̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Srinivasan Keshav

Offset markets: new approach could help save tropical forests by restoring faith in carbon credits

jg533 — Mon, 30 Oct 2023 16:15:05 +0000

A new approach to valuing the carbon storage potential of natural habitats aims to help restore faith in offset schemes, by enabling investors to directly compare carbon credit pricing across a wide range of projects.

Current valuation methods for forest conservation projects have come under heavy scrutiny, leading to a crisis of confidence in carbon markets. This is hampering efforts to offset unavoidable carbon footprints, mitigate climate change, and scale up urgently needed investment in tropical forest conservation.

Measuring the value of carbon storage is not easy. Recent research revealed that as little as 6% of carbon credits from voluntary REDD+ schemes result in preserved forests. And the length of time these forests are preserved is critical to the climate benefits achieved.

Now, a team led by scientists at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge has invented a more reliable and transparent way of estimating the benefit of carbon stored because of forest conservation.

̽��ֱ��method is published today in the journal Nature Climate Change. In it, the researchers argue that saving tropical forests is not only vital for biodiversity, but also a much less expensive way of balancing emissions than most of the current carbon capture and storage technologies.

̽��ֱ��new approach works a bit like a lease agreement: carbon credits are issued to tropical forest projects that store carbon for a predicted amount of time. ̽��ֱ��valuation is front-loaded, because more trees protected now means less carbon released to the atmosphere straight away.

̽��ֱ��technique involves deliberately pessimistic predictions of when stored carbon might be released, so that the number of credits issued is conservative. But because forests can now be monitored by remote sensing, if projects do better than predicted – which they usually will – they can be rewarded through the issue of further credits.

̽��ֱ��payments encourage local people to protect forests: the carbon finance they receive can help provide alternative livelihoods that don’t involve cutting down trees.

And by allowing for future payments, the new method generates incentives for safeguarding forests long after credits have been issued. This contrasts with the current approach, which passes on a burden for conservation to future generations without compensation for lost livelihoods.

̽��ֱ��approach also allows different types of conservation projects to be compared in a like-for-like manner.

“Until now there hasn’t been a satisfactory way of directly comparing technological solutions with nature-based solutions for carbon capture. This has caused a lack of enthusiasm for investing in carbon credits linked to tropical forest protection,” said Dr Tom Swinfield, a researcher in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology and senior author of the study.

He added: “Tropical forests are being cleared so quickly that if we don’t protect them now, we’re not going to make the vital progress we need towards net-zero. Buying carbon credits linked to their protection is one of the best ways to do this.”

Tropical forests play a key role in taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, helping to reduce global warming and avert climate catastrophe. But the carbon they capture is not taken out of the atmosphere permanently: forests can be destroyed by pests, floods, fire, wind – and by human clearance.

This impermanence, and therefore the difficulty of reliably measuring the long-term climate benefit of tropical forest protection, has made it an unattractive proposition for investors wanting to offset their carbon emissions.

And this is despite it being a far cheaper investment than more permanent, technology-based methods of carbon capture and storage.

Protection of tropical forests, a nature-based solution to climate change, comes with additional benefits: helping to conserve biodiversity, and supporting the livelihoods of people living near the forests.

“Nature-based carbon solutions are highly undervalued right now because the market doesn’t know how to account for the fact that forests aren’t a permanent carbon storage solution. Our method takes away a lot of the uncertainties,” said Anil Madhavapeddy, a Professor in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Computer Science and Technology, who was involved in the study.

̽��ֱ��new method, developed by scientists at the Universities of Cambridge and Exeter and the London School of Economics, is called ‘Permanent Additional Carbon Tonne' (PACT) accounting, and can be used to value a wide range of nature-based solutions.

“Carbon finance is a way for us – the carbon emitters of the richer world – to direct funds towards rural communities in the tropics so they can get more out of the land they have, without cutting down more trees,” said Andrew Balmford, Professor of Conservation Science at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and first author of the paper.

Co-author Srinivasan Keshav, Robert Sansom Professor of Computer Science at Cambridge added: “Our new approach has the potential to address market concerns around nature-based solutions to carbon offsetting, and lead to desperately needed investment.”

Conversion of tropical forest to agricultural land results in vast carbon emissions. Around 30% of all progress towards the ambitious net-zero commitments made at COP26 is reliant on better management of carbon in nature.

Other carbon credit investment options include technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and lock it deep in the Earth for hundreds of years. These permanent storage options may currently be easier to value, say the researchers, but they typically cost substantially more than nature-based solutions and do nothing to protect natural habitats that are vital in regulating the global climate and mitigating the extinction crisis.

̽��ֱ��research was funded primarily by the Tezos Foundation. It was conducted by researchers at the Cambridge Centre for Carbon Credits.

Reference: Balmford, A et al.: ‘Realising the social value of impermanent carbon credits.’ Nature Climate Change, October 2023. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01815-0

Developing solutions for the energy transition

Anonymous — Wed, 14 Jun 2023 14:28:37 +0000

Solutions are being developed at Cambridge that can be implemented, grown to scale, and used to accelerate the rapid transition to a net zero and then zero emissions economy.

Phone-based measurements provide fast, accurate information about the health of forests

sc604 — Tue, 07 Mar 2023 01:21:40 +0000

̽��ֱ��researchers, from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge, developed the algorithm, which gives an accurate measurement of tree diameter, an important measurement used by scientists to monitor forest health and levels of carbon sequestration.

̽��ֱ��algorithm uses low-cost, low-resolution LiDAR sensors that are incorporated into many mobile phones, and provides results that are just as accurate, but much faster, than manual measurement techniques. ̽��ֱ��results are reported in the journal Remote Sensing.

̽��ֱ��primary manual measurement used in forest ecology is tree diameter at chest height. These measurements are used to make determinations about the health of trees and the wider forest ecosystem, as well as how much carbon is being sequestered.

While this method is reliable, since the measurements are taken from the ground, tree by tree, the method is time-consuming. In addition, human error can lead to variations in measurements.

“When you’re trying to figure out how much carbon a forest is sequestering, these ground-based measurements are hugely valuable, but also time-consuming,” said first author Amelia Holcomb from Cambridge’s Department of Computer Science and Technology. “We wanted to know whether we could automate this process.”

Some aspects of forest measurement can be carried out using expensive special-purpose LiDAR sensors, but Holcomb and her colleagues wanted to determine whether these measurements could be taken using cheaper, lower-resolution sensors, of the type that are used in some mobile phones for augmented reality applications.

Other researchers have carried out some forest measurement studies using this type of sensor, however, this has been focused on highly-managed forests where trees are straight, evenly spaced and undergrowth is regularly cleared. Holcomb and her colleagues wanted to test whether these sensors could return accurate results for non-managed forests quickly, automatically, and in a single image.

“We wanted to develop an algorithm that could be used in more natural forests, and that could deal with things like low-hanging branches, or trees with natural irregularities,” said Holcomb.

̽��ֱ��researchers designed an algorithm that uses a smartphone LiDAR sensor to estimate trunk diameter automatically from a single image in realistic field conditions. ̽��ֱ��algorithm was incorporated into a custom-built app for an Android smartphone and is able to return results in near real time.

To develop the algorithm, the researchers first collected their own dataset by measuring trees manually and taking pictures. Using image processing and computer vision techniques, they were able to train the algorithm to differentiate trunks from large branches, determine which direction trees were leaning in, and other information that could help it refine the information about forests.

̽��ֱ��researchers tested the app in three different forests – one each in the UK, US and Canada – in spring, summer and autumn. ̽��ֱ��app was able to detect 100% of tree trunks and had a mean error rate of 8%, which is comparable to the error rate when measuring by hand. However, the app sped up the process significantly and was about four and a half times faster than measuring trees manually.

“I was surprised the app works as well as it does,” said Holcomb. “Sometimes I like to challenge it with a particularly crowded bit of forest, or a particularly oddly-shaped tree, and I think there’s no way it will get it right, but it does.”

Since their measurement tool requires no specialised training and uses sensors that are already incorporated into an increasing number of phones, the researchers say that it could be an accurate, low-cost tool for forest measurement, even in complex forest conditions.

̽��ֱ��researchers plan to make their app publicly available for Android phones later this spring.

̽��ֱ��research was supported in part by the David Cheriton Graduate Scholarship, the Canadian National Research Council, and the Harding Distinguished Postgraduate Scholarship.

Reference:
Amelia Holcomb, Linzhe Tong, and Srinivasan Keshav. ‘Robust Single-Image Tree Diameter Estimation with Mobile Phones.’ Remote Sensing (2023). DOI: 10.3390/rs15030772

Researchers have developed an algorithm that uses computer vision techniques to accurately measure trees almost five times faster than traditional, manual methods.

Ground-based measurements are hugely valuable, but also time-consuming. We wanted to know whether we could automate this process.

Amelia Holcomb

Baac3nes via Getty Images

Treetops seen from a low angle

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

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̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Srinivasan Keshav

Offset markets: new approach could help save tropical forests by restoring faith in carbon credits

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Developing solutions for the energy transition

Phone-based measurements provide fast, accurate information about the health of forests