̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Winton Capital Management

New Cambridge centre sets out to prove we are not in a “post-truth” society

ag236 — Tue, 01 Nov 2016 23:59:59 +0000

Whether it is individuals making choices about their lives, or government officials determining policy, we all rely on evidence. From deciding what medical treatment is best for you, to selecting the best place for an airport runway, statistical evidence helps to inform personal and collective decision making. But the numbers are often presented in ways that are intended to coerce rather than inform.

A new Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, based at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Faculty of Mathematics, aims to counter this tendency by ensuring that risk, data and evidence is presented in a clear and balanced way to all of us.

Supported through generous gifts of £5 million by Winton Philanthropies, the Centre will use its knowledge and experience to encourage wide adoption of the best known methods of communicating quantitative evidence clearly and without bias.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk and Chair of the new Centre’s Executive Board, said:

“We reject claims that we live in a 'post-truth' society, and that people are fed up with experts. We do acknowledge, however, that the public, professionals and policy-makers are often ill-served by the way in which evidence is communicated. We hope to work with others to improve how this is done, and empower people to make informed decisions that reflect both existing scientific evidence and their personal values.”

̽��ֱ��Centre will carry out research into how we all make decisions in order to develop the best ways to present data, and will be driven by the needs of different audiences. “As far as we know,” said Professor Spiegelhalter, “it will be the first of its kind in the world.”

One of the Centre’s first projects will be to adapt a website to describe clearly the potential benefits and harms of alternative treatments for women with early breast cancer, for use both by doctors and patients.

Professor Spiegelhalter has other examples of the use of evidence in medical stories in his sight: “Take, for instance, the recent media stories about a new test for Down’s syndrome which the NHS is going to adopt as part of the screening programme offered to pregnant women. ̽��ֱ��analysis offered does not consider factors that may be of substantial public interest, such as the potential number of terminations. This is an important issue, both for people expecting children and citizens judging policies in society, but the story is rather more complicated than has been reported so far. We intend our Centre to help in communicating such numbers in a clear way, while acknowledging inevitable uncertainty.”

Speaking ahead of the launch of the Winton Centre, David Harding, founder and CEO of the Winton Group, said: “I know from experience that we often apply quantitative methods to justify our own prejudices. General understanding of statistical reasoning in finance is poor, but I think this also applies to other fields where the stakes are even higher, including medicine and the law. This new Centre will help individuals, governments and the media communicate numerical evidence and risk in much better ways.”

Building on the success of the Winton Programme for the Public Understanding of Risk, the Centre will have four mains strands of activity: collaboration in producing clear descriptions and visualisations of evidence, monitoring and reviewing the communication of statistics, publicising best practice, and engaging widely with UK and international media.

̽��ֱ��Centre’s Executive Director, former BBC producer Dr Alexandra Freeman, said: “Numerical evidence should be a valuable tool for us all to form opinions and make decisions. But when it is presented in such a way as to try to persuade us, rather than inform us, we all rightly start to doubt it.”

“We want to present balanced, transparent quantitative evidence about both the pros and cons of different possible actions so that people can make their own informed decisions based on something they can trust. We also want to help professionals, policy-makers and the media in the handling and presentation of numbers and the evidence behind them. Around the world, statistics are badly abused by those who want to influence our opinions - we want to stop that and put their power back into the hands of individuals.”

www.maths.cam.ac.uk/research/winton-centre-risk-and-evidence-communication

̽��ֱ��Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication aims to ensure that facts on important issues are presented in ways that are accurate, transparent and relevant

We reject claims that we live in a 'post-truth' society, and that people are fed up with experts. We do acknowledge, however, that the public is ill-served by the way in which evidence is communicated.

Prof David Spiegelhalter

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

Yes

Winton Symposium‘s material world

sj387 — Thu, 05 Sep 2013 12:47:33 +0000

This year’s focus on ‘Materials Discovery’ will bring together leading scientists from around the world, revealing unexpected breakthroughs in a wide range of subjects from electronics to life sciences.

Attendance is free, and with last year’s inaugural ‘Energy Efficiency’ event drawing a large audience of researchers and industrialists from a range of disciplines, the event promises to be popular - so pre-registration is essential.

This year’s sessions for the one-day symposium will be:

Session I

Professor Chris Wise, designer of the award-winning London 2012 Velodrome, will open the symposium by focusing on sustainability in the engineering industry. Exploring current thoughts on demand reduction, the global problem of shrinking resources and an expanding population, Wise will discuss how these issues can inform innovative building design.

Session II

From great structures to the microscopic, graphene Nobel prize-winner Professor Sir Konstantin Novoselov from the ̽��ֱ�� of Manchester will explore the world of ultrathin films and their unexpected properties. This will be followed by Professor Paul Alivisatos, Director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, one of the pioneers in the field of nanocrystals, who will address the design of these minute structures and reveal their practical applications.

Session III

Professor Jason Chin from the Cambridge/MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology will delve into the building blocks of biological world. Despite their complexity, Chin will show how these structures can be manipulated to create new forms of functional materials, and share his research into the production of artificial genetic code. Professor Daniel Fletcher from ̽��ֱ�� of California, Berkeley, who has been studying the mechanics and dynamics of cell movement, will look at the self-organisation of biological structures.

Session IV

Finally, two leading scientists with backgrounds in chemistry will cover their latest breakthroughs. Professor Ben Feringa from the ̽��ֱ�� of Groningen has designed a wide range of synthetic materials, and will talk about his leading research in the field of 'molecular motors'. Professor George Whitesides, one of the leading material scientists of his generation and Professor at Department of Chemistry at Harvard ̽��ֱ�� will discuss his multi- disciplinary research with applications ranging from biology to microelectronics.

Dr Nalin Patel, Programme Manager for Winton Programme, said: “We are delighted to welcome world-leading scientists to Cambridge to explore some of the recent breakthroughs in materials research, and how they may have an impact on societies needs in the future.”

For more information, please contact Dr Nalin Patel: nlp28@cam.ac.uk; 01223 760302

On 30 September, the Department of Physics will host the second annual Winton Symposium at the Cavendish Laboratory on ‘Materials Discovery’.

We are delighted to welcome world-leading scientists to Cambridge to explore some of the recent breakthroughs in materials research, and how they may have an impact on societies needs in the future

Dr Nalin Patel, Programme Manager for Winton Programme

Cambridge Cavendish Laboratory

SEM image of 1-5 micrometer large silica particles attached to 50 micrometer large paraffin spheres

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Yes

How risky is your breakfast?

lw355 — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 11:00:51 +0000

Like it or not, risks get communicated to us every day. Whether it’s the climate, the euro crisis or the booze, someone is warning us to change our ways or we may be in trouble. We may get irritated by all this finger-wagging, but there is a serious science that can be applied to all these messages.

Let’s assume we want to communicate some risk. Are we trying to inform people or persuade them to do something? ̽��ֱ��traditional view is that these were much the same thing: the public are ‘irrational’ because they are ill-informed, and so if we just educate people then they will not hold misguided beliefs and do silly things.

Fortunately this ‘deficit model’ has been superseded by a slightly more sophisticated view, which recognises that people vary considerably, and that their reactions and behaviour are not going to be primarily influenced by the information they receive. Their ‘affect’ – that is the overall positive or negative feeling of individuals towards a potential hazard – is vital, and this is influenced by context, culture and habit. These feelings can be tricky to change, and the simple provision of information can have minimal influence. In contrast, the advice of a trusted source can be crucial.

This may appear rather discouraging, but we have an ethical duty to provide transparent information so that people can, if they wish, weigh up the pros and cons, set their own risk threshold and decide what to do. This is the mind-set underlying the Winton Programme for the Public Understanding of Risk; our team tries to explain risk and debunk myths by engaging the public through stories, creating attractive graphics and entertaining animations, and explaining the ideas behind the numbers.

So what are ethical and transparent representations? First, we need to recognise that there will always be an emotional aspect to the communication, whether it’s the images used or even the colours. Advertisers exploit this all the time. Second, more philosophically, I would argue that there is no ‘true risk’ in the sense that these chances and values actually exist as part of the outside world – they are constructed on the basis of our judgement and knowledge. This means we have to use metaphor and narrative to communicate.

Let’s assume that we are willing to put numbers on the chances. For example, a recent newspaper story reported a 20% increased risk of developing pancreatic cancer per 50 g of processed meat eaten per day. Such relative risk formats have been shown in controlled trials to exaggerate the magnitude of effects, and so instead it is recommended (and even mandated by the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry) that absolute risks are used. ̽��ֱ��lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer is 1 in 80; however, if we look at this risk in terms of how many people out of 400 might be expected to develop pancreatic cancer after a daily healthy breakfast (five) compared with a bacon sandwich (six), the difference doesn’t look very impressive.

I have been collaborating with Dr Mike Aitken in the Department of Experimental Psychology on the Big Risk Test run by BBC Lab UK, in which over 60,000 participants have taken part in an online randomised trial of different formats and images. ̽��ֱ��insights gained are being used to help design revised patient information leaflets and websites for a cancer screening programme in the UK.

But in many situations there is deeper uncertainty, and we are rightly not so happy to give concrete numbers to risks. ̽��ֱ��National Risk Register gives wide intervals for the chances of various disasters occurring, while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other organisations have developed measures of ‘confidence’ or star ratings for their risk analyses. ̽��ֱ��UK government officially encourages the acknowledgement of such scientific uncertainty, but can we retain trust if we are so open?

Fortunately there are signs that these issues are being taken seriously, with the House of Commons Select Committee for Science and Technology recently recommending a Risk Communication Strategy Group across government. But a problem is that this area cuts across many academic boundaries, and there is little focused infrastructure in the UK. Risk communication is a topic that deserves investment in research and training.

Understanding how the numbers add up in relation to risk can help us deal with our own uncertainty, as David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, explains.

I would argue that there is no ‘true risk’ in the sense that these chances and values actually exist as part of the outside world – they are constructed on the basis of our judgement and knowledge.

Professor David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk

121026_spegielhalter-graphic

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Yes

Physics of sustainability programme launched

bjb42 — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:12:33 +0000

An innovative programme which will focus on using physics to meet the growing demand on our natural resources was launched today at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory.

̽��ֱ��programme is the brainchild of David Harding, the founder, chairman and head of research of Winton Capital Management, who has pledged to donate £20 million to the Cavendish, Cambridge's Department of Physics, to set up and fund ̽��ֱ��Winton Programme for the Physics of Sustainability.

His gift, the largest donation to the lab since its creation in 1874, will create a new programme for the physics of sustainability to make new technologies available which address the challenges facing society. There will be a strong emphasis upon fundamental physics research into such areas as renewable energy - to include photovoltaics, electrical storage, etc - that will have important implications for the sustainability agenda in the long-term.

David Willetts, Minister for Universities and Science, visited the Cavendish this morning to mark the launch. As of today, the ̽��ֱ�� is also inviting applications for up to four advanced research fellowships with the Winton Programme, as well as scholarships for PhD students. ̽��ֱ��advanced research fellowships will support outstanding scientists and will allow them to develop an independent research career. Details can be found at: https://www.winton.phy.cam.ac.uk/

"Cambridge has a slogan: ' ̽��ֱ��Freedom to Discover' and I am hoping I can give the scientists of the Cavendish more freedom to discover," says David Harding. "I studied theoretical physics at Cambridge, and the Cavendish has always had the reputation of attracting the finest minds in the world.

"While it is not quite as simple as using physics to save the world, this is an opportunity to use, for example, quantum physics to develop materials with seemingly miraculous properties that could combat the growing effect humans are having on the planet. I want to encourage research to keep the skies blue."

David's donation will help the Cavendish Laboratory, the birthplace of molecular biology and nuclear physics, cement its position at the forefront of the next revolution in physics. ̽��ֱ��donation will support programmes that explore basic science that can generate the new technologies and new industries that will be needed to meet the demands of a growing population on our already strained natural resources.

Some of the areas which will be explored as part of the Winton Programme include:

Designer Materials - Atom by atom manipulation and growth for the creation of new chemical environments with desirable properties. Using materials chemistry for molecular engineering, the scientists hope to change the properties of materials by applying extreme conditions of temperature, pressure, and magnetic and electric fields to search for emergent properties such as superconductivity or magnetism. ̽��ֱ��ultimate goals might include: a room temperature superconductor; a new material which would revolutionise refrigeration; electrical storage densities to rival gasoline; and new mechanisms for thermoelectricity to scavenge heat from the environment.

Light and matter - ̽��ֱ��primary source of energy on our planet is sunlight. Converting light to useful stored energy needs materials with controlled quantum chemistry, delivered on a vast scale in cheap and robust devices. One possibility is the use of photovoltaics, which convert solar radiation into energy. However, they require both strong optical absorption and good electrical transport, two challenging physics problems which the programme will explore.

Self-assembly - Energy applications will need nanoscale engineering that can be delivered by the tonne and will therefore require the invention of new manufacturing methods. Biology currently holds the only examples of functional and interacting structures at the nanoscale, using nanomachines for everything from photosynthesis to the transfer of energy through cells. ̽��ֱ��scientists will strive to replace top-down fabrication by bottom-up self-assembly of structures, using natural systems for inspiration and exploiting a mixture of physical processes and programmed methods.

Multiscale modelling - Developing novel sustainable materials and technologies will require an understanding of how quantum mechanical models on atomic scales can be melded with classical modelling on large scales, and to model physical processes on time scales from picoseconds to seconds. Advances in computational techniques will enable massive simulations of large-scale systems to be carried out at the quantum level. Work will strive to integrate modelling with experiment, and eventually use it to design complex devices.

̽��ֱ��Vice-Chancellor, Professor Sir Leszek Borysiewicz, said: " ̽��ֱ�� ̽��ֱ�� is most grateful to David for this donation, which is truly exceptional both in its generosity and in its vision of translating fundamental discoveries in physics, to meet one of the most pressing needs of our generation."

̽��ֱ��programme's inaugural director is Sir Richard Friend, the Cavendish Professor of Physics and a world-renowned leading expert on the physics, materials science and engineering of semiconductor devices.

Remarking on the impact of the donation, Sir Richard said: "Advances in fundamental physics have always had the capacity to solve very real problems. This programme will support the people with the radical ideas that bring practical solutions - very much the Cambridge way of doing science."

Since graduating from Cambridge in 1982, David Harding has become one of the most successful fund managers in the world. Early on he recognised the advantages of hiring individuals with science backgrounds. Winton currently employs over 90 researchers with PhDs or Master's Degrees in subjects including extragalactic astrophysics, mathematics, statistics, particle physics, planetary science and artificial intelligence.

̽��ֱ��programme will provide PhD studentships, research fellowships, and support for new academic staff as well as investment in research infrastructure of the highest level, pump-priming for novel research projects, support for collaborations within the ̽��ֱ�� and outside, and sponsorship for meetings and outreach activities.

Further details regarding the now advertised fellowships and scholarships can be found at https://www.winton.phy.cam.ac.uk/ and enquires can be addressed to winton@phy.cam.ac.uk

Funded by a £20 million donation from David Harding, the Winton Programme for the Physics of Sustainability aims to address some of the major challenges affecting the modern world.

While it is not quite as simple as using physics to save the world, this is an opportunity to develop materials with seemingly miraculous properties that could combat the growing effect humans are having on the planet.

David Harding

Phil Mynott

Sir Richard Friend and David Harding

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Yes