apr 2024 15:20:27 +0000

Cambridge Zero and Cambridge Global Food Security gather academics and experts to share solutions for the planet’s looming food production problem.

Farm to factories

plc32 — Fri, 15 Mar 2024 16:51:02 +0000

Cambridge Zero collaborates with Cambridge Global Food Security Interdisciplinary Research Centre (IRC) and the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge Decarbonisation Network for two research events in March 2024 that look at industry decarbonisation and food security.