̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

Aim policies at ‘hardware’ to ensure AI safety, say experts

fpjl2 — Wed, 14 Feb 2024 11:28:30 +0000

Chips and datacentres – the “compute” driving the AI revolution – may be the most effective targets for risk-reducing AI policies, according to a new report.

Cambridge launches Institute for Technology and Humanity

fpjl2 — Tue, 21 Nov 2023 09:13:02 +0000

A major interdisciplinary initiative has been launched that aims to meet the challenges and opportunities of new technologies as they emerge, today and far into the future.

Opinion: ̽��ֱ��AI Summit was a promising start – but momentum must be maintained

fpjl2 — Wed, 08 Nov 2023 13:41:59 +0000

Given the frenetic pace of AI development, the international consensus demonstrated at the AI Summit is much-needed progress, says AI expert Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh.

Cambridge Zero highlights ̽��ֱ�� efforts at Climate Week NYC

plc32 — Fri, 06 Oct 2023 14:29:51 +0000

Cambridge Zero Director Professor Emily Shuckburgh took centre stage at the world's biggest climate event of its kind in New York to talk to global leaders of government, business and philanthropy about Cambridge’s efforts to tackle climate change.

At the opening ceremony of Climate Week NYC, Professor Shuckburgh offered a glimpse of optimism and urged everyone assembled to press on with implementing the urgent efforts needed this decade to tackle climate change.

"We have all the building blocks...we just simply haven't put them together, yet," she said.

Professor Shuckburgh appeared at Climate Week's main stage for one of the key discussions on the "New frontiers of Climate Action". Joining her were:

Helen Clarkson (Corpus Christi 1993) Chief Executive Officer of the Climate Group which organises Climate Week

Kate Brandt (Selwyn 2007) Chief Sustainability Officer of Google

Judith Weise Chief People & Sustainability Officer of Siemens AG

̽��ֱ��four women discussed the innovation and investment needed to achieve net zero. In particular, Professor Shuckburgh talked about what the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge is doing.

She mentioned Cambridge research on materials, batteries, photovoltaics, the Cambridge ecosystem for innovation, including Cambridge research on AI, aviation, the Centre for Landscape Regeneration and the ground-breaking work of the Cambridge Conservation Initiative.

She also mentioned how Cambridge is making efforts to support a more just transition around the world with the support of the Mastercard Foundation Programme with African institutions and scholars.

"Green innovation is going to be absolutely essential to our future...[and] one of the things we've been talking a lot about in Cambridge is not just how we can ensure that we are benefiting the UK, but also how we can collaborate externally."

Climate Week NYC takes place in partnership with the United Nations General Assembly and is run in coordination with the United Nations and the City of New York. It is the largest annual climate event of its kind, bringing together some 400 events and activities across the City of New York – in person, hybrid and online.

This year it centred around the UN General Assembly, the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Ambition Summit as well as hundreds of national government, business and climate group initiatives, making it a unique opportunity for Cambridge to communicate with the world.

On Wednesday evening, just hours after the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Ambition Summit concluded at the nearby headquarters of the United Nations, Professor Shuckburgh took part in Mission Possible: Creating a Better Planetary Future, an alumni event hosted by Cambridge in America at the Morgan Library in New York.

Professor Shuckburgh was joined by Professor of Planetary Computing Anil Madhavapeddy (Pembroke) and Fiona Macklin (St John’s 2012), Senior Adviser to Groundswell, a joint initiative between Bezos Earth Fund, Global Optimism and the Systems Change Lab.

̽��ֱ��panel focused on the technological and behavioural solutions available to build a sustainable future for the whole planet and was chaired by Professor Matthew Connelly, the new Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge.

“Our alumni network is one of Cambridge’s greatest pillars of support and with their help the ̽��ֱ�� is able to amplify its work, linking one of the world’s top research universities to peer institutions, policymakers and business leaders,” Professor Shuckburgh said.

Throughout the visit to New York, Professor Shuckburgh met with dozens of supporters, policymakers, business, industry and climate leaders in a packed schedule, with only brief moments to spare.

During a brief interlude between engagements, she managed to show up and support new initiative Climate Basecamp, which sponsored an "endangered flavors" ice cream stand at Union Square with TV screenwriter Chuck Tatham, whose hits include: Modern Family, Arrested Development and How I Met Your Mother.

While there she also shared a selfie and a chat with fellow climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe.

We have all the building blocks...we just simply haven't put them together, yet

Prof Emily Shuckburgh

Facing ̽��ֱ��New Reality - Climate Week NYC Opening Ceremony

Credit: Paul Casciato/ ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

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Risky business

zs332 — Thu, 07 Sep 2023 15:16:50 +0000

Launched during Open Cambridge, a new self-guided trail, created by researchers at Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), takes the public on an altogether different tour of the city.

Cambridge astronomer tops list of Royal Society Medal and Award winners

hcf38 — Wed, 30 Aug 2023 07:00:00 +0000

Lord Rees, a Fellow of Trinity College and Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics at the ̽��ֱ��, has been awarded the Royal Society’s Copley Medal for sustained, outstanding achievements in any field of science. First awarded in 1731, previous recipients of the medal have included Louis Pasteur, Dorothy Hodgkin, Albert Einstein, and Charles Darwin.

A Fellow and former President of the Royal Society, and the UK’s current Astronomer Royal, Lord Rees is one of the most distinguished theoretical astrophysicists of his generation and was chosen for his many and varied conceptual breakthroughs over several decades, with influence spreading far beyond the specialist academic community.

Accepting the Medal, Lord Rees, who has authored or co-authored more than 500 research papers and 11 books, said: “It is of course deeply gratifying to have my lifetime efforts recognised by award of the Copley medal.

“I've been especially fortunate to have injected fruitful ideas into the interpretation of new data in several areas of astronomy, and to have collaborated with many colleagues at different phases of my career.”

Also receiving Royal Society Medals and Awards this year are Cambridge Professors Sarah Franklin and Erwin Reisner.

Professor Franklin is awarded the Wilkins-Bernal-Medawar Medal and Lecture for her research into, and advocacy for, the social aspects of new reproductive technologies, while Professor Reisner is awarded the Hughes Medal for pioneering new concepts and solar technologies for the production of sustainable fuels and chemicals from carbon dioxide, biomass and plastic waste.

Renowned Cambridge astrophysicist and cosmologist Professor Lord Martin Rees has been named this year’s recipient of the world’s oldest and most prestigious scientific award.

Lord Martin Rees

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Death tolls from climate disasters will ‘balloon’ without investment in Africa’s weather stations

fpjl2 — Mon, 14 Aug 2023 09:43:37 +0000

̽��ֱ��climate crisis is increasing the frequency and intensity of floods, droughts and heatwaves, with Africa expected to be among the global regions hit hardest.

Yet the systems and technologies across the continent that monitor and forecast weather events and changes to water levels are “missing, outmoded or malfunctioning” – leaving African populations even more exposed to climate change.

This is according to a team of risk experts and climatologists from the UK and Africa led by the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge, who warn that without major and rapid upgrades to 'hydromet infrastructure', the damage and death toll caused by climate-related disasters across Africa will “balloon”.

Writing in the journal Nature, the authors point to latest research showing that – over the last two decades – the average number of deaths caused by a flooding event in Africa is four times higher than the European and North American average per flood.

When investigating this disparity, the team looked at World Meteorological Organization (WMO) data and found the entire continent of Africa has just 6% of the number of radar stations as the US and Europe’s combined total, despite having a comparable population size and a third more land.*

Radar stations detect weather fluctuations and rainfall as well as long-term climate trends, and are vital for the forewarning of impending floods and other meteorological events. ̽��ֱ��African continent has just 37 such stations.

Moreover, WMO data shows that more than 50% of the radar stations that do currently operate across Africa are unable to produce accurate enough data to predict weather patterns for the coming days or even hours.

̽��ֱ��research team call on the international community to boost funding for systems that mitigate risks to life from climate disasters. Currently, just US $0.47 of every $100 spent on global development aid goes towards disaster risk reduction of any kind.

“ ̽��ֱ��vast gaps in Africa’s disaster reduction systems are in danger of rendering other aid investments redundant,” said Dr Asaf Tzachor, co-lead author and research affiliate at Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER).

“For example, there is little point investing in smallholder farms if floods are simply going to wash away seeds, agrochemicals, and machinery.”

“We need to offer all Africans a chance to reduce their exposure to climate risks by fixing this glaring hydro-meteorological blind spot, before ever more lives are lost to the effects of global heating.”

To illustrate their point, the team compare two recent category 4 storms: Tropical Cyclone Idai hit southeast Africa in 2019, and Hurricane Ida swept the eastern US in 2021. Both had wind speeds of over 200km/hour.

US populations received evacuation alerts before Ida hit land, but the limited ‘hydromet’ capabilities meant Idai caught African nations by surprise. ̽��ֱ��US death toll was under a hundred, while over a thousand Africans lost their lives.

“Multilayered hydromet systems, including weather monitoring, forecasting and early warning, are taken for granted by the Global North, and have been for decades,” said co-lead author Dr Catherine Richards, also from CSER at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge.

“Meanwhile, the most foundational layer on which the others depend is often missing, outmoded or malfunctioning across Africa – more so than any other global region.”

“Well-funded hydromet systems must become a priority to help at-risk populations mitigate and adapt to weather-related hazards as the effects of climate change take hold,” Richards said.

̽��ֱ��team outline a series of recommendations for plugging Africa’s weather-warning gap.

Firstly, identify the most at-risk areas. “Types of climate hazard vary wildly across the continent – from the cyclones in Madagascar to the protracted droughts of east Africa,” said Tzachor.

“ ̽��ֱ��need for more weather stations across Africa is undeniable, but this must go hand-in-hand with improved satellite monitoring and major training initiatives to increase the number of skilled African meteorologists.”

̽��ֱ��latest computational techniques must be adopted, say the authors, including automated AI approaches that combine weather data with social media activity to predict disaster dynamics.

Early warning systems need to be expanded, and provide clear directions to evacuate in local dialects. “Over 80% of Africans have access to a mobile network, so text messages could be a powerful way to deliver targeted warnings,” said Richards.

Finally, major investment will be vital – and pay dividends. “ ̽��ֱ��World Bank has estimated a $1.5 billion price tag for continent-wide hydromet systems, but it would save African countries from $13 billion in asset losses and $22 billion in livelihood losses annually,” said Tzachor. “A nearly nine-to-one return on investment is surely a no-brainer.”

* In Europe and the US, there are 636 radar stations for a total population of 1.1 billion and a landmass of 20 million km². In Africa, there are just 37 for a comparable population of 1.2 billion and landmass of 30 million km².

Investment in ‘hydromet systems’ using technologies from AI to SMS would provide a nine-to-one ROI in saved lives and assets across African nations.

Well-funded hydromet systems must become a priority to help at-risk populations mitigate and adapt to weather-related hazards as the effects of climate change take hold

Catherine Richards

Getty images

Drone shot in front of a spinning weather station, Free State, South Africa

Yes

Public awareness of ‘nuclear winter’ too low given current risks, argues expert

fpjl2 — Tue, 14 Feb 2023 09:36:22 +0000

There is a lack of awareness among UK and US populations of 'nuclear winter', the potential for catastrophic long-term environmental consequences from any exchange of nuclear warheads.

This is according to the researcher behind new polling conducted last month and released today by the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER).

Paul Ingram, CSER senior research associate, says that – despite risks of a nuclear exchange being at their highest for 40 years due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine – what little awareness there is of nuclear winter among the public is mainly residual from the Cold War era.

̽��ֱ��scientific theory of nuclear winter sees detonations from nuclear exchanges throw vast amounts of debris into the stratosphere, which ultimately blocks out much of the sun for up to a decade, causing global drops in temperature, mass crop failure and widespread famine.

Combined with radiation fall-out, these knock-on effects would see millions more perish in the wake of a nuclear war – even if they are far outside of any blast zone. Ideas of nuclear winter permeated UK and US culture during the Cold War through TV shows and films such as Threads and ̽��ֱ��Day After, as well as in novels such as Z for Zachariah.

̽��ֱ��latest survey, conducted online in January 2023, asked 3,000 participants – half in the UK, half in the US – to self-report on a sliding scale whether they felt they knew a lot about “nuclear winter”, and if they had heard about it from:

Contemporary media or culture, of which 3.2% in the UK and 7.5% in the US said they had.
Recent academic studies, of which 1.6% in the UK and 5.2% in the US claimed they had.
Beliefs held during the 1980s, of which 5.4% in the UK and 9% in the US said they had heard of or still recalled.*

“In 2023 we find ourselves facing a risk of nuclear conflict greater than we’ve seen since the early eighties. Yet there is little in the way of public knowledge or debate of the unimaginably dire long-term consequences of nuclear war for the planet and global populations,” said Ingram.

“Ideas of nuclear winter are predominantly a lingering cultural memory, as if it is the stuff of history, rather than a horribly contemporary risk.”

“Of course it is distressing to consider large-scale catastrophes, but decisions need to account for all potential consequences, to minimise the risk,” said Ingram.

“Any stability within nuclear deterrence is undermined if it is based on decisions that are ignorant of the worst consequences of using nuclear weapons.”

̽��ֱ��survey also presented all participants with fictional media reports from the near future (dated July 2023) relaying news of nuclear attacks by Russia on Ukraine, and vice versa, to gauge support in the UK and US for western retaliation.

In the event of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine, fewer than one in five people surveyed in both countries supported in-kind retaliation, with men more likely than women to back nuclear reprisal: 20.7% (US) and 24.4% (UK) of men compared to 14.1% (US) and 16.1% (UK) of women.

̽��ֱ��survey used infographics summarising nuclear winter effects laid out in a recent study led by Rutgers ̽��ֱ�� (published by Nature in August 2022). ̽��ֱ��Rutgers research used climate modelling and observations from forest fires and volcanoes, and found that even a limited nuclear war could see mass starvation of hundreds of millions in countries uninvolved in any conflict.

Half the survey sample in each country (750 in the UK and US) were shown the infographics before they read the fictional news of nuclear strikes, while the other half – a control group – were not.

Support for nuclear retaliation was lower by 16% in the US and 13% in the UK among participants shown the “nuclear winter” infographics than among the control group.**

This effect was more significant for those supporting the parties of the US President and UK Government. Support for nuclear retaliation was lower by 33% among UK Conservative Party voters and 36% among US Democrat voters when participants were briefly exposed to recent nuclear winter research.***

Added Ingram: “There is an urgent need for public education within all nuclear-armed states that is informed by the latest research. We need to collectively reduce the temptation that leaders of nuclear-armed states might have to threaten or even use such weapons in support of military operations.”

Ingram points out that if we assume Russia’s nuclear arsenal has a comparable destructive force to that of the US – just under 780 megatons – then the least devastating scenario from the survey, in which nuclear winter claims 225 million lives, could involve just 0.1% of this joint arsenal.

̽��ֱ��findings are published in a report on the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk website.

* ̽��ֱ��responses to each of these three questions were not mutually exclusive, with some participants claiming to know about nuclear winter from two or three different sources.

** Support for nuclear retaliation in the UK was 18.1% in the group that were presented with the infographic, against 20.8% in the control group.
Support for nuclear retaliation in the US was 17.6% in the group that were presented with the infographic, against 21% in the control group.

***22.3% of informed UK Conservative Party voters supported nuclear retaliation, against 33.3% of those uninformed. Among US Democrats these figures were 15.8% and 24.6% respectively.

̽��ֱ��fieldwork was conducted online by polling company Prolific on the 25 January 2023, with a total of 3000 participants (1500 in the UK and US respectively).

Survey study of awareness in UK and US populations also shows that brief exposure to latest data on ‘nuclear winter’ deepens doubts over nuclear retaliation.

Ideas of nuclear winter are predominantly a lingering cultural memory, as if it is the stuff of history, rather than a horribly contemporary risk

Paul Ingram

Getty Images

US Navy nuclear test, Bikini Atoll.

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

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