̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - London School of Economics and Political Science

UK budget rules hand green economy to China

plc32 — Thu, 24 Oct 2024 07:58:37 +0000

A new report by researchers from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) argues the UK government should invest in green infrastructure now or watch productivity lag behind China, the United States and other countries already running away with the benefits.

Likelihood of receiving an autism diagnosis may depend on where you live

cjb250 — Mon, 24 Oct 2022 22:30:39 +0000

̽��ֱ��latest findings, from researchers from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge in collaboration with researchers from the London School of Economics and Political Science and Newcastle ̽��ֱ��, are published today in ̽��ֱ��Lancet Child & Adolescent Health.

After analysing all new autism cases across England using NHS health service boundaries for possible hotspots, some areas stand out. For example, 45.5% of the NHS Rotherham catchment area had higher-than-average new autism diagnoses clusters. For NHS Heywood, this amounted to 38.8% of its catchment area and 36.9% for NHS Liverpool, pointing at a possible health service effect towards who receives an autism diagnosis.

̽��ֱ��research team used four years’ worth of data from the Summer School Census, which collected data from individuals aged 1-18 years old in state-funded schools in England. Of the 32 million pupils studied, more than 102,000 new autism diagnoses were identified between 2014 and 2017.

After adjusting for age and sex, the researchers found that one in 234 children were given a new autism diagnosis during that four-year period. New diagnoses tended to happen when children were transitioning to a new school, whether that was into nursery (1-3 years), primary school (4-6), and secondary school (10-12 years).

Particular communities appeared to have different rates, varying by ethnicity and deprivation.

Lead researcher Dr Andres Roman-Urrestarazu from the Department of Psychiatry and Cambridge Public Health at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge said: “Autism diagnoses are more common among Black students and other minority ethnic groups. Why this is the case is not clear and so we need to explore the role played by social factors such as ethnicity and area deprivation as well as the nature of local services.”

̽��ֱ��likelihood of receiving an autism diagnosis more than tripled among girls depending on their ethnicity and social and financial situation compared to white girls without financial disadvantages who speak English as their first language.

In contrast, boys’ likelihood of receiving an autism diagnosis increased more than five-fold depending on their ethnicity and social and financial situation compared to white boys without financial disadvantages who speak English as their first language.

Boys and young men are already known to be more likely to receive autism diagnoses, but the social determinants that could affect a diagnosis remained an open question.

Dr Robin van Kessel, co-lead researcher from the Department of Health Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science said: “These new findings show how social determinants interact and can combine to significantly increase the likelihood of an autism diagnosis. As a result, individuals from a minority ethnic background experiencing economic hardship may be significantly more likely to receive an autism diagnosis than their peers.”

Professor Carol Brayne from Cambridge Public Health said: “There are clear inequalities in an individual’s likelihood of receiving an autism diagnosis, whether they are socioeconomic factors, ethnicity or even which NHS region or local authority someone lives in.”

This work was supported by the Commonwealth Fund Harkness Fellowship, Institute for Data Valorization, Fonds de recherche du Québec—Santé, Calcul Quebec, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, Wellcome Trust, Innovative Medicines Initiative, Autism Centre of Excellence at Cambridge, Simons Foundation Autism Research Initiative, Templeton World Charitable Fund, Medical Research Council, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, and the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration East of England—Population Evidence and Data Science.

Reference
Roman-Urrestarazu, A et al. Autism incidence and spatial analysis in more than 7 million pupils in English schools: a retrospective, longitudinal, school registry study. Lancet Child & Adolescent Health; 25 Oct 2022; DOI: 10.1016/S2352-4642(22)00247-4

New autism diagnoses tend to be clustered within specific NHS service regions, suggesting that where an individual lives may influence whether they receive an autism diagnosis and access to special education needs support.

There are clear inequalities in an individual’s likelihood of receiving an autism diagnosis, whether they are socioeconomic factors, ethnicity or even which NHS region or local authority someone lives in

Carol Brayne

5712495 (Pixabay)

Autistic child

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Opinion: Thirty years on as 'new Cold War' looms, US and Russia should remember the Rekyjavik summit

Anonymous — Fri, 21 Oct 2016 14:09:53 +0000

In what looks very like a tit-for-tat downgrading of bilateral relations, Russia and America have traded diplomatic insults in recent weeks over nuclear weapons, geopolitics and economics, prompting speculation about “a new Cold War”.

Moscow acted first, announcing on October 3 that it had suspended its agreement with Washington on the disposal of surplus weapons-grade plutonium. Russian president, Vladimir Putin, accused the United States of “creating a threat to strategic stability as a result of unfriendly actions towards Russia”. He cited the recent build up of American forces in Eastern Europe, especially the Baltic states.

For its part, the US suspended talks with Russia over the war in Syria, on top of its existing sanctions against Moscow over Russia’s 2014 military actions in Ukraine.

How to escape from this standoff? Are there any lessons to be learned from the era of détente and the end of the Cold War in the 1970s and 1980s? In particular, about the role of international statecraft and personal dialogue between leaders?

Icelandic freeze

October 2016 marks the 30th anniversary of the summit between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in Reykjavik, Iceland which had aimed for an agreement on bilateral nuclear arms reductions. At the time the meeting was depicted in the media as a total failure, particularly over Star Wars, the US plan for a sophisticated anti-ballistic missile defence system. “No Deal. Star Wars Sinks the Summit,” Time magazine trumpeted on its cover with a photo of two drained and dejected men, unable to look each other in the eye.

How Time magazine reported the summit failure. TIME Magazine

̽��ֱ��last session ended in total deadlock between the two leaders – maybe a fateful missed opportunity. “I don’t know when we’ll ever have another chance like this,” Reagan lamented. “I don’t either”, replied Gorbachev. They wondered when – or even if – they would meet again.

This familiar, negative narrative was – and is – shortsighted. In reality, both leaders soon came to a more positive view of the summit. Far from being a “failure”, Gorbachev judged Reykjavik to be “a step in a complicated dialogue, in a search for solutions”. Reagan told the American people: “We are closer than ever before to agreements that could lead to a safer world without nuclear weapons.”

Reagan and Gorbachev had both learned how open discussion between those at the top could cut through much of the red tape and political misunderstanding that ties up international relations. At Reykjavik, even though Stars Wars proved a (temporary) stumbling block, both sides agreed that they could and should radically reduce their nuclear arsenals without detriment to national security. And this actually happened, for the first time ever, just a year later when they signed away all their intermediate-range nuclear forces – Soviet SS-20s and US Cruise and Pershing II missiles – in Washington in December 1987.

̽��ֱ��treaty testifies to the value of summit meetings that can be part of a process of dialogue that deepens trust on both sides and promotes effective cooperation. Reagan and Gorbachev clicked as human beings at Geneva in 1985, they spoke the unspeakable at Reykjavik in 1986 with talk of a nuclear-free world – and they did the unprecedented in Washington in 1987 by eliminating a whole category of nuclear weapons. All this helped to defuse the Cold War.

It’s good to talk

Today, however, the world seems in turmoil and trust is once again in short supply. We seem to be back to political posturing, megaphone diplomacy and military brinkmanship. Is there is any place for summitry in a situation of near-total alienation? This question was, of course, at the heart of the easing of hostilities in the 1970s, when East and West tried to thaw relations and find ways of living together peacefully.

Helmut Schmidt, West Germany’s “global chancellor” of the 1970s, was a great practitioner of what he called “Dialogpolitik”. He argued that leaders must always try to put themselves in the other person’s shoes in order to understand their perspective on the world, especially at times of tension. He favoured informal summit meetings as a way to exchange views privately and candidly, rather than feeding the insatiable media craving to spill secrets and proclaim achievements.

Rapport matters. EPA/Stephane Mahe

In the early 1980s, when superpower relations were stuck in a deep freeze, Schmidt conducted shuttle diplomacy as the self-styled “double-interpreter” between Washington and Moscow. Even when no real deals were in the offing, he believed it particularly vital to keep talking.

̽��ֱ��German chancellor, Angela Merkel, recently revived Schmidt’s approach, emphasising the need to maintain lines of communication with the Kremlin at a time of renewed East-West tension. Equally, however, she has insisted on the importance of a strong defence capability. Merkel is surely right. There is always a delicate balance to be struck between the diplomacy of dialogue and the politics of deterrence – making up your mind when to reach out and when to stand firm. Three decades on from Reykjavik, that remains the perennial challenge for those who have the vision, skill and nerve to venture to the summit.

David Reynolds, Professor of International History, Fellow of Christ's College, ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and Kristina Spohr, Associate Professor of History, London School of Economics and Political Science

This article was originally published on ̽��ֱ��Conversation. Read the original article.

David Reynolds (Faculty of History) and Kristina Spohr (London School of Economics and Political Science) discuss current relations between the US & Russia, and whether there are any lessons to be learned from the era of détente and the end of the Cold War in the 1970s and 1980s.

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Reagan Bids Gorbachev Farewell

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John Maynard Keynes: great economist, poor currency trader

sc604 — Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:44:44 +0000

A detailed new study of the chequered currency-trading record of John Maynard Keynes might make today’s overconfident currency speculators think twice.

While Keynes was one of the most famous economists in history, and his stock-picking record as an asset manager was outstanding, a forensic analysis of his personal currency trades found that his record was pedestrian by comparison.

̽��ֱ��findings are forthcoming in the Journal of Economic History, in a study co-authored by Olivier Accominotti from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and David Chambers of the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge Judge Business School.

“Unlike his stock investing, Keynes found currency investing a lot tougher, despite the fact that he was at the centre of the world of international finance throughout the time he traded currencies,” said Chambers. To be sure, Keynes made money from speculating in currencies in the 1920s and 1930s and his profits arose from more than pure chance. “Directionally, he called currencies more or less correctly but he really struggled with timing his trades. One main message for investors today is that if someone as economically literate and well-connected as Keynes found it difficult to time currencies, then the rest of us should think twice before believing we can do any better.”

In his currency trading, Keynes relied heavily on his own analysis of fundamental economic factors such as inflation, trade balance, capital flows and political developments.

Such ‘fundamentals-based’ strategy differs from ‘technical’ strategies that follow simple mechanical trading rules but seek profits by identifying market anomalies – typically through the carry trade (betting on high-interest currencies versus low-interest rate currencies) and momentum (betting on currencies which have recently appreciated versus those which have depreciated). Both fundamentals-based and technical trading styles are observed among modern-day currency managers.

But Keynes produced unremarkable results at the dawn of the modern foreign-exchange market, when dealings were transformed by telegraphic transfer and the emergence of a forward exchange market.

̽��ֱ��period during which he traded was marked by considerable foreign exchange volatility and large deviations of exchange rates from their fundamental values which appear obvious to investors today. However, trading these deviations in real time was hazardous. “Implementing a currency trading strategy based on the analysis of macroeconomic fundamentals was challenging (even) for John Maynard Keynes,” said the research paper.

This was particularly the case in the 1920s. Currency traders can be judged in terms of the return generated per unit of risk, also known as the Sharpe Ratio. While Keynes generated a Sharpe Ratio of approximately 0.2 (assuming his trading equity was fixed), the same ratio for an equal-weighted blend of the carry and momentum strategies was substantially higher at close to 1.0 after transaction costs. When he resumed currency trading in 1932 after a five-year break coinciding with the return to the gold standard, although Keynes outperformed the carry strategy (whose mean return was negative) in the 1930s, he still underperformed a simple momentum strategy.

̽��ֱ��study also found that Keynes “experienced periods of considerable losses in both the 1920s and 1930s. Indeed, he was close to being technically bankrupt in 1920 and could only stay trading thanks to his ability to borrow funds from his social circle.”

̽��ֱ��research is based on a detailed dataset of 354 personal currency trades by Keynes between 1919 and 1939 (mostly in five currencies against the British pound – the US dollar, French franc, Deutsche mark, Italian lira and Dutch guilder).

Details of the trades were contained in ledgers kept in the archives at King’s College, Cambridge, where Keynes managed the college endowment fund for decades. Famously shifting the college portfolio from property to stocks, Keynes’s investment writings based on his very successful investment strategy at King’s College later on became a source of inspiration for David Swensen, the architect of the influential “Yale model” for managing university endowments in the US today.

Originally published on the Cambridge Judge Business School website.

John Maynard Keynes struggled as a foreign-exchange trader, finds the first detailed study of the famous economist as currency speculator.

If someone as economically literate and well-connected as Keynes found it difficult to time currencies, then the rest of us should think twice before believing we can do any better.

David Chambers

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John Maynard Keynes

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