̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Bill Sutherland

Turbocharging the race to protect nature and climate with AI

lw355 — Sun, 06 Apr 2025 17:00:51 +0000

Rebalancing the planet must happen faster. Cambridge researchers are using AI to help.

Experts predict ‘catastrophic ecosystem collapse’ of UK forests within the next 50 years if action not taken

cg605 — Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:05:54 +0000

A team of experts from across Europe has produced a list of 15 over-looked and emerging issues that are likely to have a significant impact on UK forests over the next 50 years.

This is the first ‘horizon scanning’ exercise – a technique to identify relatively unknown threats, opportunities, and new trends – of UK forests. ̽��ֱ��aim is to help researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and society in general, better prepare for the future and address threats before they become critical.

Dr Eleanor Tew, first author, visiting researcher at Cambridge’s Department of Zoology and Head of Forest Planning at Forestry England said: “ ̽��ֱ��next 50 years will bring huge changes to UK forests: the threats they face, the way that we manage them, and the benefits they deliver to society.”

Forestry England, a part of the Forestry Commission, collaborated with the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge on the study, which was published today in the journal, Forestry.

A panel comprising 42 experts, who represented a range of professions, organisations, and geographies, reached out to their networks to seek over-looked and emerging issues that were likely to affect UK forests over the next half a century. ̽��ֱ��resulting 180-item longlist was then whittled down through a series of review exercises to a shortlist of 30 issues. In a final workshop, panellists identified the top 15 issues they believed were likely to have the greatest impact on UK forests in the next 50 years.

̽��ֱ��research method did not support the overall ranking of the 15 issues in order of importance or likelihood of occurrence. However, when the issues were scored individually by the panel of experts, it was notable that ‘catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’ was the most highly ranked issue, with 64% of experts ranking it as their top issue and 88% ranking it within their top three.

‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’ refers to multiple interrelated hazards that have a cascading effect on forests, leading to their total or partial collapse. This has already been witnessed in continental Europe and North America.

Tew said: “We hope the results from this horizon scanning exercise serve as an urgent call to action to build on, and dramatically upscale, action to increase forest resilience.”

Another issue identified was that droughts caused by climate change may lead to competition for water resources between forests and society. On the other hand, forests may help to mitigate the impact of floods caused by climate change.

Tree viral diseases were also identified as an issue. In the UK, pests and pathogens are increasing due to globalisation and climate change, with viruses and viroids (RNA molecules) being the largest group on the UK Plant Health Risk Register. However, little is known about how viral diseases affect forest tree species and indeed the wider ecosystem.

A further issue was the effect of climate change on forest management, with extreme weather leading to smaller windows of time when forestry can be carried out. Experts warn that the seasons for carrying out work such as harvesting and thinning are getting narrower as we see wetter winters and scorching summers.

However not all emerging issues are threats – some are new opportunities. For example, trees will be at the heart of future urban planning. Experts predict that ‘forest lungs’ will be created thanks to an increased understanding of the benefits of trees for society. They say there will likely be a greater blurring of boundaries between urban and rural areas, with an increase in green infrastructure and connectivity.

International commitments around nature are also likely to have repercussions at the local level. For example, the mandatory reporting of companies’ supply chain impacts on nature, such as through the new framework being developed by the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD), could create additional incentives for nature-friendly forest management.

Tew concluded: “These results are both concerning and exciting. However, we should be optimistic, remembering that these are possibilities and not certainties. Crucially, we have time to act ‒ by responding to the threats and embracing the opportunities, future generations can have resilient forests with all the benefits they offer.”

Senior author and pioneer of horizon scanning, Professor Bill Sutherland, from the Department of Zoology at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge said: “We are already seeing dramatic events in Europe’s forests whether fires, disease or bark beetles, whilst the importance of trees is increasingly recognised. Horizon scanning to identify future issues is key, especially as trees planted now will face very different circumstances as they mature in scores of years.”

This research was funded by Forestry England. ̽��ֱ��Forestry Commission is bringing the sector together in 2024 to look at next steps.

Tew et al, A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years, Forestry DOI: 10.1093/forestry/cpad047

Other threats to UK forests include competition with society for water, viral diseases, and extreme weather affecting forest management.

̽��ֱ��next 50 years will bring huge changes to UK forests: the threats they face, the way that we manage them, and the benefits they deliver to society.

Dr Eleanor Tew, visiting researcher at Cambridge’s Department of Zoology and Head of Forest Planning at Forestry England

Graham Custance Photography / Moment via Getty Images

Ashridge, Hertfordshire, UK

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

Yes

Protecting Europe’s seabirds

cg605 — Thu, 08 Dec 2022 16:19:04 +0000

Numerous European seabirds are at risk from climate change, according to new research led by ZSL ( ̽��ֱ��Zoological Society of London) in collaboration with the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge.

Researchers have published a first-of-its-kind conservation guide to protecting the 47 species that breed along the Atlantic coastline; offering hope for the future of these important marine birds, by assessing their species-specific needs and laying out the actions needed to preserve each one.

ZSL Institute of Zoology post-doctoral fellow, Henry Häkkinen, who led the production of the guidelines, said: “It’s unthinkable that the Atlantic puffin, one of Europe’s most treasured seabirds, could disappear from our shores by the end of the century – alongside other important marine bird species.

“Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, with many already seeing rapid global declines due to the impacts of human activity and climate change, including changes to food availability, extreme weather conditions and the loss of breeding grounds.

“These birds face double the challenges as they breed on land but rely on the sea for survival; by living across these two worlds, they are essential to both ecosystems and give us a glimpse into the health of wildlife in otherwise hard-to-monitor areas of the ocean – meaning their loss would impact countless other species and their conservation.”

̽��ֱ��two-year project to create the guidelines gathered evidence from more than 80 conservationists and policymakers across 15 European countries, alongside carefully collated information available from scientific papers across 10 different languages.

̽��ֱ��pioneering European collaboration is the first to co-develop guidelines in this way, with the team hoping to scale up the project to map the risks to seabirds on a global scale.

“Seabirds are migratory, flying vast distances overseas and oceans, and so to truly enhance conservation efforts we need to understand how climate change is altering their environment across their entire range.

“It’s essential to develop strong conservation measures to protect these birds against the climate crisis, but this requires species-specific understanding of the threats that they face. For some birds, like puffins, we have a strong grasp of how climate change impacts them, but for many species, such as eider ducks and ivory gulls, this knowledge is severely lacking. These gaps need to be urgently addressed for us to help these birds to survive.”

Project lead, ZSL Senior Research Fellow Dr Nathalie Pettorelli added: “ ̽��ֱ��challenges posed by rapid changes in climatic conditions require efficient coordination between science, policy and advocacy to ensure key questions are given research priority and effective conservation actions can be deployed in areas where they are most needed. These seabird conservation guidelines – and the process behind them – provide a vital and transferable framework that can help align efforts to prioritise and implement evidence-based climate change adaptation practices to safeguard a future for the species most at risk.

“ ̽��ֱ��time to act is now if we are to buffer species from the impacts of climate change.”

̽��ֱ��guidelines will be made available to all conservationists working with seabirds across Europe.

Article adapted from a press release by ZSL.

New conservation guide launched to protect European seabirds at risk from climate change

̽��ֱ��time to act is now if we are to buffer species from the impacts of climate change

Nathalie Pettorelli

Seppo Häkkinen

A group of puffins on a cliff at the Farne Islands by Seppo Häkkinen

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

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Experts predict top emerging impacts on ocean biodiversity over next decade

jg533 — Thu, 07 Jul 2022 15:08:56 +0000

An international team of experts has produced a list of 15 issues they believe are likely to have a significant impact on marine and coastal biodiversity over the next five to ten years.

Their ‘horizon scanning’ technique focuses on identifying issues that are not currently receiving widespread attention, but are likely to become important over the next decade. ̽��ֱ��aim is to raise awareness and encourage investment into full assessment of these issues now, and potentially drive policy change, before the issues have a major impact on biodiversity.

̽��ֱ��issues include the impacts of wildfires on coastal ecosystems, the effects of new biodegradable materials on the marine environment, and an ‘empty’ zone at the equator as species move away from this warming region of the ocean.

“Marine and coastal ecosystems face a wide range of emerging issues that are poorly recognised or understood, each having the potential to impact biodiversity,” said Dr James Herbert-Read in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, joint first author of the paper.

He added: “By highlighting future issues, we’re pointing to where changes must be made today - both in monitoring and policy – to protect our marine and coastal environments.”

̽��ֱ��horizon scan involved 30 experts in marine and coastal systems from 11 countries in the global north and south, from a variety of backgrounds including scientists and policy-makers. ̽��ֱ��results are published today in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution.

Several of the issues identified are linked to exploitation of ocean resources. For example, deep sea ‘brine pools’ are unique marine environments home to a diversity of life - and have high concentrations of salts containing lithium. ̽��ֱ��authors warn that rising demand for lithium for electric vehicle batteries may put these environments at risk. They call for rules to ensure biodiversity is assessed before deep sea brine pools are exploited.

While overfishing is an immediate problem, the horizon scan looked beyond this to what might happen next. ̽��ֱ��authors think there may soon be a move to fishing in the deeper waters of the mesopelagic zone (a depth of 200m – 1,000m), where fish are not fit for human consumption but can be sold as food to fish farms.

“There are areas where we believe immediate changes could prevent huge problems arising over the next decade, such as overfishing in the ocean’s mesopelagic zone,” said Dr Ann Thornton in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, joint first author on the paper.

She added: “Curbing this would not only stop overexploitation of these fish stocks, but reduce the disruption of carbon cycling in the ocean - because these species are an ocean pump that removes carbon from our atmosphere.”

̽��ֱ��report also highlights the potential impact of new biodegradable materials on the ocean. Some of these materials are more toxic to marine species than traditional plastics.

Herbert-Read said: “Governments are making a push for the use of biodegradable materials - but we don’t know what impacts these materials may have on ocean life.”

̽��ֱ��authors also warn that the nutritional content of fish is declining as a consequence of climate change. Essential fatty acids tend to be produced by cold-water fish species, so as climate change raises ocean temperatures, the production of these nutritious molecules is reduced. Such changes may have impacts on both marine life and human health.

Not all of the predicted impacts are negative. ̽��ֱ��authors think the development of new technologies, such as soft robotics and better underwater tracking systems, will enable scientists to learn more about marine species and their distribution. This, in turn, will guide the development of more effective marine protected areas. But they also warn that the impacts of these technologies on biodiversity must be assessed before they are deployed at scale.

“Our early identification of these issues, and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity, will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers, policy-makers and the wider community in addressing the challenges facing marine ecosystems,” said Herbert-Read.

While there are many well-known issues facing ocean biodiversity including climate change, ocean acidification and pollution, this study focused on lesser-known emerging issues that could soon have significant impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems.

This horizon scanning process has previously been used by researchers from the Department of Zoology to identify issues that have later come to prominence, for example, a scan in 2009 gave an early warning that microplastics could become a major problem in marine environments.

̽��ֱ��United Nations has designated 2021-2030 as the ‘UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development.’ In addition, the fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity will conclude negotiations on a global biodiversity framework in late 2022. ̽��ֱ��aim is to slow and reverse the loss of biodiversity, and establish goals for positive outcomes by 2050.

This research was funded by Oceankind.

Reference

Herbert-Read, JE et al. ‘A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation.’ Nature Ecology and Evolution, July 2022. DOI: 10.1038/s41559-022-01812-0

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̽��ֱ��full list of issues identified by the report includes:

Ecosystem impacts

Wildfire impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems
Coastal darkening
Increased toxicity of metal pollution due to ocean acidification
Equatorial marine communities becoming depauperate (lacking variety) due to climate migration
Altered nutritional content of fish due to climate change

Resource exploitation

Untapped potential of marine collagens and their impacts on marine ecosystems
Impacts of expanding trade for fish swim bladders on target and non-target species
Impacts of fishing for mesopelagic (middle-depth) species on the biological ocean pump
Extraction of lithium from deep-sea brine pools

Novel technologies

Co-location of marine activities
Floating marine cities
Trace element contamination compounded by the global transition to green technologies
New underwater tracking systems to study non-surfacing marine animals
Soft robotics for marine research
Effects of new biodegradable materials in the marine environment

Lithium extraction from the deep sea, overfishing of deeper-water species, and the unexpected ocean impacts of wildfires on land are among 15 issues experts warn we ought to be addressing now.

By highlighting future issues, we’re pointing to where changes must be made today - both in monitoring and policy – to protect our marine and coastal environments

James Herbert-Read

Emma Johnston

Marine ecosystem

Yes

Licence type:

Attribution

Conservation: it’s time to look at the evidence

jg533 — Wed, 29 Jun 2022 08:29:24 +0000

Professor Bill Sutherland is leading a conservation revolution to reverse the dramatic loss of global biodiversity

Lack of transparency over cost of conservation projects hampers ability to prioritise funds for nature protection

jg533 — Wed, 23 Mar 2022 13:00:08 +0000

A review of 1,987 published reports of conservation interventions has found that only 8.8% reported the total cost of the intervention, and many of these were not detailed or standardised. ̽��ֱ��authors say this makes it very difficult to determine the cost-effectiveness of different interventions, and to make decisions on how to spend limited funding for biodiversity conservation.

̽��ֱ��review, by researchers in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, is published today in the journal BioScience. This is the first time that cost reporting across a broad range of wildlife conservation interventions has been reviewed.

“If we’re serious about addressing biodiversity loss, knowing the financial costs of interventions is as important as knowing their effectiveness. But the cost of projects is rarely reported for others to benefit from,” said Thomas White, a researcher in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology and first author of the paper.

Dr Silviu Petrovan, in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology and a co-author of the study, added: “Wildlife conservation across the world is severely limited by funding, and the lack of information on the cost-effectiveness of different interventions makes it very difficult to prioritise where this money is spent.”

̽��ֱ��work is part of the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Conservation Evidence project, led by Professor Bill Sutherland, which has compiled a huge resource of scientific information on the effectiveness of different conservation interventions. It is designed to support anyone making decisions about how to maintain and restore biodiversity.

For this new review, the team checked 1,987 studies in peer-reviewed journals and other reports - representing actions to conserve a range of different species and habitats - to see whether financial costs had been reported. Only 13.3% of these reported any financial costs at all.

“Even when costs are reported, the lack of consistency between reports makes it difficult for others to work out whether a cost is relevant to their project or not,” said Professor Bill Sutherland in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, a co-author of the study.

He added: “It’s frustrating because the people who implemented conservation projects probably do know how much they cost, it’s just that the information isn’t making its way into the scientific literature so others can benefit from it.”

̽��ֱ��review found that costs were reported more often for some specific types of intervention, such as those linked with agriculture – which the authors suggest could be due to the nature of farming as an income-driven activity. Planting hedgerows or wildflower strips on farmland to encourage wildlife, or applying herbicide to control invasive plants, for example, incur costs that farmers must factor into their operations and are easily measurable.

In addition, costs were reported more often for conservation projects in Africa than in other parts of the world. ̽��ֱ��authors suggest this could be because projects in African countries are more likely to be led by conservation organisations that must prioritise cost-effectiveness.

̽��ֱ��authors recommend that researchers, publishers and practitioners report the costs of conservation interventions in standardised formats, so that they can be used to improve decision-making by everyone planning a conservation project. They are now developing a framework to make it easier to report these costs.

“There are some easy steps to be taken to fix this - it’s just about creating a culture of reporting costs as part of reporting a conservation project, and making sure those costs are in a format that allows others to understand how much it would cost them to implement a similar action in a different context,” said White.

̽��ֱ��authors say that in healthcare settings there is also a need to efficiently allocate resources - but unlike in conservation, healthcare decision-makers have access to a developed body of work that collates and analyses information on effects and costs. ̽��ֱ��effectiveness of conservation interventions can be more difficult to evaluate because many factors may be involved - such as acceptability to local communities, or feasibility with the skills and equipment available - as well as cost.

At COP26 in Glasgow last year, world leaders recognised the connection between the global biodiversity crisis and the climate crisis – and the critical role that nature plays in both adapting to and mitigating climate change.

“We’re losing global biodiversity at an alarming rate - it’s a real risk to society, and we need to be serious about reversing that trend. To do it will require unprecedented conservation action at a scale we aren’t yet achieving and we don’t have the finances for. So we need to be really careful about selecting the most cost-effective interventions with the money we’ve got,” said White.

This research was conducted as part of a PhD, funded by the Balfour Studentship at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology.

Reference

White, TB et al: ‘What is the price of conservation; a review of the status quo and recommendations for improving cost reporting.’ BioScience, March 2022. DOI: 10.10.93/biosci/biac007

A new study has found that costs of conservation projects are rarely reported, making it difficult for others to make decisions on the most cost-effective interventions at a time when funding for biodiversity conservation is severely limited.

If we’re serious about addressing biodiversity loss, knowing the financial costs of interventions is as important as knowing their effectiveness

Thomas White

Frog

Yes

̽��ֱ��conservationist helping us to make better decisions

cg605 — Fri, 04 Jun 2021 10:26:31 +0000

Bill Sutherland has started a revolution in conservation. Put simply he’d “like us to stop doing the things that we know don't work and do more of the things that do” – and with global collaborators is building the tools to help people achieve this.

Beyond the pandemic: reduce the risk of animal viruses jumping to humans

lw355 — Thu, 30 Jul 2020 07:40:07 +0000

Cambridge zoologists Bill Sutherland and Silviu Petrovan warn that we must dramatically change the way we interact with animals to reduce the risk of this happening again.