探花直播 of Cambridge - Chris Bickerton

Opinion: Macron鈥檚 European trap

ag236 — Wed, 10 May 2017 15:53:06 +0000

By any account, the French presidential election that ended last Sunday was extraordinary. 探花直播run-off in the second round was between two political 鈥榦utsiders鈥�: Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. In the first round, the mainstream left and right candidates came fifth and third respectively, with the far left Jean-Luc M茅lenchon coming in way ahead of the Socialist Party candidate, Beno卯t Hamon. Many voters only decided late on who they would vote for, making this one of the most volatile elections on record.

探花直播scandals affecting the centre-right candidate, Fran莽ois Fillon, overshadowed the campaign and relegated debates about political programmes into second place. In the run-up to last Sunday鈥檚 second round vote, a fierce argument raged 鈥� especially on the left 鈥� about the rights and wrongs of abstaining or spoiling one鈥檚 ballot paper. Political celebrities 鈥� such as the Greek former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis 鈥� weighed in, urging French doubters to vote for Macron because 鈥�he is all that stands in between France and the fascism of Marine Le Pen鈥�.

In the end, one in four of registered voters either stayed away last Sunday or spoilt their ballot paper.聽 What prevailed in the second round was the logic of lesser evil 鈥� voting for a candidate that is 鈥榥ot as bad鈥� as another 鈥� which goes some way to explaining the sombre tone of Macron鈥檚 victory speech on Sunday night at the Louvre in Paris.

For all the novelty, Macron鈥檚 election victory points to one important continuity: France鈥檚 complicated relationship with the rest of the European Union and its place within the Eurozone.

When Fran莽ois Hollande was campaigning for the French presidency in 2012, it was the height of the Eurozone crisis with jobless figures reaching record levels and France鈥檚 economy in deep trouble. Aware of the opposition to austerity policies within France, Hollande promised to take on the German government. He would discuss 鈥�firmly and amicably鈥� with Ms Merkel and impress upon her the need for a new 鈥榞rowth pact鈥� for the Eurozone. His growth pact included proposals for Eurobonds to finance infrastructure spending and a transactions tax to fund development programs. His efforts came to nothing and the idea of a 鈥済rowth pact鈥� disappeared without a trace.

Something similar is happening today. Last Monday, a day after the French election, German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave a speech where she insisted that Macron鈥檚 victory would not change German policy in Europe. 探花直播German position is clear: France must reform its economy first, and bring its budget deficits well within the Eurozone鈥檚 rules, before there is any discussion on Eurozone reform. Even then, it is very unlikely that anything that was contained in Macron鈥檚 programme 鈥� creation of a Eurozone parliament, a Eurozone budget and a Eurozone finance minister 鈥� will see the light of day. Such changes would require treaty reform that national governments say is out of the question. Referendums have left European governments so bruised that they are unwilling to risk putting treaty changes to the vote.

There is an irony here. Macron has been an openly pro-European candidate, regularly waving the European flag and taking the Ode to Joy 鈥� the EU鈥檚鈥榓nthem鈥� 鈥� as his own campaign song. And yet, this very pro-Europeanism is what will most constrain a Macron presidency.

Most likely as a first step is that Macron will be pushed into cutting budgets and reforming labour markets, doing so possibly by decree given the history of opposition to such measures. In exchange, he may get some mild reforms of the functioning of the Eurozone but ones that fall short of any need for ratification through referendum or by national parliaments. This outcome may be part of Macron鈥檚 strategy, where the rigidity of the Eurozone鈥檚 rules is used as a means of pushing economic聽reforms onto France. Either way, the bigger difficulties, to do with structural imbalances of the Eurozone, will remain untouched.

A problem Macron has聽never confronted is that his promises to transform France鈥檚 national growth model are made within a context where Eurozone membership which makes such a change almost impossible. Macron鈥檚 election was extraordinary in many respects but his experience of life inside the Eurozone is likely to be rather more run of the mill. 聽

Chris Bickerton is lecturer in the Department of Politics and International Relations (POLIS) and a fellow of Queens鈥� College, Cambridge

Despite its novelty, Emmanuel Macron's election victory in France points to one important continuity, argues Dr Chris Bickerton.聽

There is an irony here. Macron has been an openly pro-European candidate, yet this pro-Europeanism is what will most constrain a Macron presidency.

Chris Bickerton

探花直播text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

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Brexit: Listen to experts from Cambridge and beyond discuss how, why and what next for Brexit Britain

fpjl2 — Wed, 02 Nov 2016 12:40:50 +0000

探花直播探花直播 of Cambridge recently held a week-long series of Brexit talks and discussions, featuring senior experts in law, politics, history, science and economics from Cambridge and聽beyond.

探花直播aim was to engage both 探花直播 students and the local community in debates on how Britain moves towards departure from the European Union in the wake of June鈥檚 referendum.

You can listen to some of the talks below, or download from iTunesU here.

聽

How Did We Get聽Here?

Tuesday 18th October

Robert Tombs, Professor of Modern European History at Cambridge's Faculty of聽History

Robert Tombs is the author of a聽recent epic history of England, and a renowned expert on nineteenth-century French political history and the relationship between the French and the British. During the EU Referendum campaign, he was a聽signatory on a letter produced by 鈥楬istorians for Britain鈥�, which supported a Leave vote, and has聽written about the future of the UK post-Brexit.

Dr Victoria Bateman, Fellow and College Lecturer in Economics at Gonville & Caius College, Cambridge

Victoria Bateman is an economic historian at Cambridge, and a Fellow at the聽Legatum Institute聽think tank. Her current research focuses on the European economy from early-modern times to the present. Victoria has called for a聽sexual revolution in economics聽due to a lack of women in the discipline, and聽wrote articles in favour of a Remain vote聽in the run-up to the EU Referendum. She tweets at聽@vnbateman.

Dr Chris Bickerton, 探花直播 Lecturer in Politics at POLIS and Official Fellow at Queens鈥� College, Cambridge

Chris Bickerton鈥檚 research focuses on the dynamics of state transformation and the challenges facing representative democracy in Europe. He has written a recently published book called聽探花直播European Union: A Citizen鈥檚 Guide. During the run-up to the EU Referendum, Chris聽wrote in favour of a Leave vote, making the left-wing case for Brexit. He tweets at聽@cjbickerton.

聽

Key Issues for the UK and EU Post-Brexit

Wednesday 19th October

Coen Teulings, Professor of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations at Cambridge鈥檚 Faculty of Economics

As well as holding the Montague Burton Chair at Cambridge, Coen Teulings is a Professor of Economics at the 探花直播 of Amsterdam. He has written extensively about wages and income inequality, and spent seven years as the Director of the Central Planning Bureau鈥娾€斺€妕he Netherlands鈥� official economic forecasting agency. He has talked publicly about the聽risks posed by Brexit to free trade.

Athene Donald, Professor of Experimental Physics at Cambridge鈥檚 Cavendish Laboratory and Master of Churchill College

Athene Donald has served on the 探花直播鈥檚 Council and as its gender equality champion. She was appointed a Dame Commander of the British Empire in 2010, and聽Master of Churchill College聽in 2013. Athene wrote and talked extensively on the聽dangers that a Leave vote posed for UK science聽during the run-up to the EU Referendum. She is a聽regular blogger, and tweets at聽@AtheneDonald.

Charles Clarke, former Home Secretary

Charles Clarke聽is a Visiting Professor at the Policy Institute of Kings College London. He was MP for Norwich South from 1997 to 2010, and served as Home Secretary between 2004 and 2006 in Tony Blair鈥檚 Labour Government. During the run-up to the EU Referendum, Charles co-authored a report warning that聽intelligence relationships would be damaged聽by a Leave vote.

聽

Process and Politics of the UK Leaving the聽EU

Thursday 20th October

David Runciman, Professor of Politics and Head of Department at POLIS and Fellow at Trinity Hall, Cambridge

David Runciman鈥檚 current research projects include the Leverhulme-funded聽Conspiracy and Democracy聽project and聽Future of Intelligence聽centre. In 2013, he published the book聽探花直播Confidence Trap, a history of democratic crises since WWI. David hosts the weekly podcast聽Talking Politics聽from his Cambridge office, and has written that the Referendum vote聽shone a light on the education divide in democracy.

Mark Elliott, Professor of Public Law at the Faculty of Law, and Fellow at St Catharine鈥檚 College, Cambridge

Mark Elliott has written a number of books on public law, and is Legal Adviser to the House of Lords Constitution Committee. Mark writes a highly regarded blog called聽Public Law for Everyone, on which he analyses many of the legal issues surrounding the triggering of聽Article 50聽and Theresa May鈥檚聽Great Repeal Bill. Mark tweets at聽@ProfMarkElliott, and the slides from this talk are available at his blog.聽

聽

Global Britain? 探花直播Future of British Trade after聽Brexit

Thursday 20th October

探花直播Rt. Hon.聽Greg Hands MP, Minister of State in the Department for International Trade, delivered this year鈥檚 Alcuin Lecture at Cambridge鈥檚 Department of Politics and International Studies (POLIS). Greg was appointed to his current position by Theresa May in July 2016, where he serves as number two to Secretary of State Liam Fox. He tweets at聽@GregHands.

聽

探花直播UK and Brexit: How, Why and Where聽Now?

Friday 21st October

Matthew Elliott, Head of Vote聽Leave

Matthew Elliott is the former Chief Executive of the聽Vote Leave campaign. He is now Editor-at-Large of聽BrexitCentral, recently launched with the aim of 鈥�promoting a positive vision of Britain after Brexit鈥�. He was a founder and former Chief Executive of the political think tank聽探花直播TaxPayers鈥� Alliance. Matthew tweets at @matthew_elliott.

Catherine Barnard, Professor of European Union Law and Employment Law at the Faculty of Law, and Fellow of Trinity College, Cambridge

Catherine Barnard is a leading expert on EU internal markets and employment law, publishing extensively in these fields. She is a Senior Fellow of the ESRC鈥檚聽UK in a Changing Europe聽initiative, and is jointly leading the聽EU Migrant Worker聽research project. Catherine regularly commented in the media during and after the EU Referendum. She has recently written that聽there could be free movement of workers in any Brexit deal. Catherine tweets at聽@CSBarnard24.

Jonathan Portes, Principal Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social聽Research

In addition to his role at the NIESR, Jonathan Portes is also a Senior Fellow of the聽UK in a Changing Europe聽initiative. Previously, he served as Chief Economist at the Cabinet Office. Jonathan鈥檚 new book,聽50 Capitalism Ideas You Really Need to Know, has just been published. During the run-up to the EU Referendum, he wrote on the聽misrepresentation of migration by sections of the media. Jonathan tweets at聽@jdportes.

Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King鈥檚 College聽London

Anand Menon聽is the Director of the聽UK in a Changing Europe聽initiative, and has written widely on many aspects of EU politics and policy and on UK-EU relations. As part of the initiative, he recently led on a report suggesting that 鈥�Brexit has the potential to test the UK鈥檚 constitutional settlement, legal framework, political process and bureaucratic capacities to their limits鈥�. Anand tweets at聽@anandMenon1.

Listen to some of the talks that were given as part of the 探花直播's 'Brexit Week' series, which took place from聽18 - 22 October. 聽

Ed Everett

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Opinion: Can the EU keep the peace in Europe? Not a chance

Anonymous — Wed, 28 Oct 2015 15:02:33 +0000

探花直播European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 because of its 鈥渟ix decade-long contribution to peace and human rights in Europe鈥�. In 2015, as the UK gears up towards its referendum on EU membership, we hear very often that the EU played a key role in building peace after World War II. For all its faults, the argument goes, the European Union is the best peace project Europe has.

There are three reasons why this is wrong. 探花直播first is that European integration contributed very little to the building of peace in post-war Europe. 探花直播second is that the EU鈥檚 record in keeping the peace on its external borders is poor. 探花直播third is that the Euro has aggravated conflicts between the members of the Eurozone: between north and south, creditor and debtor, exporter and importer.

It may seem crazy to suggest that the EU is not a peace project. This is, after all, its founding narrative. But history suggests otherwise for two reasons.

One is that in the late 1940s and 1950s there were many more powerful forces leading to peace in Europe. 探花直播shift from warfare to welfare states, made possible by the class compromise put in place after World War II, was crucial. European cooperation was really just an extension of that deeper change in European societies. 探花直播Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was intended to extend welfare provision to farmers.

Central to post-war peace in Europe was also the Cold War and the support given to Western Europe by the United States. Most important of all was the post-war boom. After the war, people wanted a better life and it was to their own governments that they turned.

Another reason is that the EU of today has little to do with European cooperation in the 1950s. Today鈥檚 EU has more recent roots. 探花直播Coal and Steel Community was a cartel intended to make European steel production more competitive and give the French access to West German coal. This initiative was quickly overcome by the economic success that raised demand for coal and steel. By 1957, it was quietly folded into the Treaty of Rome.

探花直播aim of the Treaty of Rome was to soften the effects of economic success. Growing economies push up wages and prices, which makes imports cheaper and leads to repeated balance of payments problems. Look at Britain鈥檚 Stop-Go economic experience of the 1950s and 1960s. A common external tariff, which raised the prices of imports, was Western Europe鈥檚 answer to this problem.

Today鈥檚 EU has its roots in economic crisis, not in economic success. Its history takes us back to the 1970s and the end of the post-war consensus. Governments sought many ways to exit this crisis and eventually settled on European market integration (the Single European Act) plus fiscal consolidation through more robust external rules (the Maastricht Treaty). This takes us to the EU and the euro of today.

Groundhog Europe

探花直播European Union has not been very successful at promoting peace beyond its own borders. 探花直播EU does have a foreign policy but it is stuck in a time loop.

If one goes back 20 years to 1995, the kinds of questions being raised about Europe鈥檚 role in promoting peace related to whether it would speak with one voice. This was the time of the Yugoslav war when European divisions meant that the United States got heavily involved in the Balkans. People wondered if the EU would finally become not just an economic giant but a political one, too. People described 1995 as a crossroads and a watershed moment.

Fast forward to 2005 and the very same clich茅s are being used. Two years after the US invasion of Iraq had divided Europe, people asked when it would speak with one voice. 探花直播EU was again at a crossroads. This was two years after the EU鈥檚 first Security Strategy, intended to give Europe a sense of direction in foreign policy.

Today, we hear much the same thing and Europeans are once again drafting a new security strategy. 探花直播war in Ukraine led commentators to lament the divisions between EU member states. 探花直播rise of Islamic State in the Middle East has made people wonder if the EU will ever become a regional power or whether it will always have a 鈥渓owest common denominator鈥� foreign policy.

As in the film Groundhog Day, where Bill Murray is stuck in a time loop, the European Union is forced to relive its foreign policy frustrations time and time again. Groundhog Day has a Hollywood-style happy ending; the EU may not be so lucky.

探花直播euro versus democracy

探花直播euro was meant to lead to convergence in Europe. It was expected that a single currency would lead to harmonisation of national business cycles. Instead, the buzzword amongst economists is heterogeneity.

探花直播euro has created new divisions but it has also cemented older ones. It has exaggerated the differences between productive and unproductive national economies. It has heightened intra-Eurozone competition. New divisions between debtors and creditors have broken out. There is no single European economy, just very different national economies. More than ever before, the economic map of Europe looks like it did in the 19th century when advanced northern societies complained about the 鈥渂ackwardness鈥� of southern and eastern Europe.

A solution to this is to build a political union with fiscal powers. Transfers from rich to poor parts of Europe would iron out today鈥檚 enormous gaps. There is no political appetite for this anywhere, neither among elites nor among domestic publics. As a result, the survival of the Eurozone seems set against national democracy. Few accept this at present but the euro and national democracy may be incompatible.

We are right to ask if Europe can keep the peace. 探花直播answer is 鈥渘o鈥�. Peace in Europe owes much to other factors and the EU has done little to build peace beyond its borders. Peace within Europe has become fragile as the euro unleashes competitive pressures that pit national economies against one another.

Chris Bickerton, Lecturer in politics at POLIS, 探花直播 of Cambridge

This article was originally published on 探花直播Conversation. Read the original article.

Inset image:聽Marcha en Madrid en solidaridad con Grecia y por el NO (OXI) en el refer茅ndum griego聽(Adolfo Lujan).

探花直播opinions expressed in this article are those of the individual author(s) and do not represent the views of the 探花直播 of Cambridge.

Chris Bickerton (Department of Politics and International Relations) discusses the role of the European Union.

Stuart Chalmers

European Commission

探花直播text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

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探花直播8th Cambridge Festival of Ideas launches

Anonymous — Mon, 19 Oct 2015 10:13:00 +0000

探花直播packed two-week programme brings together many of the world鈥檚 leading thinkers and experts to tackle a series of critical issues, from privacy and the impact of technology to immigration and censorship, inspired by the theme of power and resistance.

Headline speakers include Professors Lord Martin Rees, Dominic Lieven, David Runciman, John Macnicol and Rae Langton. They are joined by BBC鈥檚 Alan Yentob, author Peter Hitchens, photographers Toby Smith and Judith Aronson, journalists Ian Dunt and Emily Dugan, CEO of Index on Censorship Jodie Ginsberg, and musical innovators Asian Dub Foundation. 聽聽

Social media and technology come under the spotlight, with events examining聽how revolutionary movements interact with technologies聽such as Facebook and Twitter;聽issues of privacy聽in today鈥檚 technology-dependent society 鈥� particularly relevant in view of whistleblower Edward Snowden鈥檚 recent revelations that security services can gain total access to user鈥檚 devices; and the advantages and disadvantages of computers that聽predict our personalities聽and interact with us intelligently, and the many ethical questions these topics raise.

Political issues including the future of Europe and immigration are also at the heart this year鈥檚 Festival. On the theme of the future of Europe is the debate聽Can Europe Keep the Peace?聽探花直播speakers include historian Professor Robert Tombs; Montserrat Guibernau, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary 探花直播 of London and author of the forthcoming book聽Solidarity and Division in the EU; and Dr Chris Bickerton, a politics lecturer at the 探花直播 of Cambridge and author of the award-winning book聽European Integration: From Nation-States to Member States.

Further political-themed events include聽Can Writers and Artists Ever Be Terrorists?聽a debate with Professor Anthony Glees, 聽Director of the Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies at 探花直播探花直播 of Buckingham; Turkish artist and anti-censorship campaigner Pelin Basaran; Jodie Ginsberg, CEO of Index on Censorship; and Dr Sara Silvestri who specialises in radicalisation. 探花直播question of whether national broadcasters can be truly independent at a time of war is considered in the debate聽War, Censorship and Propaganda, with Professor Christopher Andrew, Official Historian of MI5; Professor David Welch, director of the Centre for the Study of Propaganda and War at the 探花直播 of Kent; Dr Peter Busch from King鈥檚 College London on the use of social media for propaganda purposes; and Caroline Wyatt, former defence correspondent at the BBC.

A key Festival highlight is the 24-hour event,聽Arena: night and day. For one day and one night聽Arena聽infiltrates Cambridge in a series of pop-up locations showing the likes of Bob Dylan, Francis Bacon, Sister Wendy, Harold Pinter, Bob Marley, T.S. Eliot and Luis Bunuel to name just a few. Following the filmic inundation of Cambridge, members of the team will discuss the secrets of the programme鈥檚 success and聽the future of public service broadcasting聽with Cambridge 探花直播 film experts and the BBC鈥檚 Alan Yentob. 探花直播talk will consider new broadcasting formats and platforms, for instance online, and critical partnerships with universities and communities, seeking core interaction between the best research and best creatives.

Gender issues continue to be contentious and the Festival debates some of the current issues in a number of events including a panel discussion that explores the implications of聽trans identities for religious faith, with speaker Reverend Christina Beardsley. In addition, Dr Julia Long will take a look at the nature and prevalence of mainstream聽pornography, considering its impact and effects, and raising critical questions regarding feminist resistance within an increasingly pornified society.

Talks on several聽new books聽are a key highlight of this year鈥檚 Festival:

Author Bidisha and award-winning journalist Emily Dugan will be in conversation about their new books on the lives of聽refugees and immigrants聽who have made it to the UK, the books go behind the headlines to reveal the personal dramas of ordinary men and women trying to make a new life in the UK.
Professor John Macnicol will be discussing his new book (due out this week), which examines the effect of聽neoliberalism聽on the recent ageing and social policy agenda in the UK and the USA. 探花直播book outlines past theories of old age and examines pensions reform, the debate on life expectancy gains, the causes of retirement, the idea of intergenerational equity, the current debate on ageism/age discrimination and the likely human consequences of raising state pension ages.
Paul Wallace, a leading commentator on the economics of the European Union, will also be talking about his new book,聽 探花直播Euro Experiment, which explains how and why the euro crisis happened, and the implications for the economic and political future of Europe.
Professor Ulinka Rublack's new book,聽 探花直播Astronomer and the Witch: Johannes Kepler鈥檚 Defence of his Mother聽(due out this month), tells the shocking story of how the mother of the famous scientist Kepler was accused of witchcraft. In conversation with Juliet Mitchell, the author explores historical resistance to women as well as ways in which families have been implicated in mechanisms of power.

Established in 2008, Cambridge Festival of Ideas aims to fuel the public鈥檚 interest in arts, humanities and social sciences. 探花直播events, ranging from talks, debates and film screenings to exhibitions and comedy nights, are held in lecture halls, theatres, museums and galleries around Cambridge. Of the over 250 events at the Festival, most are free.

探花直播Festival sponsors and partners are Cambridge 探花直播 Press, St John鈥檚 College, Anglia Ruskin 探花直播, RAND Europe, Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), Cambridge Live, 探花直播 of Cambridge Museums and Botanic Garden, Arts Council England, Cambridge Junction, British Science Association, Heritage Lottery Fund, Heffers, WOW Festival, Southbank Centre, Collusion, TTP Group, Goethe Institut, Index on Censorship and BBC Cambridgeshire.

Cambridge Festival of Ideas 2015 launches today with over 250 events exploring arts, society and culture.

探花直播text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

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