探花直播 of Cambridge - policing

UK policing: psychological damage among officers heightened by bad working conditions

fpjl2 — Wed, 19 Oct 2022 08:50:23 +0000

High levels of trauma-related mental health disorders across UK police forces are partly the result of bad working conditions such as having too little time, sexual harassment, and dealing with difficult situations without support, according to a study led by the 探花直播 of Cambridge.聽

However, officers who say they feel supported by colleagues, and have a sense of doing meaningful work, had around half the rates of a form of PTSD as the national average for policing staff.

Researchers behind the study say their findings suggest that simple improvements to the working lives of police 鈥� scheduled time for support from peers and supervisors, for example 鈥� could dramatically reduce the level of psychiatric problems in UK forces.聽

Sociologists surveyed thousands of police personnel across the country in 2018 and found that 12% showed clinical symptoms of Complex Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (C-PTSD), a chronic condition in which repeated trauma exposure causes social disconnection, feelings of worthlessness, and an inability to regulate emotions.

Complex PTSD often leads to 'burnout' and substance abuse. In fact, 90% of police workers in the original survey study 探花直播Job, 探花直播Life聽had experienced trauma, and one in five of these reported symptoms of either PTSD or C-PTSD.

Now, the same team of researchers have analysed survey data provided by 12,248 serving police officers to determine the working conditions and on-the-job situations with the strongest links to Complex PTSD. 探花直播latest findings are published in the journal Policing.

Trauma detailed by officers with probable levels of Complex PTSD based on the survey screening included dealing with fatal car accidents, rapes, homicides, suicides 鈥� including of children 鈥� and drug overdoses.聽聽

Exposure to physical violence made little difference to rates of C-PTSD, nor did long working hours.

However, officers who described it as 鈥渧ery difficult鈥� to take time away from the job for personal or family matters had C-PTSD rates over 50% higher than the UK-wide average for police.聽聽

Those who described their relationship between work and personal life as 鈥渘ot fitting well at all鈥�, some 15% of police officers in the study, had twice (24%) the average policing rates of C-PTSD.聽

One officer suffering with probable C-PTSD described how what you see 鈥渋mpacts on your life outside of work鈥�, offering the example of cases involving dead children that 鈥渕ake you anxious about your own children's wellbeing. To a degree you lose your innocence.鈥澛犅犅犅�

Another C-PTSD sufferer said 鈥渋t is a given and accepted鈥� that the job means exposure to trauma, and describes the occupational health team in their force as 鈥渂rilliant鈥� but few in number. 鈥淭hey are only able to put 'sticky plasters' on, and send the officers back out,鈥� the officer said.

Police officers who described never having enough time to 鈥済et the job done鈥� had almost double the rates of C-PTSD as the average across UK forces, 22% compared to 12%, as did officers who reported experiencing sexual harassment 鈥� whether from the public or colleagues.聽聽聽聽

Officers who said they could never rely on the help and support of colleagues were most likely to suffer with Complex PTSD, with over 43% displaying symptoms, but such claims were relatively rare.

One detective with C-PTSD symptoms recounted dealing with sexual abuse cases as the sole investigating officer. 鈥淟ittle or no support from management. Victims hanging all their hopes and pressures on me.鈥�

By contrast, C-PTSD rates were just 7% among those who said they could always rely on colleagues, and just 6% among those who say they regularly get a feeling of a job well done, with researchers claiming that a sense of meaningful work may provide a 'protective effect' mentally.聽聽

鈥淥ur research shows that the debilitating psychological misery often caused by trauma exposure isn鈥檛 an inevitable part of the difficult job of policing, it is exacerbated by poor working conditions,鈥� said Prof Brendan Burchell, lead author from Cambridge鈥檚 Department of Sociology.聽聽聽聽

探花直播team also conducted analyses beyond individual officers to compare forces, revealing a strong link between 鈥渨or' intensity' 鈥� those forces with more officers reporting a lack of time to effectively police 鈥� and increased rates of Complex PTSD.

Of 18 anonymised UK police forces, the one with the highest reported time constraints among officers had C-PTSD rates of 29%, well over double the average for the overall policing population.

鈥淪evere austerity cuts since 2010 leading to a marked reduction in police numbers without a decrease in the demands of the job inevitably creates more time pressure for remaining officers,鈥� said Burchell.

鈥淪ingle-crewing, shift work and fewer resources mean that time for encouraging words between colleagues or space for officers to acknowledge their traumatic experiences are few and far between.鈥�

One officer with probable C-PTSD described being 鈥渟ingle crewed鈥� at a rural location for a year, with nearest support almost an hour away. Another spoke of going from a shift team of five to working alone. 鈥淢y coping strategy of being around colleagues who had been to the same fatal accident or suicide was taken away from me.鈥澛�

Cambridge co-author Dr Jessica Miller, who is also director of research for Police Care UK, the charity that funded the research, added: 鈥� 探花直播police forces reporting the best working conditions had much lower rates of PTSD. Modest investments to improve their working conditions could see significant reductions in psychological problems among police officers.鈥�

Nationwide study of over 12,000 officers suggests rates of trauma-induced disorder Complex PTSD are exacerbated by factors such as too little time and support, and lack of say over working hours.

探花直播debilitating psychological misery often caused by trauma exposure isn鈥檛 an inevitable part of the difficult job of policing

Brendan Burchell

探花直播text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright 漏探花直播 of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified.聽 All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways 鈥� as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

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Co-offenders likely to violently turn on one another, UK crime gang study shows

fpjl2 — Tue, 12 Apr 2022 08:55:15 +0000

探花直播first study to take a 'network analysis' approach to patterns of violence within UK organised crime gangs (OCG) has shown that OCG members who previously offended together are likely to end up attacking one another.

探花直播research also reveals cycles of escalating violence within the criminal milieu of Thames Valley. For example, OCG members who harass other members are far more likely to become victims of violence, primarily from those they harassed.聽

Researchers found these 'relational effects' 鈥� whether one OCG member has worked with or fallen out with another 鈥� to be much stronger predictors of violent crime than more traditional 鈥榬ap sheets鈥�: prior offence lists of individuals.

探花直播study, led by the 探花直播 of Cambridge and using 16聽years of data from Thames Valley Police, is published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology. It marks an initial foray into 'networks of violence' research for the UK.

While network analyses have previously been used to help police some of the most violent cities in the USA, such as Chicago and Boston, this is the first time the technique has been deployed in a less violent European context.聽聽聽

鈥淥ur work shows the importance of taking relationships into account when developing policing risk factors and 鈥榬ed flags鈥�,鈥� said Dr Paolo Campana from Cambridge鈥檚 Institute of Criminology. 鈥淭hese techniques could help police identify at an earlier stage the social networks set to spiral into violence.鈥�

Within the wider milieu of hardened OCG and all their known current and former associates, having co-offended 鈥� or been suspected of offending 鈥� with an OCG member dramatically increased the odds of becoming a victim of OCG violence by 56 times, typically from the former partner-in-crime.聽聽

Having harassed an OCG member or associate increased the odds of violent victimisation by a factor of 243, while those who had attacked someone in the network were 479 times more likely to become victims of violence themselves.

However, simply having a record of criminal violence, or of hard drugs offences, was found to have no significant effect on the potential for future violence.聽

Researchers say that such high odds ratios are due in part to limited data in this early study, but expect to see similarly strong correlations in future research. Campana is working with Cambridgeshire and Merseyside police to build bigger datasets.聽聽

鈥淚t often comes down to tit-for-tat retaliation that generates circuits of violence,鈥� said Campana.

鈥淚n the Thames Valley data we can see how prior co-offending relationships turn sour and become a mechanism for further violence. Harassment within criminal networks also dramatically increases the potential for violence.鈥�

鈥淰iolence is like a virus, it spreads through proximity and familiarity. Those within certain social bubbles are most at risk. In some US cities, co-offending bubbles account for over 80% of the violence,鈥� he said.聽聽

鈥淎s we collect more data, we can expect to identify more of the chains and feedback loops that sustain violence and render it endemic within groups and locations.鈥�

探花直播study used anonymised records from Thames Valley Police between 2000 and 2016 to build a network model for organised crime across a population of just over two million, including cities such as Oxford and Reading.

Definitions of an OCG member includes those working with others to 'commit serious crime on a continuing basis', with elements of planning, structure and coordination.

Campana and his colleague Dr Nynke Niezink from Carnegie Mellon 探花直播 in the USA analysed a criminal environment of 6,234 individuals, of which 833 were longstanding OCG: active as part of a gang for two years both before and after their first and last recorded offences.

Overall, belonging to an OCG carried a slightly lower risk of becoming a victim of violence than those in the wider criminal network, but it increased the risk of being attack by fellow gang members.聽

Researchers whittled over 23,000 events down to 156 OCG-instigated violent acts with sufficient data on the connections and criminal histories of the gang members involved.聽聽

Acts included murder and attempted murder, manslaughter, assault, and actual and grievous bodily harm with and without intent. Related incidents of threats and harassment were added to data models in addition to core acts of violence.

探花直播hardened OCG members were overwhelmingly male (93%), and most had been active in drug dealing. Half (51%) had been involved in a violent act, while a quarter (26%) had been a victim of violence.

探花直播few female OCG members were twice as likely as male members to be victims of violence. This was despite researchers removing incidents related to domestic violence.聽

Police initially supplied records on all events involving at least one OCG member as offender or victim, along with information on all others connected to the event.

Over the data period, the average size of a crime gang in Thames Valley鈥檚 jurisdiction 鈥� which includes cities such as Oxford and Reading 鈥� was 5-6 members, with the largest composed of 21 members.聽聽聽聽

Researchers use over a decade of data from Thames Valley Police to reveal 'mechanisms' that generate and sustain violence within networks of organised crime.

Violence is like a virus, it spreads through proximity and familiarity

Paolo Campana

West Midlands Police

Arrest warrant executed in West Bromwich, UK

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Ethnic minorities at much higher risk of homicide in England and Wales

fpjl2 — Tue, 17 Nov 2020 12:10:53 +0000

New research analysing racial disparities among murder victims across most of Britain over the last two decades shows that people of Asian ethnicity are on average twice as likely as White British people to be killed.

For Black people, however, the risk of homicide has been over five and a half times (5.6) higher than for White British people 鈥� on average 鈥� during the current century, and this disparity has been on the rise since 2015.

Researchers from the 探花直播 of Cambridge鈥檚 Institute of Criminology were surprised to find that official UK data did not include relative risk statistics by ethnicity, as is common in countries such as the US and Australia.

They argue that the UK鈥檚 Office for National Statistics (ONS) should publish 鈥渞elevant denominators with raw numerators鈥� to help with public understanding of crime risk and police resourcing. 探花直播work is published as a research note聽in the Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing.

鈥淭hrough a series of straightforward calculations, we found substantial racial inequality in the risks of being murdered in England and Wales,鈥� said co-author Professor Lawrence Sherman of the 探花直播 of Cambridge鈥檚 Institute of Criminology.

鈥� 探花直播pandemic has given the public a crash course in statistics. It provides an opportunity to present all kinds of data in ways that have more meaning for the population as well as those on the front line of prevention,鈥� Sherman said.聽

Billy Gazard, a crime statistician for the ONS, said: 鈥淲e have outlined our plans for improving crime statistics for England and Wales in our July 2020 progress update. Within this update we committed to better addressing inequalities in victimisation and highlighting those groups in society that are at most risk of experiencing crime. We plan to carry out further analysis over the coming year, which will include looking at homicide victimisation rates by ethnicity.鈥�

Cambridge criminologists went back over the last 20 years of annual figures using an approach now familiar to many through coronavirus statistics: rates of cases per 100,000 people. This provided a risk ratio for homicide rates by ethnicity in England and Wales.

探花直播researchers say that, to the best of their knowledge, theirs is the first comparison of ethnic group trends in UK homicide victimisation rates per 100,000 to be published in recent decades, if ever.

They found that homicide risk for White and Asian people has stayed relatively consistent since the turn of the millennium 鈥� around one in 100,000 for White people and a little over two in 100,000 for Asian people, consisting primarily of persons of South Asian descent. For Black people, however, risks have fluctuated dramatically over the last 20 years.

探花直播homicide victimisation rate for Black people was highest in the early noughties: almost 10 in 100,000 in 2001. It dropped by 69% between 2001 and 2012 to a low of 3 in 100,000 around 2013. Rates then began to climb again, rising seven times faster than for White people to reach over 5 in 100,000 last year.

When accounting for age, the disparity is starker still: for those aged 16 to 24, the 21st century average puts young Black people over ten and a half times (10.6) more likely than White people to be victims of homicide in England and Wales.聽

In fact, researchers point out that 鈥� per 100,000 people 鈥� the most recent data from 2018-19 puts the murder risk of young Black people 24 times higher than that of young White people.聽聽

探花直播criminologists found no correlation between changes in homicide risk for different ethnicities. As an example, they point to the last three years of data: the homicide rate for White people aged between 16-24 dropped by 57%, while for young Black people it increased by 31%.

鈥淧olicing requires reliable evidence, and changing levels of risk are a vital part of preventative policing,鈥� said Sherman. 鈥淥ur initial findings reveal risk inequalities at a national level, but they may be far greater or lower in local areas. We would encourage police forces to produce their own calculations of murder rates per 100,000.鈥�

Sherman has long advocated for a more 'meaningful'聽approach to crime data. He has led on the development of the Cambridge Crime Harm Index: a classification system weighted by the impact of an offence on victims, rather than just counting crime numbers.聽

鈥淪imple statistics show us that the risks of becoming a murder victim are far from equal,鈥� added Sherman. 鈥淲e need more data analysis of this nature to inform police resource allocation, and promote a more fact-informed dialogue with communities across the country.鈥澛犅�

Calculations now familiar from coronavirus coverage 鈥� cases per 100,000 people 鈥� applied to ethnicity and homicide victimisation in the UK for the first time.聽

We need more data analysis of this nature to inform police resource allocation, and promote a more fact-informed dialogue with communities across the country

Lawrence Sherman

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Lockdown 'helps fuel rise in cybercrime'

rg580 — Wed, 03 Jun 2020 10:24:06 +0000

That鈥檚 the warning from a team of researchers including Dr Ben Collier from the Cambridge Cybercrime Centre,聽part of Cambridge's聽Department of Computer Science and Technology.

探花直播researchers have been analysing data collected by the Centre from underground forums, chat channels and marketplaces used by cybercrime communities. And in a briefing paper they have just written for Police Scotland, they say it indicates that the social changes put in place in response to the coronavirus pandemic 'have stimulated鈥� the cybercrime economy.'

Some of the cybercrimes taking place are new. For example, early in the lockdown, some scammers sent fake texts, purporting to come from the UK's HM Revenue & Customs, telling recipients they were going to be fined 拢250 for leaving their homes more than once a day.鈥�

And the researchers are also concerned that the rollout of the prospective NHS contact-tracing app has the potential to generate clear risks for those vulnerable to fraud. They warn that such people may be conned into handing over sensitive personal information by fake apps or scam texts purporting to be from the NHS.

鈥淲e鈥檙e also seeing some general repurposing of existing cybercrime,鈥� said聽Collier. 鈥淔or example, there have long been fake online shops, but now instead of selling clothes, they are selling face masks or bogus 鈥榗ures鈥� for the coronavirus.鈥�

And meanwhile, there has been a general rise in the levels of cybercrime.聽探花直播Cambridge Cybercrime Centre has tracked a three-fold increase in 鈥榙enial of service鈥� attacks from around 12,000 per day to close to 30,000 attacks per day. These attacks 鈥� which can be purchased for small amounts of money from specialised online services 鈥� can be used to knock others offline, often opponents in online games.

Such attacks, the report says, have serious implications beyond being a nuisance for gamers, as many of these children and young people will be sharing internet connections with siblings engaged in online or blended learning and parents working from home.

We are vulnerable to such risks, Collier and his colleagues say, because we are spending much more time online as we work, or school our children, from home. And it is partly happening because 鈥渕any internet users, including adolescents and young adults, are currently confined to home with no school or work for much of the day. 探花直播increased boredom they feel may well be a key driver of online petty crime.鈥�

鈥淎nxiety over serious economic problems 鈥� such as job losses and business closures 鈥� may be prompting some people to step up existing harmful online activity as a means of generating income,鈥� said Collier.聽

In their paper, the research team 鈥� Dr Collier, Dr Shane Horgan from Edinburgh Napier 探花直播, Dr Richard Jones from the 探花直播 of Edinburgh and Dr Lynsay Shepherd from Abertay 探花直播鈥� also voice their concerns about the potential for a steep rise in the volume of other online harms. These include online bullying, stalking and harassment of minority groups and victims of domestic abuse.

Their paper is a rapid response briefing aimed at offering guidance on the policing of cybercrime to Police Scotland. But its findings have relevance across the UK.

It says that while the UK has a sophisticated cybersecurity apparatus particularly at the national level, it currently lacks sufficient capability at the local level to police a significant increase in 鈥榲olume鈥� cybercrime offences.

And it recommends that with levels of such crimes increasing, police forces need to engage more with their local communities and work with them on measures to prevent such crimes.

探花直播paper also recommends that police forces, including Police Scotland, immediately undertake a wide-ranging review of their cybercrime policing and prevention practices and capabilities to assess their current adequacy and potential future resilience in the event that the number of cybercrime offences increases significantly in the near future.

探花直播implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for cybercrime policing in Scotland: A rapid review of the evidence and future considerations鈥� is published by the Scottish Institute for Policing Research.

Take extra care before buying face masks or testing kits online, or responding to texts apparently sent to you by the UK Government or the NHS. Because while lockdown has helped reduce the spread of the coronavirus, it is also helping fuel a rise in cybercrime.

Anxiety over serious economic problems 鈥� such as job losses and business closures 鈥� may be prompting some people to step up existing harmful online activity as a means of generating income

Ben Collier

Photo by Philipp Katzenberger on Unsplash

Closeup of laptop computer

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Police platform patrols create 鈥榩hantom effect鈥� that cuts crime in Tube stations

fpjl2 — Thu, 16 Jan 2020 15:02:29 +0000

A massive experiment that deployed regular police patrols on platforms has shown that four 15-minute patrols a day in some of the capital鈥檚 most crime-ridden Underground platforms reduced reported crime by 28% in patrolled locations, while it rose 16% on platforms without patrols.

Researchers from Cambridge 探花直播鈥檚 Institute of Criminology worked with the British Transport Police (BTP) to conduct the experiment across six months in 2011-2012. 探花直播findings have been published in the journal Criminology.

探花直播team identified the 115 London platforms where reported crime was highest. They randomly allocated 57 of these platforms to four daily 'doses'聽of patrols 鈥� two officers on foot for quarter of an hour 鈥� four days a week, and compared the effects to the remaining 'untreated'聽platforms.

Patrolled platforms dropped from 88 crimes in the preceding six months to 63 crimes on the same platforms during the six months of the experiment. In the same time periods, crimes on platforms without regular patrols increased from 64 to 74.聽聽

A total of 3,549 calls to police from the platform came from stations without patrols, compared to 2,817 in the stations receiving a policing 'dosage'聽鈥� a relative difference of 21%.

Researchers also found that patrols on platforms did not simply 'displace'聽the crimes. Instead, the overall pattern showed crime going down in all parts of the stations 鈥� not just on platforms 鈥� relative to 'control'聽stations.聽聽聽聽聽聽

Strikingly, they discovered that the vast majority of reduction in both crime and calls for assistance occurred when these police patrols were absent 鈥� some 97% of the measured effect. 探花直播criminologists have dubbed this the 鈥淟ondon Underground paradox鈥�.

鈥� 探花直播total crime prevention benefit of police patrols may be greater when they are absent than when they are present,鈥� said study co-author Prof Lawrence Sherman. 鈥淚n the London Underground experiment we see a huge residual effect of brief appearances by patrolling officers after they leave鈥澛犅犅犅犅�

鈥淭his phantom effect suggests that crime declines when potential offenders are apprehensive about a possible police presence based on recent patrolling patterns 鈥� even when there are no police in the vicinity,鈥� he said.

鈥淚n London stations, it may be that more professional kinds of offenders are particularly sensitive to changes in police presence, such as pickpockets and distraction thieves.鈥�

鈥� 探花直播London Underground paradox could have implications for debates on police priorities in an age of austerity, such as the benefits of investigating past crimes compared with the benefits of preventing future crimes,鈥� Sherman said.

London鈥檚 Underground opened in 1863, the first underground railway in the world, and provides more than 1.3 billion passenger rides per year.

探花直播majority of crime in the transport network occurs on the trains and in concourse areas. Crime on platforms constitute 11% of the total, and historically platforms have had no regular police patrols.

As such, platforms offered an opportunity to conduct an experiment on spaces within a major metropolis that had never seen proactive police presence 鈥� ideal for gauging patrol effectiveness without previous 'contamination', say researchers.

鈥淧latforms are small, stable and confined places with finite entry and exit points. These characteristics make them optimal for measuring the localised deterrence effects of police patrols,鈥� said first author Dr Barak Ariel.

鈥淲e wanted to measure what happens when police patrols are introduced into an urban environment for the first time in over 150 years.鈥�

探花直播team targeted 'hot spots'聽鈥� areas where crime is more concentrated, and preventative patrols can have greatest effect 鈥� by ranking stations based on the previous year鈥檚 crime rates, and including the top 115 of Greater London鈥檚 270 stations in the experiment.

Researchers also narrowed the experiment鈥檚 focus based on 'hot hours'聽and 'hot days'. Previous data showed the sample platforms experienced more crime and calls to police from Wednesday to Saturday between 3pm and 10pm.

Twenty uniformed BTP officers were selected and trained to work exclusively on patrolling the platforms of the 'treatment'聽stations during 'hot'聽days and hours. Each two-person unit was allocated between three and five stations, with platforms patrolled for 15 minutes four times a day.

Officers were asked to conduct these patrols in a random or unpredictable order within the 'hot hours', and encouraged to engage with the public while patrolling.

Police were most effective at preventing platform crime during periods and days when patrols were scheduled 鈥� but just 3% of that reduction came when officers were actually scheduled to patrol.

探花直播researchers also found 'regional'聽effects: crime in the rest of the station fell almost as much as crime on platforms during the four days when regular patrols were deployed.

鈥淥ur findings indicate that consistent patrols can cause large reductions in both crime and emergency calls in areas that have never before been proactively patrolled by police in this way,鈥� added Sherman.

鈥� 探花直播more that uniformed police have been there, and the more recently, the less likely future crimes may be to occur.鈥澛�

This story was amended on 17/01/20 to include additional details from the paper on reductions in crime.聽聽

A major experiment introducing proactive policing to Underground platforms finds that short bursts of patrolling create a 'phantom effect': 97% of the resulting crime reduction was during periods when police weren鈥檛 actually present.聽

探花直播London Underground paradox could have implications for debates on police priorities in an age of austerity

Lawrence Sherman

Marco Chilese

London Tube station

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Knife crime: assault data can help forecast fatal stabbings

fpjl2 — Fri, 12 Apr 2019 10:23:41 +0000

Knife crime data from a 12-month period could be used to help forecast the London neighbourhoods most likely to suffer a fatal stabbing the following year, according to latest research.

Carrying Tasers increases police use of force, study finds

fpjl2 — Thu, 20 Dec 2018 00:01:49 +0000

A new study has found that London police officers visibly armed with electroshock 鈥楾aser鈥� weapons used force 48% more often, and were more likely to be assaulted, than those on unarmed shifts.

However, while use of force can include everything from restraint and handcuffing to CS spray, the Tasers themselves were only fired twice during the year-long study period.聽聽

Criminologists from the 探花直播 of Cambridge say the findings suggest that Tasers can trigger the 鈥榳eapons effect鈥�: a psychological phenomenon in which sight of a weapon increases aggressive behaviour.聽聽

While the 鈥榳eapons effect鈥� has been repeatedly demonstrated in simulated conditions over the last forty years, this is one of the largest studies to show it 鈥渋n the field鈥� and the first to reveal the effect in law enforcement.

Researchers say their findings, published today in the journal Criminal Justice and Behaviour, may well apply to policing situations in which other forms of weaponry 鈥� including the lethal variety 鈥� are involved.聽

鈥淲e found that officers are more likely to be assaulted when carrying electroshock weaponry, and more likely to apply force,鈥� said lead researcher Dr Barak Ariel from Cambridge鈥檚 Institute of Criminology.

鈥淚t is well established that the visual cue of a weapon can stimulate aggression. While our research does not pierce the 鈥榖lack box鈥� of decision-making, the only difference between our two study conditions was the presence of a Taser device.鈥�

鈥淭here was no increase in injury of suspects or complaints, suggesting it was not the police instigating hostilities. 探花直播presence of Tasers appears to provoke a pattern where suspects become more aggressive toward officers, who in turn respond more forcefully,鈥� he said.聽

探花直播City of London force is responsible for policing the 鈥楽quare Mile鈥� business district in the centre of London. It also holds national responsibility for economic crime and prioritises counter-terrorism, violent crime and public order due to its central location.

探花直播force was the first in England and Wales to test 鈥渆xtended deployment鈥� of Tasers 鈥� described as 鈥渃onducted energy devices鈥� in UK policing 鈥� to frontline officers. During the rollout, police chiefs allowed Ariel and colleagues to conduct a major experiment.聽

Between June 2016 and June 2017 the researchers randomly allocated 400 frontline shifts a Taser-carrying officer and compared the results to an equal number of unarmed shifts over the same period. A total of 5,981 incidents occurred during the study.

Use of force by police carrying Tasers was 48% higher than the officers on unarmed shifts. In what researchers call a 鈥渃ontagion effect鈥�, even those unarmed officers accompanying Taser carriers on 鈥榯reatment鈥� shifts used force 19% more often than those on Taser-free 鈥榗ontrol鈥� shifts.

Six physical assaults against police were recorded during shifts with Taser-carrying officers, compared to just three on the unarmed 鈥榗ontrol鈥� shifts. While the numbers are small, assaults against officers are rare, and researchers argue that this doubling is significant.

Despite the increased hostility uncovered by the study, actual use of electroshock weapons was minimal over the study period, with just nine 鈥渄eholsterings鈥� 鈥� only two of which resulted in electric shocks applied to a suspect. 聽聽

鈥� 探花直播City of London police rarely discharged Tasers during the study. Yet the very presence of the weapon led to increased hostility between the police and public,鈥� said Ariel.

探花直播weapons effect was first shown by psychologist Leonard Berkowitz in 1967, in a laboratory experiment involving the administering of electric shocks in the presence of a rifle 鈥� an experiment that Ariel points out has been replicated 78 times.

鈥淔or many, a weapon is a deterrence. However, some individuals interpret the sight of a weapon as an aggressive cue 鈥� a threat that creates a hostile environment,鈥� Ariel said.

鈥� 探花直播response is consequently a 鈥榝ight or flight鈥� dilemma that can result in a behavioural manifestation of aggression and assault. This is what we think we are seeing in our Taser experiment.鈥澛犅犅犅犅�

鈥淚t would not be surprising to find that serious or violent offenders fit this criteria, especially young males 鈥� the very type of suspect that is regularly in direct contact with frontline police.鈥�

Half a million police officers in the United States regularly carry Tasers, and electroshock weapons are now becoming part of frontline policing across the UK.

探花直播study author鈥檚 offer a simple solution to bypass the weapons effect: conceal the Tasers. 鈥� 探花直播relatively inexpensive policy change of keeping Tasers hidden from sight should not limit efficacy, but could reduce the weapons effect we see in the study,鈥� said Ariel.

鈥淭his conclusion could be generalised to all types of police armoury, including the lethal firearms carried by police officers. If the presence of weapons can lead to aggression by suspects, so its concealment should be able to reduce aggression and increase officer safety,鈥� he said.

Study co-author Chief Superintendent David Lawes, from the City of London Police, said: 鈥淔ollowing the findings of the study, we are exploring whether a simple holster change or weapon position move will nullify the weapons effect issue shown in the experiment. We have also updated our training package for officers carrying Tasers to make them aware of the findings.鈥�

鈥� 探花直播use of Tasers have been a proportionate and sensible introduction to policing against a backdrop of unsophisticated terror attacks and an increase in violent crime across London.

鈥� 探花直播City of London Police seeks to ensure that any major changes to policy are supported by an evidence base and we wanted to be confident that an extension of Taser deployments to our frontline responders was the right thing to do for both our officers and the public they serve.

鈥淎 number of other forces are interested in replicating the study to add to the evidence base and see whether the experiment produces the same results outside of London.

鈥淎cross our force, we will continue to use evidence to define how we target problems, which tactics we should use and how we can ensure policing is efficient and safer for both the general public and our officers.鈥�

Cambridge experiment with City of London police found that, while rarely deployed, just the presence of electroshock devices led to greater overall hostility in police-public interactions 鈥� an example of what researchers call the 鈥榳eapons effect鈥�.

探花直播presence of Tasers appears to provoke a pattern where suspects become more aggressive toward officers, who in turn respond more forcefully

Barak Ariel

City of London Police

A City of London police officer armed with a Taser

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Helping police make custody decisions using artificial intelligence

lw355 — Mon, 26 Feb 2018 13:20:08 +0000

"It鈥檚 3am on Saturday morning. 探花直播man in front of you has been caught in possession of drugs. He has no weapons, and no record of any violent or serious crimes. Do you let the man out on police bail the next morning, or keep him locked up for two days to ensure he comes to court on Monday?鈥�

探花直播kind of scenario Dr Geoffrey Barnes is describing 鈥撀爓hether to detain a suspect in police custody or release them on bail聽鈥撀爋ccurs hundreds of thousands of times a year across the UK. 探花直播outcome of this decision could be major for the suspect, for public safety and for the police.

鈥� 探花直播police officers who make these custody decisions are highly experienced,鈥� explains Barnes. 鈥淏ut all their knowledge and policing skills can鈥檛 tell them the one thing they need to now most about the suspect 鈥� how likely is it that he or she is going to cause major harm if they are released? This is a job that really scares people 鈥� they are at the front line of risk-based decision-making.鈥�

Barnes and Professor Lawrence Sherman, who leads the Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental Criminology in the 探花直播 of Cambridge鈥檚 Institute of Criminology, have been working with police forces around the world to ask whether AI can help.聽

鈥淚magine a situation where the officer has the benefit of a hundred thousand, and more, real previous experiences of custody decisions?鈥� says Sherman. 鈥淣o one person can have that number of experiences, but a machine can.鈥�

In mid-2016, with funding from the Monument Trust, the researchers installed the world鈥檚 first AI tool for helping police make custodial decisions in Durham Constabulary.

Called the Harm Assessment Risk Tool (HART), the AI-based technology uses 104,000 histories of people previously arrested and processed in Durham custody suites over the course of five years, with a two-year follow-up for each custody decision. Using a method called 鈥渞andom forests鈥�, the model looks at vast numbers of combinations of 鈥榩redictor values鈥�, the majority of which focus on the suspect鈥檚 offending history, as well as age, gender and geographical area.聽

鈥淭hese variables are combined in thousands of different ways before a final forecasted conclusion is reached,鈥� explains Barnes. 鈥淚magine a human holding this number of variables in their head, and making all of these connections before making a decision. Our minds simply can鈥檛 do it.鈥�

探花直播aim of HART is to categorise whether in the next two years an offender is high risk (highly likely to commit a new serious offence such as murder, aggravated violence, sexual crimes or robbery); moderate risk (likely to commit a non-serious offence); or low risk (unlikely to commit any offence).聽

鈥� 探花直播need for good prediction is not just about identifying the dangerous people,鈥� explains Sherman. 鈥淚t鈥檚 also about identifying people who definitely are not dangerous. For every case of a suspect on bail who kills someone, there are tens of thousands of non-violent suspects who are locked up longer than necessary.鈥�

Durham Constabulary want to identify the 鈥榤oderate-risk鈥� group 鈥� who account for just under half of all suspects according to the statistics generated by HART. These individuals might benefit from their Checkpoint programme, which aims to tackle the root causes of offending and offer an alternative to prosecution that they hope will turn moderate risks into low risks.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 needles and haystacks,鈥� says Sherman. 鈥淥n the one hand, the dangerous 鈥榥eedles鈥� are too rare for anyone to meet often enough to spot them on sight. On the other, the 鈥榟ay鈥� poses no threat and keeping them in custody wastes resources and may even do more harm than good.鈥� A randomised controlled trial is currently under way in Durham to test the use of Checkpoint among those forecast as moderate risk.

HART is also being refreshed with more recent data 鈥� a step that Barnes explains will be an important part of this sort of tool: 鈥淎 human decision-maker might adapt immediately to a changing context 鈥� such as a prioritisation of certain offences, like hate crime 鈥� but the same cannot necessarily be said of an algorithmic tool. This suggests the need for careful and constant scrutiny of the predictors used and for frequently refreshing the algorithm with more recent historical data.鈥�

No prediction tool can be perfect. An independent validation study of HART found an overall accuracy of around 63%. But, says Barnes, the real power of machine learning comes not from the avoidance of any error at all but from deciding which errors you most want to avoid.聽

鈥淣ot all errors are equal,鈥� says Sheena Urwin, head of criminal justice at Durham Constabulary and a graduate of the Institute of Criminology鈥檚 Police Executive Master of Studies Programme. 鈥� 探花直播worst error would be if the model forecasts low and the offender turned out high.鈥�

鈥淚n consultation with the Durham police, we built a system that is 98% accurate at avoiding this most dangerous form of error 鈥� the 鈥榝alse negative鈥� 鈥� the offender who is predicted to be relatively safe, but then goes on to commit a serious violent offence,鈥� adds Barnes. 鈥淎I is infinitely adjustable and when constructing an AI tool it鈥檚 important to weigh up the most ethically appropriate route to take.鈥�

探花直播researchers also stress that HART鈥檚 output is for guidance only, and that the ultimate decision is that of the police officer in charge.

鈥淗ART uses Durham鈥檚 data and so it鈥檚 only relevant for offences committed in the jurisdiction of Durham Constabulary. This limitation is one of the reasons why such models should be regarded as supporting human decision-makers not replacing them,鈥� explains Barnes. 鈥淭hese technologies are not, of themselves, silver bullets for law enforcement, and neither are they sinister machinations of a so-called surveillance state.鈥�

Some decisions, says Sherman, have too great an impact on society and the welfare of individuals for them to be influenced by an emerging technology.

Where AI-based tools provide great promise, however, is to use the forecasting of offenders鈥� risk level for effective 鈥榯riage鈥�, as Sherman describes: 鈥� 探花直播police service is under pressure to do more with less, to target resources more efficiently, and to keep the public safe.聽

鈥� 探花直播tool helps identify the few 鈥榥eedles in the haystack鈥� who pose a major danger to the community, and whose release should be subject to additional layers of review. At the same time, better triaging can lead to the right offenders receiving release decisions that benefit both them and society.鈥�

Inset image: read more about our AI research in the 探花直播's research magazine;聽download聽a聽pdf;聽view聽on聽Issuu.

Police at the 鈥渇ront line鈥� of difficult risk-based judgements are trialling an AI system trained by 探花直播 of Cambridge criminologists to give guidance using the outcomes of five years of criminal histories.

探花直播tool helps identify the few 鈥榥eedles in the haystack鈥� who pose a major danger to the community, and whose release should be subject to additional layers of review

Lawrence Sherman

Rene B枚hmer on Unsplash

探花直播text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

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