̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Christopher Rauh

Women bear brunt of coronavirus economic shutdown in UK and US

fpjl2 — Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:29:43 +0000

Women on both sides of the Atlantic are more likely to have lost their jobs or suffered a fall in earnings since the coronavirus pandemic took hold – even after accounting for differences in types of occupation, a new study suggests.

Economists from the universities of Cambridge, Oxford and Zurich have collected two waves of data in the UK and the US – the first toward the end of March and then again in the middle of April – from almost 15,000 people.

̽��ֱ��second wave of data from mid-April suggests that – across gender, age and occupation – a total of 15% of the UK population have lost their jobs due to the economic impact of coronavirus. In the US it’s even higher: a total of 18%.

However, significantly higher rates of women and workers without a degree had experienced job loss or wage drops in the four weeks prior to questioning, compared to men and those with a university education.

In the UK, 13% of workers with a degree lost their job compared to 18% without a university education. In the US, the rate of job loss was 22% for those without a college degree compared to 15% of college-educated workers.

Women in the UK are four percentage points more likely to have lost their job than men, with 17% of women newly unemployed compared to 13% of men. ̽��ֱ��gap in the US was even wider: 21% of women compared to 14% of men.

̽��ֱ��researchers found that this gender gap in job loss due to coronavirus persisted even after controlling for education, occupation and regional location within each nation.

“We found that people without university degrees are more likely to be working in jobs with tasks that just can’t be done from home, making them more vulnerable to loss of employment,” said Dr Christopher Rauh, a report author from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics.

“While we can fully explain the education gap for job loss probabilities by differences in the types of work, the same is simply not true for the gender gap we see in job loss,” he said.

Despite this, the survey study found that – on average across both countries – women are more optimistic than men about their chances of keeping their job going forward.

̽��ֱ��researchers suggest that one potential reason for the gender gap they identify might be found in hours spent homeschooling and caring for children.

Data gathered from 9-14 April show that, on average during a typical working day, men in the UK spend under 2.5 hours on childcare, and do under two hours of homeschooling.

Women in the UK, however, spend over 3.5 hours on childcare, and do over two hours of homeschooling. In the US this childcare and homeschool gender gap is very similar, although slightly smaller.

̽��ֱ��type of occupation makes a massive difference to whether the coronavirus economic shock had taken your job in the last month. In the US, food serving and preparation was by far the worst hit type of occupation with 40% losing their jobs, followed by transportation and then production.

In the UK, the cleaners and maintenance workers have fared worst with 33% losing their jobs, closely followed by personal care services, then food workers and construction. In both countries, those who work in computing and occupations such as architects and engineers were least affected by loss of employment.

̽��ֱ��research also found a stark difference in job or earnings loss across the board between those on permanent contracts compared with temporary contracts, and those who can fully work from home compared with those who cannot do any. However, these inequalities were far greater in the US than the UK.

̽��ֱ��latest research builds on the first wave of survey work conducted near the end of March, which showed that those under the age of thirty and on lower incomes were more likely to have seen wage and job losses.

Added Rauh: “In general, younger individuals across the board, as well as women and those without university education, were significantly more likely to report experiencing drops in income.”

“ ̽��ֱ��outlook on the future is bleak. Of all those still employed, 32% of people in the UK and 37% of people in the US believe they will lose their jobs in the next few months,” he said.

“Our findings highlight the need for immediate policy responses that target those most aﬀected by the economic crisis.”

̽��ֱ��findings by the research team, composed of Rauh along with the ̽��ֱ�� of Oxford's Abi Adams-Prassl and Marta Golin and the ̽��ֱ�� of Zurich's Teodora Boneva, are published as a working paper through the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge Institute for New Economic Thinking: https://www.inet.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-pdfs/wp2018.pdf.

̽��ֱ��Cambridge-INET Institute has now launched a dedicated website for all their coronavirus-related research: covid.econ.cam.ac.uk.

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

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New data shows women and people who did not go to university are more likely to have lost work and earnings since mid-March.

Of all those still employed, 32% of people in the UK and 37% of people in the US believe they will lose their jobs in the next few months

Christopher Rauh

Craig Whitehead

Chef in Soho, London.

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Younger workers hit harder by coronavirus economic shock in UK and US

fpjl2 — Fri, 03 Apr 2020 09:53:09 +0000

Workers under the age of thirty, as well as those on lower incomes, on both sides of the Atlantic are already bearing the brunt of the economic shutdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, latest research finds.

Data collected by economists towards the end of March shows younger workers in the UK and US were more likely to have either recently lost their job or seen a drop in hours and earnings compared to workers in middle age.

Researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Oxford and Zurich also found that those under 30 and still in employment believed they were much more likely to lose their job by August, compared to those aged 40-55.

̽��ֱ��research suggests that in the UK, 8% of all workers employed in February had already lost their jobs. A third of all those still in work expected to lose their jobs within the next four months.

In the US, 11% of all workers had already lost their jobs due to COVID-19, and 40% of all those still working expected job loss by August.

Workers on lower incomes – those earning below 20,000 pounds or dollars a year – across all age groups in both countries were more likely to have lost their job in the preceding four weeks than workers earning over £40k in the UK or $50k in the States.

Those still employed on lower incomes in the UK and US could conduct a much smaller percentage of their normal working tasks from the safety of home.

Data was collected from “a large geographically representative sample” in each country say researchers. A total of 3,974 people in the UK were surveyed on March 25, two days into the government-imposed lockdown. ̽��ֱ��US data came from 4,003 people on March 24.

“Our findings suggest that the immediate impact of the coronavirus downturn on workers has been large and unequal, with younger workers and those at the bottom of the income distribution hit hardest,” said Dr Christopher Rauh from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics, who led the research.

“In the short term, there is a need to provide quick assistance to help those hit hardest to cover their bills in the coming weeks. Around half of all workers on both sides of the Atlantic expect to have difficulty paying their usual bills,” Rauh said.

“In the long term, the economic shock caused by the pandemic is highly likely to increase inequality between young and old, between higher and lower earners, and between those on secure and insecure contracts.”

̽��ֱ��survey found that workers on UK statutory sick pay, and those without paid sick leave in the US, were more likely to say they would to go into work with a cold or light fever. Researchers say that “paid sick leave policies should be rethought not only in light of workers’ welfare but public health as a whole”.

In both countries, far more self-employed people earned less than usual the week prior to the survey compared with those on permanent contracts.

̽��ֱ��research was done before the UK Chancellor announced new measures for the self-employed, beginning in June. However, the researchers caution that it “might be too late to prevent severe economic hardship”.

Added Rauh: “Preventing this shock from scarring the employment progression of the younger generation and the less-economically advantaged is vital if we are to avoid permanent damage to economies and individual welfare.”

̽��ֱ��findings have just been published as two working papers through the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge Institute for New Economic Thinking: Working paper, UK; Working paper, US.

̽��ֱ��Cambridge-INET Institute has now launched a dedicated website for all their coronavirus-related research: http://covid.econ.cam.ac.uk.

Key UK findings:

On average across all UK workers, people expect to earn 35% less in the next four months compared to usual.
69% of workers under 30 reported working fewer hours the previous week compared to usual and 58% reported earning less, compared to 49% and 36% of workers aged 40-55 respectively.
10% of workers under 30 are now unemployed because of COVID-19, compared to 6% of workers aged 40-55.
On average, those under 30 and still employed believe they have a 39% chance of job loss by August, compared to 27% for 40-55 year olds.
Workers earning under £20,000 can do 30% of the tasks in their main job from home compared to 55% for those earning more than £40,000.
12% of low-income workers earnings are now unemployed because of COVID-19 compared to 5% of higher earners.
Workers earning less than £20,000 expect to earn just 58% of their usual income between now and August. Those earning more than £40,000 expect to make 69% of their usual income on average.
43% of workers with just statutory sick pay said they usually go to work with a cold or light fever, compared to 31% of workers with additional paid sick leave.

Key US findings:

On average across all US workers, people expect to earn 39% less in the next four months compared to usual.
72% of workers under 30 reported working fewer hours the previous week compared to usual and 61% reported earning less, compared to 62% and 55% of workers aged 40-55 respectively.
On average, those under 30 and still employed believe they have a 43% chance of job loss by August, compared to 40% for 40-55 year olds.
Workers earning under $20,000 can do 42% of the tasks in their main job from home compared to 57% for those earning more than $50,000.
16% of low-income workers earnings are now unemployed because of COVID-19 compared to 7% of higher earners.
Workers earning less than $20,000 expect to earn just 48% of their usual income between now and August. Those earning more than $50,000 expect to make 69% of their usual income on average.
26% of workers without paid sick leave report they would go to work with a cold or light fever, compared to 24% of those with paid sick leave.

Listen to Dr Chris Rauh and Dr Meredith Crowley from the Faculty of Economics discuss the economic implications of COVID-19 with Dr Rob Doubleday from the ̽��ֱ��'s Centre for Science and Policy.

How you can support Cambridge's COVID-19 research effort

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Those on low incomes are also more likely to have lost jobs or pay, and less able to complete work tasks from home. Researchers warn the COVID-19 downturn is likely to “increase inequality between young and old”.

̽��ֱ��immediate impact of the coronavirus downturn on workers has been large and unequal

Christopher Rauh

Ken Fager

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