̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Cambridge-INET Institute

Bolsonaro’s attitude to coronavirus increases ‘risky behaviour’ in Brazil

fpjl2 — Tue, 05 May 2020 09:44:31 +0000

Jair Bolsonaro’s public undermining of pandemic prevention efforts reduces social distancing in the parts of Brazil where his voter base is strongest, according to a new study using location data from over 60 million phones.

Economists used electoral data and anonymised geo-location from devices across Brazil to investigate whether the president’s outspoken anti-quarantine attitude influenced numbers of citizens staying at home to stop coronavirus spread.

Researchers from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and Sao Paolo School of Economics-FGV found that municipalities which came out strongly for Bolsonaro in the last election have seen much higher levels of movement and travel among the population during February and March.

Additionally, in the days immediately after Bolsonaro’s televised dismissals of COVID-19 mitigation – e.g. publicly defying quarantine guidance or calling for schools to reopen – Brazil’s social distancing fell in general, and fell much more sharply in pro-Bolsonaro areas.

“Our research suggests that statements on public health behaviour from political leaders are taken seriously by their followers, regardless of how scientifically accurate they are, or how damaging they might be,” said Dr Tiago Cavalcanti, study author from Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics.

“Bolsonaro actively challenges the regulations imposed by sub-national governments to stem the coronavirus tide. He dismisses WHO recommendations and even those of his own minister of health, who he has recently fired.”

“Using big data research, we see the president’s attitude play out at a population level. Brazil is a polarized nation with a populist leader. ̽��ֱ��patterns we see in Brazil could be echoed in nations with a similar political situation, such as the United States,” he said.

Cavalcanti and his colleagues Dr Nicholas Ajzenman and Dr Daniel Da Mata looked at the percentage of mobile phones that remained within a 450-metre radius of their home location between February 4 and April 7 2020.

They compared this “social distancing index” with the voting record of each of Brazil’s 5,570 municipalities, in particular whether Bolsanaro received more or less than 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2018 election.

Social distancing has gone up across Brazil since the contagion began. In the top 3% of cities with the highest Bolsonaro vote counts*, such as Ascurra in Santa Catarina and Nova Santa Rosa in Parana, this increase was an average of 24 percentage points.

However, in cities at the bottom of Bolsonaro’s support spectrum*, such as Paricoa in Alagoas and Irapuan Pinheiro in Ceara, social distancing was much higher: a 31 percentage point increase.

̽��ֱ��study suggests that, on average during February and March, the cities where support for Bolsonaro is highest had levels of social distancing that were almost 30% lower than cities where Bolsonaro has very little support.

̽��ֱ��economists also analysed two key televised appearances by Bolsonaro in March, during which he openly disparaged efforts to control the pandemic.

̽��ֱ��first was on March 15, when Bolsonaro – suspected at the time of carrying COVID-19 – appeared at a supporters rally in Brazilia, flaunting public health guidelines by taking selfies and doling out fist bumps in the throng.

̽��ֱ��second was on March 24. In an official presidential pronouncement he called for schools to reopen nationwide, and criticized Brazilian media for too much reporting on the pandemic in Italy, suggesting he would only get “a little flu” at worst from COVID-19.

̽��ֱ��research shows how both these appearances caused social distancing levels to drop in the ten days after each event when compared to the ten days leading up them. ̽��ֱ��drop was particularly significant in municipalities with high numbers of Bolsonaro voters.

In fact, Cavalcanti suggests that, based on their data, a rough calculation for the effects of the March 24 appearance sees approximately one million additional Brazilians across the nation straying more than 450 metres from their home on each of the ten days following the televised speech.

“Leadership matters,” said Cavalcanti. “ ̽��ֱ��attitude of a leader can have a significant and possibly devastating impact on individual health and the healthcare systems of a nation.”

“When Bolsonaro minimises the pandemic, we see significant increases in what is now risky behaviour within large sections of the Brazilian population.”

“As coronavirus cases and fatalities continue to rise across Brazil, the behaviour of its leader may be having a very real and dangerous effect,” he said.

̽��ֱ��researchers also found that Bolsonaro’s televised appearances, and the press coverage that ensued, much of it negative, was linked to a more significant drop in social distancing in areas with “high media access”*.

̽��ֱ��team calculated the overall change in Brazil’s social distancing during the period for which they have data. In early February, before the pandemic took hold, around 20% of the Brazilian population stayed within 450 metres of their house. By early April, this had increased to around 53%.

̽��ֱ��researchers worked with technology company In Loco to produce the phone data analysis, and the complete findings are published as a Cambridge-INET working paper here: covid.econ.cam.ac.uk

Notes:
* Top 3% of cities for Bolsonaro support had an average Bolsonaro vote of 82% in the first round of the 2018 elections.
* ̽��ֱ��bottom 3% of cities for Bolsonaro support had an average Bolsonaro vote of 5% in the first round of the 2018 elections.
* “High media access” is defined as municipalities in the top 25% nationally for average internet penetration, plus at least one local TV broadcaster.

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

Donate to support COVID-19 research at Cambridge

Study suggests that TV appearances by Bolsonaro led to millions more Brazilians ignoring social distancing in the days following broadcast.

̽��ֱ��attitude of a leader can have a significant and possibly devastating impact on individual health and the healthcare systems of a nation

Tiago Cavalcanti

Jeso Carneiro

Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

Yes

Licence type:

Attribution-Noncommerical

Economic damage could be worse without lockdown and social distancing – study

fpjl2 — Wed, 29 Apr 2020 08:21:57 +0000

There is much debate over the economic costs of our lockdown lives: whether the mitigation of disease spread is worth the deepening financial crisis.

New research from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge suggests that there is no absolute trade-off between the economy and human health – and that the price of inaction could be twice as high as that of a 'structured lockdown'.

A Cambridge economist, together with researchers at the US Federal Reserve Board, has combined macroeconomics with aspects of epidemiology to develop a model for the economic consequences of social distancing.

̽��ֱ��study uses US economic and population data, but the researchers say their findings have implications for most developed economies.

It divides the working population into 'core workers' – those in healthcare as well as food and transportation, sanitation and energy supply, among others – and then everyone else, and models the spread of the virus if no action is taken.

“Without public health restrictions, the random spread of the disease will inevitably hit sectors and industries that are essential for the economy to run,” said co-author Prof Giancarlo Corsetti, from Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics.

“Labour shortfalls among core workers in particular strip more value from the economy. As essential team members within this core sector drop out of the workforce, it impairs production far more than losing those in other areas of the economy.”

By separating the core and non-core workers, the study suggests that the economy would shrink by 30% or more without lockdown and social distancing. “By ignoring this division in the workforce, we may badly underestimate the true depth of economic damage,” Corsetti said.

Using data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the researchers then quantified the share of workers who could 'reasonably keep performing occupational tasks at home': 15% of those in core sectors, and 40% of everyone else currently working – along with 30% of all non-working age people, from children to the retired. This puts a third of the entire population on lockdown.

In this scenario, the infection curve is smoothed out through social distancing, and the rate of loss in economic output is around 15%, just half the level of damage if no action is taken to prevent disease spread.

Sickness rates for core workers would be the same as the rest of the population, the high levels of social distancing elsewhere act as a shield.

“This overarching policy flattens the curve,” said Corsetti. “ ̽��ֱ��peak of the infected share of the population drops from 40% to about 15%. However, this is still far too high given the capacities of healthcare systems.”

So the researchers also modelled a scenario where infection rates are kept to a manageable level for healthcare services of under 1.5% of the population for 18 months – the length of time many believe it will take for a vaccine to arrive.

This would mean lockdown shares of 25% of core workers, 60% of workers outside of core, and 47% of non-working age people. Under this scenario, the economy contracts by 20%.

̽��ֱ��study also looked at a very strict lockdown – 40% of core workers and 90% each of non-working age and everyone else – that lasts for just three months. Such a scenario simply delays the infection rates but prevents 'herd immunity', creating an economic drop comparable to that of taking no action in the first place.

“As well as containing the loss of life, committing to long-term social distancing structured to keep core workers active can significantly smooth the economic costs of the disease,” said Corsetti.

“ ̽��ֱ��more we can target lockdown policies toward sections of the population who are not active in the labour market, or who work outside of the core sector, the greater the benefit to the economy,” he said.

“What seems clear to us is that taking no action is unacceptable from public health perspective, and extremely risky from an economic perspective.”

However, Corsetti and colleagues caution that the lingering uncertainties around just how the coronavirus spreads means their scenarios are not forecasts, but should be taken as a 'blueprint' for further analysis.

̽��ֱ��research is published as a Cambridge-INET working paper [PDF].

̽��ֱ��Cambridge-INET Institute has a dedicated website for research relating to the pandemic: covid.econ.cam.ac.uk.

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

Donate to support COVID-19 research at Cambridge

̽��ֱ��worst thing for the economy would be not acting at all to prevent disease spread, followed by too short a lockdown, according to research based on US data.

Taking no action is unacceptable from public health perspective, and extremely risky from an economic perspective

Giancarlo Corsetti

White House

A reporter takes a photo of Donald Trump during a White House coronavirus briefing in April

Yes

Licence type:

Public Domain

Women bear brunt of coronavirus economic shutdown in UK and US

fpjl2 — Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:29:43 +0000

Women on both sides of the Atlantic are more likely to have lost their jobs or suffered a fall in earnings since the coronavirus pandemic took hold – even after accounting for differences in types of occupation, a new study suggests.

Economists from the universities of Cambridge, Oxford and Zurich have collected two waves of data in the UK and the US – the first toward the end of March and then again in the middle of April – from almost 15,000 people.

̽��ֱ��second wave of data from mid-April suggests that – across gender, age and occupation – a total of 15% of the UK population have lost their jobs due to the economic impact of coronavirus. In the US it’s even higher: a total of 18%.

However, significantly higher rates of women and workers without a degree had experienced job loss or wage drops in the four weeks prior to questioning, compared to men and those with a university education.

In the UK, 13% of workers with a degree lost their job compared to 18% without a university education. In the US, the rate of job loss was 22% for those without a college degree compared to 15% of college-educated workers.

Women in the UK are four percentage points more likely to have lost their job than men, with 17% of women newly unemployed compared to 13% of men. ̽��ֱ��gap in the US was even wider: 21% of women compared to 14% of men.

̽��ֱ��researchers found that this gender gap in job loss due to coronavirus persisted even after controlling for education, occupation and regional location within each nation.

“We found that people without university degrees are more likely to be working in jobs with tasks that just can’t be done from home, making them more vulnerable to loss of employment,” said Dr Christopher Rauh, a report author from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics.

“While we can fully explain the education gap for job loss probabilities by differences in the types of work, the same is simply not true for the gender gap we see in job loss,” he said.

Despite this, the survey study found that – on average across both countries – women are more optimistic than men about their chances of keeping their job going forward.

̽��ֱ��researchers suggest that one potential reason for the gender gap they identify might be found in hours spent homeschooling and caring for children.

Data gathered from 9-14 April show that, on average during a typical working day, men in the UK spend under 2.5 hours on childcare, and do under two hours of homeschooling.

Women in the UK, however, spend over 3.5 hours on childcare, and do over two hours of homeschooling. In the US this childcare and homeschool gender gap is very similar, although slightly smaller.

̽��ֱ��type of occupation makes a massive difference to whether the coronavirus economic shock had taken your job in the last month. In the US, food serving and preparation was by far the worst hit type of occupation with 40% losing their jobs, followed by transportation and then production.

In the UK, the cleaners and maintenance workers have fared worst with 33% losing their jobs, closely followed by personal care services, then food workers and construction. In both countries, those who work in computing and occupations such as architects and engineers were least affected by loss of employment.

̽��ֱ��research also found a stark difference in job or earnings loss across the board between those on permanent contracts compared with temporary contracts, and those who can fully work from home compared with those who cannot do any. However, these inequalities were far greater in the US than the UK.

̽��ֱ��latest research builds on the first wave of survey work conducted near the end of March, which showed that those under the age of thirty and on lower incomes were more likely to have seen wage and job losses.

Added Rauh: “In general, younger individuals across the board, as well as women and those without university education, were significantly more likely to report experiencing drops in income.”

“ ̽��ֱ��outlook on the future is bleak. Of all those still employed, 32% of people in the UK and 37% of people in the US believe they will lose their jobs in the next few months,” he said.

“Our findings highlight the need for immediate policy responses that target those most aﬀected by the economic crisis.”

̽��ֱ��findings by the research team, composed of Rauh along with the ̽��ֱ�� of Oxford's Abi Adams-Prassl and Marta Golin and the ̽��ֱ�� of Zurich's Teodora Boneva, are published as a working paper through the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge Institute for New Economic Thinking: https://www.inet.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-pdfs/wp2018.pdf.

̽��ֱ��Cambridge-INET Institute has now launched a dedicated website for all their coronavirus-related research: covid.econ.cam.ac.uk.

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

Donate to support COVID-19 research at Cambridge

New data shows women and people who did not go to university are more likely to have lost work and earnings since mid-March.

Of all those still employed, 32% of people in the UK and 37% of people in the US believe they will lose their jobs in the next few months

Christopher Rauh

Craig Whitehead

Chef in Soho, London.

Yes

Licence type:

Attribution

Economic activity has halved during Spain’s coronavirus lockdown, study suggests

fpjl2 — Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:57:10 +0000

A new analysis of 1.4 billion anonymised credit and debit card transactions during the first three months of 2020 shows that spending in Spain post-lockdown was an average of 49% lower than the same period the previous year.

Economists from the universities of Cambridge, Edinburgh and Imperial College in the UK worked with the Spanish bank BBVA, one of the largest financial institutions in the world, to study the 'real-time evolution' of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This is an unprecedented dataset of millions of everyday transactions, revealing the underlying costs of the coronavirus crisis,” said study co-author Vasco Carvalho, Professor of Macroeconomics at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge, and director of its INET Institute.

“We can see in high resolution the impact of extreme mobility restrictions on a major western economy. We find an abrupt and persistent decline in spending during lockdown, amounting to about half of what we might normally expect.”

̽��ֱ��researchers found evidence of a major spending increase in the few days just before Spain’s lockdown began on the 14 March 2020, when daily expenditure growth shot up by 20 percentage points above average for the year.

Once lockdown began, daily spending halved on average. ̽��ֱ��researchers say that, while bank transaction data is 'substantially more volatile' than overall consumption by households in Spain, they are closely linked.

As such, a 'back-of-the-envelope calculation' for consumption movement during the pandemic suggests growth of just over 4% prior to lockdown dropped sharply to a -13% decline in average household consumption – a key indicator of GDP – once lockdown restrictions were in place.

“While considerable uncertainty surrounds these calculations, is seems hard to construct a scenario where average consumption of Spanish households is not declining somewhere between minus 10% and minus 15% during the period of lockdown,” said Carvalho.

̽��ֱ��dataset charts the dramatic shift to online purchasing once lockdown was enforced. While both offline and online spending fell overall, the decline at physical points of sale was massive. As such, online shopping increased its market share by about 50%.

̽��ֱ��detail in the anonymised transaction data allowed the researchers to analyse the best and worst performing types of goods and outlets as people adapted to their new lockdown lives.

While outlets unable to conduct business were obviously the worst hit – from bars to fashion retailers – the study shows that small local food shops and convenience stores benefited the most, increasing their market share more than even the 'Hipermercados', or superstores.

Other categories of spending that have seen market share grow during Spanish lockdown include mobile phone credit, as telecommunications become even more vital to social lives, as well as pharmacies and insurance.

“Spending on commodities related to basic necessities, such as foodstuffs and the pharmacy, more than doubled during the lockdown period, while trade in fashion or personal services declined heavily,” said Carvalho. “Restrictions to movement mean proximity to the customer is now of key importance.”

̽��ֱ��study found that – all together – the top 10 best performing spending categories during lockdown went from an average of 10% market share in the first two months of 2020 to 50% by late March.

̽��ֱ��economists also used anonymised geo-tagging of the transactions to study the economic effects of coronavirus on the different regions of Spain, as well as among the neighborhoods of one of its major cities.

Unlike the country’s autonomous regions, which all followed a similar pattern, economic activity evolved very differently within Madrid’s postcodes during the crisis. “Those neighborhoods where there were more sick and infected people saw substantial declines in spending,” said Carvalho.

“Within a big city, inequality in disease burden appears to be linked to inequality in economic burden.”

Study co-author Professor Sevi Rodriguez Mora, of the ̽��ֱ�� of Edinburgh’s School of Economics, said: “Over the coming weeks governments will grapple with how to relax social distancing measures, but have few means of understanding the impact of diﬀerent policies on economic activity.

“Transaction data can provide immediate feedback on how spending patterns across space and sectors react to restriction measures, but also their relaxation.”

“Given that this seems to be happening in Spain before the rest of Europe and America, whatever happens in Spain will show us what we should expect everywhere else."

Álvaro Ortiz, Head of Big Data at BBVA Research, added: “Tracking these kind of events in real time and high definition provides an important strategic advantage for policy makers, as they can react more quickly to limit the economic damage.”

̽��ֱ��new research is published as a Cambridge-INET working paper on the Institute’s dedicated COVID-19 research page.

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

Donate to support COVID-19 research at Cambridge

Almost one and a half billion spending transactions reveal 'real-time' reactions of consumers in a major western economy during the nation’s peak pandemic period.

Within a big city, inequality in disease burden appears to be linked to inequality in economic burden

Vasco Carvalho

Nemo

A deserted Grand Via, in the heart of Madrid, a week after the lockdown started.

Yes

Licence type:

Attribution-ShareAlike

Younger workers hit harder by coronavirus economic shock in UK and US

fpjl2 — Fri, 03 Apr 2020 09:53:09 +0000

Workers under the age of thirty, as well as those on lower incomes, on both sides of the Atlantic are already bearing the brunt of the economic shutdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, latest research finds.

Data collected by economists towards the end of March shows younger workers in the UK and US were more likely to have either recently lost their job or seen a drop in hours and earnings compared to workers in middle age.

Researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Oxford and Zurich also found that those under 30 and still in employment believed they were much more likely to lose their job by August, compared to those aged 40-55.

̽��ֱ��research suggests that in the UK, 8% of all workers employed in February had already lost their jobs. A third of all those still in work expected to lose their jobs within the next four months.

In the US, 11% of all workers had already lost their jobs due to COVID-19, and 40% of all those still working expected job loss by August.

Workers on lower incomes – those earning below 20,000 pounds or dollars a year – across all age groups in both countries were more likely to have lost their job in the preceding four weeks than workers earning over £40k in the UK or $50k in the States.

Those still employed on lower incomes in the UK and US could conduct a much smaller percentage of their normal working tasks from the safety of home.

Data was collected from “a large geographically representative sample” in each country say researchers. A total of 3,974 people in the UK were surveyed on March 25, two days into the government-imposed lockdown. ̽��ֱ��US data came from 4,003 people on March 24.

“Our findings suggest that the immediate impact of the coronavirus downturn on workers has been large and unequal, with younger workers and those at the bottom of the income distribution hit hardest,” said Dr Christopher Rauh from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics, who led the research.

“In the short term, there is a need to provide quick assistance to help those hit hardest to cover their bills in the coming weeks. Around half of all workers on both sides of the Atlantic expect to have difficulty paying their usual bills,” Rauh said.

“In the long term, the economic shock caused by the pandemic is highly likely to increase inequality between young and old, between higher and lower earners, and between those on secure and insecure contracts.”

̽��ֱ��survey found that workers on UK statutory sick pay, and those without paid sick leave in the US, were more likely to say they would to go into work with a cold or light fever. Researchers say that “paid sick leave policies should be rethought not only in light of workers’ welfare but public health as a whole”.

In both countries, far more self-employed people earned less than usual the week prior to the survey compared with those on permanent contracts.

̽��ֱ��research was done before the UK Chancellor announced new measures for the self-employed, beginning in June. However, the researchers caution that it “might be too late to prevent severe economic hardship”.

Added Rauh: “Preventing this shock from scarring the employment progression of the younger generation and the less-economically advantaged is vital if we are to avoid permanent damage to economies and individual welfare.”

̽��ֱ��findings have just been published as two working papers through the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge Institute for New Economic Thinking: Working paper, UK; Working paper, US.

̽��ֱ��Cambridge-INET Institute has now launched a dedicated website for all their coronavirus-related research: http://covid.econ.cam.ac.uk.

Key UK findings:

On average across all UK workers, people expect to earn 35% less in the next four months compared to usual.
69% of workers under 30 reported working fewer hours the previous week compared to usual and 58% reported earning less, compared to 49% and 36% of workers aged 40-55 respectively.
10% of workers under 30 are now unemployed because of COVID-19, compared to 6% of workers aged 40-55.
On average, those under 30 and still employed believe they have a 39% chance of job loss by August, compared to 27% for 40-55 year olds.
Workers earning under £20,000 can do 30% of the tasks in their main job from home compared to 55% for those earning more than £40,000.
12% of low-income workers earnings are now unemployed because of COVID-19 compared to 5% of higher earners.
Workers earning less than £20,000 expect to earn just 58% of their usual income between now and August. Those earning more than £40,000 expect to make 69% of their usual income on average.
43% of workers with just statutory sick pay said they usually go to work with a cold or light fever, compared to 31% of workers with additional paid sick leave.

Key US findings:

On average across all US workers, people expect to earn 39% less in the next four months compared to usual.
72% of workers under 30 reported working fewer hours the previous week compared to usual and 61% reported earning less, compared to 62% and 55% of workers aged 40-55 respectively.
On average, those under 30 and still employed believe they have a 43% chance of job loss by August, compared to 40% for 40-55 year olds.
Workers earning under $20,000 can do 42% of the tasks in their main job from home compared to 57% for those earning more than $50,000.
16% of low-income workers earnings are now unemployed because of COVID-19 compared to 7% of higher earners.
Workers earning less than $20,000 expect to earn just 48% of their usual income between now and August. Those earning more than $50,000 expect to make 69% of their usual income on average.
26% of workers without paid sick leave report they would go to work with a cold or light fever, compared to 24% of those with paid sick leave.

Listen to Dr Chris Rauh and Dr Meredith Crowley from the Faculty of Economics discuss the economic implications of COVID-19 with Dr Rob Doubleday from the ̽��ֱ��'s Centre for Science and Policy.

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

Donate to support COVID-19 research at Cambridge

Those on low incomes are also more likely to have lost jobs or pay, and less able to complete work tasks from home. Researchers warn the COVID-19 downturn is likely to “increase inequality between young and old”.

̽��ֱ��immediate impact of the coronavirus downturn on workers has been large and unequal

Christopher Rauh

Ken Fager

Closed.

Yes

Licence type:

Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike