探花直播 of Cambridge - Andrew Coburn

New approaches to help businesses tackle climate change

Anonymous — Wed, 26 Feb 2020 16:06:54 +0000

探花直播findings come from the Cambridge Climate Change Business Risk Index, a new component of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. 探花直播index is developed by the Centre for Risk Studies, with Cambridge Zero and British Antarctic Survey. 探花直播initial results will be announced today at an event for business leaders and climate scientists at Cambridge Judge Business School.

探花直播index incorporates climate model outputs to analyse and quantify the increasing risks of extreme weather events, and their potential to disrupt business operations and supply chains globally. Today鈥檚 event is designed to provide a platform for climate scientists to consult with the business community and ensure that final outputs meet business needs.

For example, the index shows that, by 2040, businesses in Chicago can expect a 50% chance of having an additional 20 days a year where average temperatures will exceed 25潞C and an additional week of days above 30潞C. It is expected that climate change will add around 20% to the global cost of extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts. It is estimated that extreme weather events will increase from reported losses at present running at an average of around $195 billion a year in direct costs to $234 billion by 2040, an increase of $39 billion a year at today鈥檚 values.

If the indirect costs from supply chain disruption and other knock-on economic consequences are factored in, it is possible that climate change could add over $100 billion of loss each year to the global economy.

Accurately quantifying this kind of information on business-relevant timescales will help businesses plan for their increased exposure to heatwaves and other climate-related risks.

Climate change is a growing concern for businesses. Many corporations are trying to understand how it is likely to affect them, the actions that they may need to undertake for sustainability as well as commercial and competitive reasons, and the regulatory requirements or other liabilities they may face.

鈥淐ompanies are struggling to reconcile the long-range forecasts of the consequences of a warmer planet in several decades鈥� time, with weather changes that are already impacting their businesses in various ways, and how their business will be affected by the transitions that society is making today towards a low-carbon economy,鈥� said Dr Andrew Coburn, Chief Scientist at the Centre for Risk Studies.

探花直播探花直播 of Cambridge has recently launched Cambridge Zero, which brings together its research, policy, and private sector engagement activities on climate change and zero-carbon solutions.

鈥淐ambridge Zero provides an opportunity for the 探花直播鈥檚 research expertise to contribute information and tools for use by businesses, as well as policymakers and other stakeholders,鈥� said Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Director of Cambridge Zero.

Today鈥檚 event brings together business executives with climate scientists to help improve the dialogue between the two, with the aim of allowing businesses to articulate what they need from the science to aid their business decisions, and for scientists to help businesses understand the risks that they face and to provide information and data in formats that businesses can readily consume.

探花直播event is hosted by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, in collaboration with Cambridge Zero, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, Hughes Hall Centre for Climate Change Engagement, and Chapter Zero.

Climate change could add around 20% to the global cost of extreme weather events by 2040, according to early findings from Cambridge researchers, who are urging businesses to evaluate their own exposures to the growing risk to improve their resilience and sustainability.

Number of days per year with mean daily temperatures above 25 degrees - 1979-2018 compared with 2018-2059

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Planning for war: a guide for businesses

Anonymous — Thu, 19 Feb 2015 03:29:35 +0000

探花直播turmoil of 2014 was a timely reminder to businesses that they need to be prepared and have contingency plans for global conflict. 探花直播crisis in Ukraine brought Russia and the West to the brink of military confrontation; relations between Japan and China became more fraught; and the year ended with the US and North Korea in something approaching what headline writers like to call 鈥渃yber war鈥�.

探花直播period since the end of World War II has seen no armed conflict between major military powers. Historians have dubbed this period 鈥� 探花直播Long Peace鈥� 鈥� but of course even this time span has not been conflict free. In fact, records suggest more than a million deaths in at least 700 conflicts in the past 25 years.

Last year鈥檚 tensions have alerted company leaders to this. They have reawakened to the potential for regional conflicts disrupting their international operations, playing havoc with a fragile global economy and causing chaos in the markets. When Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was downed while flying over conflict zones in Ukraine, causing the deaths of 298 people travelling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, it reminded the international community of the ease with which what appear to be remote crises can touch us all.

Risk analysis

This is reflected in the World Economic Forum鈥檚 annual survey of threats of concern to world leaders and captains of industry. 探花直播WEF鈥檚 Global Risks 2015 report finds that interstate conflict is now the highest concern 鈥� with infectious diseases, water crises, extreme weather events, cyber attacks, unemployment and failures of national governments as other top worries. Only a year ago, interstate conflict didn鈥檛 make the WEF鈥檚 top 10 risks at all.

In fact, though, the rise of interstate conflict as an area of top concern is long overdue. As 2014 has shown, today鈥檚 business leaders need to be aware of the kinds of crises and conflicts that might be expected over the business cycle of the next five to 10 years.

It would certainly be remarkable 鈥� unprecedented even 鈥� if there were no conflicts during the next decade. Even the most peaceful decades in history have seen minor conflicts every few years. Most decades since the mid-19th century have seen an average of two conflicts involving at least medium-ranked powers. At least one decade in five could be expected to see a regional war involving a G20 nation, most typically a proxy war between superpowers. History shows that supposedly 鈥渦nthinkable鈥� wars have a nasty habit of surprising people 鈥� even the war leaders who instigate them.

Risk hotspots

Analysis for our risk studies centre by Cytora Ltd, a research partner specialising in geopolitical risk, identifies more than 100 potential scenarios for two nation states to spark off a military conflict in the next decade 鈥� gauged from recent antagonist statements towards each other, antithetical values and historical enmity.

探花直播risk map of future conflicts identifies a number of regional hot-spots, including the obvious Middle East, central and eastern Africa, the eastern European margins, the Indian subcontinent, parts of Latin America and the emerging South-East Asian powers. Wherever they can get the information from, businesses would do well to incorporate this kind of research into their strategic thinking. Forewarned is forearmed. Conflicts threaten employees in the theatre of war, they disrupt supply chains, reduce demand for goods, and unsettle investment markets.

探花直播various stress tests we have developed 鈥� for interstate conflict, pandemics, social unrest and more 鈥� illustrate what a company might experience from a catastrophic event such as regional war.

Hypothetical stress test scenario

In the hypothetical 鈥渨hat-if鈥� scenario to help businesses assess their resilience to interstate conflict, we imagine an escalating spiral of military tension between China and Japan, based on Pentagon war games. 探花直播ensuing outbreak of hostilities disrupts trade across a wide area of South-East Asia.

Many US and European businesses have strong economic stakes in the region, including outsourced manufacturing to the region, providing services to growing markets there, and managing supply chains through and around the region.

China and Japan are the world鈥檚 second and third largest economies and they create US$120 billion of exports, much of which are shipped through the South China Sea. 探花直播scenario envisions much of this being halted by a naval sea exclusion zone that freezes the activities of six of the world鈥檚 largest ports, and prevents almost half of the world鈥檚 container traffic passing through it.

Militarised restricted air space prevents commercial air traffic across the combatant countries, which stops flights from five of the world鈥檚 top 20 airports, handling 8% of world passenger traffic and 46% of air freight.

探花直播scenario tests the ability of businesses to manage this type and scale of crisis. Supply chains, major markets and regional offices have to be reconfigured quickly. Businesses have to review their global exposures and identify concentration risks and choke points in their operations that could be impacted. Currency exchange rates will fluctuate wildly. Business counter-parties could find themselves in distress, so companies need to consider credit-risk tolerance and cash flows during a crisis of this kind.

Company boards might be tempted to skirt round the idea of such unthinkable catastrophes? But for thoughtful businesses, it is certainly something worth thinking about.

探花直播risk of interstate conflict and its impact on business is presented in the proceedings of a Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies seminar, held in London on February 19, 2015.

This article was originally published on 探花直播Conversation. Read the original article.

Dr Andrew Coburn of聽the Cambridge Judge Business School writes on 探花直播Conversation website about how business leaders have reawakened to the risk of regional conflict, and discusses research carried out at the Centre for Risk Studies on bad-news scenarios ranging from cyber war to regional conflict to pandemic.

探花直播World Economic Forum鈥檚 annual survey of threats of concern to world leaders and captains of industry... finds that interstate conflict is now the highest concern.

Andrew Coburn

Vladimir Pletenev

Still 探花直播Brave Tin Soldiers

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