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Global politics on the agenda at Hay

bjb42 — Sun, 22 May 2011 12:40:28 +0000

How can global organisations be more representative of rising powers? It's one of the big issues of our times as we witness enormous shifts in the world's power dynamics, but it's not a new one.

Amrita Narlikar heads a new centre at Cambridge which uniquely attempts to look at the impact of rising global powers by placing it in a historical as well as political and economic context. She will talk about one aspect of this work – world trade – at the forthcoming Hay Festival [26 May to 5 June], where she joins 17 others ̽��ֱ�� speakers as part of the Cambridge series.

Dr Narlikar's talk will centre on the World Trade Organisation, but will broach wider questions of multilateral reform. “ ̽��ֱ��WTO is a fantastic example of attempts to accommodate the new powers like Brazil, China and India – the opportunities this presents and the unanticipated problems,” she says.

She adds that the WTO is quite distinctive as it has responded fairly well to the rise of new powers compared to other global institutions, such as the UN Security Council. It has given the new powers a major role in high table negotiations and decision-making. “It is one of the few organisations that has responded. You would expect this to make the balance of power fairer, but lots of unanticipated challenges have resulted,” she argues.

One of the positives is a greater diversity of players, but this has slowed down decision-making. Increasing the number of players coming to the table with different viewpoints has created a situation of recurrent deadlock. Trade rounds are taking longer to finish and, as a result, people are becoming more disengaged from the discussions, says Dr Narlikar.

Another problem is that, although there has been a broadening of the decision-makers at the WTO, the actual process of decision-making has not been reformed. It still relies on reaching a consensus on the issues being discussed. “That worked when the GATT talks were a rich man's club, a small group of countries which agreed with each other. It's very different when there is a diversity of countries at the core, with allies in the developing world. Consensus-based decision-making breaks down,” says Dr Narlikar.

Her talk will argue the need for the decision-making process to adapt to a more pluralistic system. “ ̽��ֱ��current system greatly delays the benefits of increasing diversification and creates a very polarised system which is not good if we value stability,” she says.

̽��ֱ��Centre for Rising Powers, which had its inaugural lecture on 12 May, is different from the other new country-specific research centres which has sprung up in response to the rise of the BRICs, says Dr Narlikar. ̽��ֱ��CRP looks at the rise and fall of powers theoretically and historically and how they negotiate and bargain for a place at the power table. “People are behaving as if this transition period has never happened before, but it is a deep-rooted phenomenon and there is always the risk of systemic upheaval,” says Dr Narlikar. “Further, as power transitions seldom happen in a vacuum, the Centre is just as interested in the established powers and other members of the international system that have to deal with, manage, or withstand the rise of new powers.”

̽��ֱ��CRP is very interdisciplinary – its steering committee includes academics with a background in economics, history and political science as well as practitioners. Dr Narlikar highlights that the Centre is committed to cutting-edge research, but with a view to informing and engaging with policy. Other events planned for the future include a panel discussion with former British ambassadors to Brazil, India and China.

Dr Narlikar's talk is just one of a range of sessions being given by Cambridge academics at the Hay Festival. They cover everything from Renaissance costume to liberal ideas about toleration to the history of astronomy. For full details, click here.

Ahead of her talk at the Hay Festival, Dr Amrita Narlikar, Director of the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge's new Centre for Rising Powers, discusses how countries like Brazil and China are changing the shape of global politics.

Consensus-based decision-making worked when trade talks were a rich man's club. It's very different with a diversity of countries at the core. 

Dr Amrita Narlikar

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Power in the balance

bjb42 — Wed, 11 May 2011 11:08:11 +0000

̽��ֱ��Centre for Rising Powers will bring together academics from different subject areas whose research touches on one of the most important questions in international relations: How different powers rise to the top of international politics, and how to predict the impact they will have when they do so?

Its formal launch will take place this Thursday (12 May), with an inaugural lecture given by Joseph Nye, ̽��ֱ�� Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard ̽��ֱ�� and one of the most influential researchers in the field of foreign policy and international relations.

Professor Nye is a former chairman of the US National Intelligence Council, served as Assistant Secretary of Defence for International Security Affairs under President Bill Clinton and currently co-chairs both America’s main cyber security project and the Advisory board of the USC Centre on Public Diplomacy. His lecture will be on the future of US-China relations.

In keeping with his theme, some of the Centre’s research will concern the big, emerging powers of the present day – in particular the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China. All four are expected to figure in the list of leading world economies by the year 2050, raising questions about the challenge they will pose to the liberal, western powers who have effectively dictated the course of international politics since the end of the Cold War.

Uniquely, however, the Centre for Rising Powers will also look beyond the immediate cases of the 21^st century. Researchers will also look at historical cases to understand more about how new powers emerge, how they can be accommodated, and the effect that this has on international stability in different cases. ̽��ֱ��rise and fall of Germany in the 19^th and 20^th centuries, or the emergence of the USA or the Soviet Union as global leaders over the course of the 20^th, could in this sense provide lessons for the future as valuable as those which can be drawn from the study of rising powers today.

̽��ֱ��changes which occur as a result of transitions in the world order are felt far beyond established corridors of power. By altering the course of international politics, these countries also impact on the global response to issues such as climate change, trade, international finance, migration, poverty reduction and international security. Far more than diplomacy alone rests on having a clear understanding of their intentions, their negotiating behaviour, and what the consequences of their leadership on such issues are likely to be.

̽��ֱ��findings which emerge from the Centre’s research will be fed back to international policy-makers. ̽��ֱ��new Centre already has links with various think-tanks, policy institutions and private sector organisations, and seminars, conferences and workshops in which research can be communicated back to these groups will be held by the Centre on a regular basis.

Dr Amrita Narlikar, Director of the Centre for Rising Powers, said: “Power transitions are one of the main sources of deadlock and conflict on the world stage, but they also have the potential to act as sources of renewal and change for the better.”

“As a result, the study of how powers rise and how the process should be handled has a direct impact on international co-operation, peace and stability – and on more general values such as efficiency, fairness and justice in the global order. ̽��ֱ��research that the Centre produces will, in some form or other, be of international policy relevance.”

̽��ֱ��inaugural lecture of the Centre for Rising Powers will be given by Professor Joseph Nye in the Old Library, Pembroke College, on Thursday, 12 May, 2011. For more information about the Centre for Rising Powers, its members and its work, please visit the website: https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/

A new research hub dedicated to the study of emerging powers and how different nations evolve to become leading political forces on the world stage, is being created at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge.

Power transitions are one of the main sources of deadlock and conflict on the world stage, but they also have the potential to act as sources of renewal and change for the better.

Dr Amrita Narlikar

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